來源: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2007/insider/columns/ story?columnist=thorpe_david&page=ScoutingCavaliersPistons-Game3 Scouts Inc. update: Cavaliers vs. Pistons, Game 3 Thorpe By David Thorpe Scouts Inc. (Archive) Insider Updated: May 26, 2007 * Comment * Email * Print ‧ Cavs-Pistons series scouting report | Series page For the second consecutive game, Cleveland had more rebounds than the Pistons, made more free throws, had more steals, forced more turnovers and still lost the game. Their 40 percent shooting from the field just was not enough to earn the win. Specifically, it is their fourth-quarter efforts that are coming up short (they were awful in the third quarter of Game 2 as well, but still took a three-point lead into the fourth). Detroit is confident that in a tight game, its experience will come through just enough to earn a victory. Games 1 and 2 served to deepen that confidence. But the reality is that those games were decided by fractions of inches and seconds of time, and Cleveland knows that they can compete with the Pistons and even take the series with just a tiny upgrade of offense and some momentum. Home court can provide a little of both. Conversely, the Pistons play best when they respect their opponent, perhaps even fear them a little, so it is likely that they will play better at Cleveland, knowing how close they are to trailing 0-2. To upgrade its offense, Cleveland may look to increase its transition looks. Detroit, in Game 2, showed a soft man-to-man look every time LeBron James caught the ball in the half-court. Tayshaun Prince guarded him relatively tightly, and the two closest perimeter defenders shaded toward James. They know James wants to drive, and their aim is to force him to his midrange game. James' mindset is hurting him here -- instead of recognizing the opportunities to get a midrange jumper, he is trying too hard to get closer looks and often taking any shot he can get near the rim, where the Pistons' long defenders appear even longer because of the shallow shooting angle he has so close to the rim. Or he is taking one-dribble jumpers -- and it is very hard to create enough space after just one dribble when defended by Prince. Last season, Dwyane Wade, when defended in this manner, would often keep his dribble alive while searching for a great midrange spot, and when he found if he would jump up and shoot with confidence. James needs to take a similar tack more often. Of course, amping up the transition game would help James as well and get him some open looks, which would build his confidence and impact the rest of his game. Even though the other Cavs are likely to play and shoot better at home than they did on the road, they should not expect the Pistons to change their defensive strategy until James makes them do so. They seem prepared to let the other Cavs score as long as James does not. Detroit's defensive orientation towards James makes it susceptible to the skip pass, which James has utilized occassionally. He can follow that skip pass with a face-cut and a post up and take advantage of the rotating Pistons defenders. Once they are all set, of course, their effectiveness improves markedly. Detroit's offensive performace thus far has been, in one word, awful. Bailed out by a few big shots by Chauncey Billups in Game 1 and Rasheed Wallace in Game 2, the Pistons should not assume they can always find someone to step up late after struggling all game. They are settling for too much 5-on-5 action against a team that excels at forcing that action and then defending it. Cleveland's ability to slow down the Pistons' plays (pin-downs, single-doubles, and ball-screens) by helping quickly and recovering even more quickly, coupled with Detroit's willingness to grind things out every trip, put the Cavs in position to win both games. On the road, Detroit must be greedier on offense. Since Cleveland will likely run more, the Pistons want to avoid getting into a true running game, yet when they have numbers they should jump on the chance to get a good, quick shot. It may be the only way to get many open looks. This puts enormous pressure on Billups, who did not handle pressure well in Detroit. His 12 turnovers to just 11 assists so far is the biggest surprise of this series. Detroit is enoying a fine series by Wallace, but Billups will be the key to stealing at least one game in Cleveland, especially considering that Prince is 1-for-19 from the field, so focused is he on defending James. With two teams struggling so on offense and two razor-sharp defenses, it is difficult to project which team will find its shooting touch first. Since Detroit has been struggling since the middle of the Chicago series on offense and with Cleveland going home to a wild crowd, I give the Cavs a slight advantage to tighten up this series in another close game. One caveat: If either team can get hot from 3-point range, that could swing the game and give us the first blowout of the series. PREDICTION: Cleveland wins Game 3 -- "I've got a busted lip and a black eye. But you do what you have to do." -- Ben Wallace --

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