（歡迎轉載本文但請註明FDA原出處網址） 以下摘錄並翻譯自美國食品藥物管制局於2006年9月18日舉行之"可傳播性海綿狀腦症" 諮詢委員會會議紀錄，詳見 http://www.fda.gov/ohrms/dockets/ac/06/transcripts/1006-4240t1.htm Dr. Lisa Ferguson is employed by USDA in Hyattsville, Maryland. 麗莎弗格森博士是馬里蘭州海茲維爾市美國農業部之聘雇人員。 Dr. Lisa Ferguson: 麗莎弗格森博士： As everybody knows, we have been doing active surveillance in the United States since 1990, and we are targeting the population where the disease is most likely to be diagnosed. That is the most efficient way for us to conduct a surveillance system. 眾所皆知，自從1990年以來，在美國，我們一直實施動態監測，針對那些最有可能被診 斷出疾病的群體做檢查。對於我們來說，想要施行監測系統，這是最有效率的方法。 The assumption is that if we can't find disease in that population, then it is even more unlikely for us to find it in the non-targeted population. 其背後的假設是，如果我們在該群體中找不到疾病，那麼，我們就更不可能在其它未被 鎖定的群體中找到。 So, we can use the data that we get from that targeted sampling to extrapolate information to the broader cattle population. 所以，我們可以使用從那些被鎖定樣本中得到的資料，來廣泛推論其它牛隻群體的情況。 ... DR. EPSTEIN: Lisa, my question is, does USDA have information about food chain controls in non-U.S. countries? Are we in a position to comment how adequate the food chain controls are from country to country? 亞培斯坦博士：麗莎，我想問的是，對於美國以外的其它國家的食物鏈控管，美國農業部 是否有相關的資訊？我們有沒有能力評估國與國之間的食物鏈控管是否得宜？ DR. FERGUSON: I can speak for AFIS per se, since we are not the food safety group. That is really not part of the information that we have. 弗格森博士：我只能為動物與食品產業部門發言，因為我們不是食品安全團體。關於那個 部分的資訊，我們真得不瞭解。 ... MS. KRANITZ: Dr. Ferguson, in the United Kingdom and Japan they have found cases of BSE in animals that are not symptomatic. So, I would like to know why the USDA doesn't consider random sampling of healthy stock. 庫朗妮茲小姐：弗格森博士，英國與日本都有在無症狀的動物身上發現牛海綿狀腦症的 許多案例。因此，我想知道為什麼美國農業部不考慮對健康牲畜進行隨機抽樣調查？ Dr. Ferguson: ... In the United States, the purpose of our surveillance program is animal health monitoring, to help us define either the presence or the absence of disease in the U.S. cattle population. The purpose is not to identify each and every individual case of BSE that might be out there. In fact, that is an impossibility to do with current test methods that are there. 弗格森博士： ... 在美國，我們的監測作業目的是監測動物的健康情形，以幫助我們 瞭解美國牛隻群體是否存在著疾病。其目的不是去確認每一個可能存在的牛海綿狀腦症 個案。事實上，以現有的測量方法，這是不可能做到的事。 ... DR. HOGAN: In terms of identifying your targeted population, how are those animals being identified? Is it by government employees or by industry, and what is your sense of the compliance rate? 侯根博士：在劃定你們的目標群體這個方面，這些動物是如何被劃分出來的？是由政府 雇員或業者劃分的？而妳認為實際上被執行的比率有多少？ DR. FERGUSON: We have had very good cooperation with the industry over the past two years, actually since 1990, since we have been doing surveillance. As everybody knows, our surveillance is not mandatory. We do have some regulatory authority to do that, but we have chosen not to exercise it at this point in time. We have gotten where we are today with cooperation with the industry. 弗格森博士：過去這兩年來，事實上是從1990年以來，從我們開始實施監測以來，我們 與業者之間皆有非常良好的合作關係。眾所皆知，我們的監測並非強制性的。我們的確有 權進行管制，但目前我們選擇不展現我們的權力。透過與業者的合作，我們才有今日的成 就。 ... Summary of WHO Consultation on Distribution of Infectivity in Tissues 世界衛生組織感染傳播諮詢委員會意見摘要 DR. ASHER: ... Finally, as Dot Scott reviewed for you today, due to uncertainties in the assumptions -- you will hear more about that in the next meeting also -- it is very difficult to offer confident predictions regarding the probability of variant CJD infections, not to mention illnesses in people exposed to various blood components and plasma derivatives. 亞瑟博士： ... 最後，如同今天道特史考特為你們評論的，由於各種假設的不確定性-- 你們也會在下一場會議聽到更多關於此方面的報告--對於變種庫賈氏症感染的可能性， 我們很難提出有把握的預測，至於要預測那些接觸各種血液成分與血漿製品的人們會引 發的疾病，那就更別提了。 ____________________________________________________________________________ （補上：我的感想） 由此可知，美國從未對牛隻進行全面普查，也從未進行全面的隨機抽樣調查。學過基本 統計學的人都知道，在母群體有偏差且抽樣方法不恰當的情形下，無法進行有意義的統 計。此外，關於庫賈氏症傳染的各種可能性，科學家仍在研究當中且尚無定論，更何況 已知人類受感染後至發病的潛伏期可長達十年以上，在不知道有多少人已感染及如何感 染且不知道有多少美國牛已被感染的情形下，根本不可能算出吃美國牛後得病的正確機 率。 --

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