Ht: 6-6 Wt: 230 B/T: R/R HS: Harvard Westlake HS Grad: 2012 City: Santa Monica State: CA Country: United States 1/17/12: If you are a believer in writing scripts before the event, the next six months of Lucas Giolito’s life, and indeed potentially the next 20 years, is outstanding script material. Of course, Giolito is no stranger to scripts. His mother is well known actress Lindsay Frost, his father, Rick, is one of the icons of the computer game industry (former EA Vice President, co-founder of Trilogy Studios). For those who are serious about the draft, it's a well-known fact that there has never been a high school right handed pitcher picked with the first overall pick. That dates back to 1965 and encompasses many past (Ryan, Gossage, Sutter, Eckersley, etc) and future (Maddox, Smoltz, Hoffman, maybe Clemens, etc.) Hall of Famers and even more Cy Young Award winners. There have been some teases the past two years in Jamison Taillon (No. 2 overall in 2010) and Dylan Bundy (No. 4 in 2011) but the last really serious candidate was Josh Beckett in 1999, who went down to the wire with Josh Hamilton to be the then Tampa Bay Devil Rays top pick. The right series of events and circumstances has to come together just right to have a teenage right handed pitcher selected first overall. Having that type of talent is the first obvious criteria and Giolito unquestionably has that (more on that below). But just as importantly, there has to be the right team, the right competitors (or lack thereof) for the pick and the right signability. The new CBA and the bonus slots should eliminate much of the major signability posturing and gamesmanship that can affect the top pick. The Astros, holders of the first pick, should have no inhibitions about picking Giolito based on their personnel (remember, new GM Jeff Luhnow picked Shelby Miller out of high school while with St. Louis and certainly enjoyed the benefits of having former HS first rounder Chris Carpenter on the Cardinals staff). As for the comparisons for the top pick, I think it will come down to Giolito vs. Stanford’s Mark Appel. The advantage for Giolito (or potentially Appel for that matter) is that the scouting directors and cross checkers will frequently see both pitchers throw within a couple days of each other, maybe on back to back days, and be able to make an immediate comparison. They will see similar stuff, with the advantage potentially belonging to the pitcher who is almost exactly three years younger. Giolito’s baseball package is certainly without question. He’s a very young senior and won't turn 18 years old until after the July 13 signing deadline. He's a well proportioned 6-foot-6, 240 pounds and really doesn't need to get that much stronger, just maintain his looseness and athleticism. If he were to get stronger while maintaining that looseness, that will be really scary. He threw a series of short outings this fall and was consistently in the 95-98 mph range with his fastball….as in rarely falling below 95 mph, with reports of him touching 100. He works downhill very well with his fastball and while he could command the pitch better, he doesn't throw with much effort. Despite the incredible power behind his fastball, most everyone agrees that his best future pitch could be his curveball, just as Nolan Ryan's curveball was actually a nastier pitch than his 100 mph heater. He throws his traditional version of the pitch in the low-80s and it is deep and sharp, a true knee buckler for any hitter at any level when throw properly. He also has been working on developing a harder version of the pitch thrown in the 84-87 range that he calls his 'wipeout' curve. Giolito throws a change up on rare occasions but that isn't really a present consideration in evaluating him. When it gets right down to it, though, it might not be the Astros decision, it will be Giolito and his family's. The money, even at $7.2 million for the first pick, probably isn’t going to be a deciding factor. Giolito is a very good student and is the type of young man who could put the value of the college experience at UCLA above any other consideration. And it's certainly worth noting that Gerrit Cole entered UCLA in 2008 after turning down high first round money and emerged three years later as the first pick in the 2011 draft. It will be a fascinating script all spring and into the early summer, that's for sure. http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=268321 --

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