http://farmauthority.dcsportsnet.com/?p=825 by Brian J Oliver The 2006 MLB winter meetings begin today in Orlando, FL and according to a report from Barry Svrluga, the Nationals are not likely to be players in the happenings this week. Svrluga highlights a very conservative picture: We're not going to make short-term decisions to improve our team by inches,” General Manager Jim Bowden said. “We’re more interested in improving our team by light years down the road. We will always listen, and kick the tires on any and all transactions that might give us a possibility to improve our long-term plan. But we’re not looking for short-term fixes, because that could hurt the long-term fixes we really need to make.” The message that has been the mantra of the team is building a foundation for the future through re-establishing the farm system and focusing on player development. There is no question the Naitonals need to resurrect a system that was emptied and ignored during MLB’s stewardship. The underlying question I have is this. How can the team expect rebuild its farm system given its proposed conservative strategy which eschews signing any free agents in the near term? There is merit to this thought when it concerns the signing of Type A free agents. These signings would require the Nationals sacrifice draft picks they require to rebuild the farm system. But in the new collective bargaining agreement, Type B free agents no longer cost a signing team a pick of any sort. An example of this is the apparent loss of OF Jose Guillen to the Seattle Mariners. Guillen, a Type B free agent, will give the Nationals a first round supplemental selection. As of today, this means the Nationals possess five selections out of the first sixty picks in the 2007 draft. This should be valuable in their rebuilding effort. However, what is puzzling is the Nationals decision to not over arbitration to SP Ramon Ortiz, another Type B free agent, who if signed elsewhere would have returned an additional top sixty selection in the 2007 draft. The reason given by the front office was a concern Ortiz would accept the offer and potentially cost the Nationals “a raise to about $8 million for 2007.” I can only conjecture there was a conversation with Ortiz (or his agent) that led to this supposition. There is precedent to unofficial handshake deals whereby a player will agree to refuse an arbitration offer and continue his negotiations. For a Type B free agent like Ortiz, this is done to allow the Nationals to protect their rights to draft pick compensation while at the same time not altering the market for Ortiz with other teams. Another concern of this conservative strategy is that it leaves the Nationals in the future position of having to develop a farm system with only one selection per round in 2008 and out. At present, the Nationals have no one who will be a Type A or B free agent after the 2007 season and only Jose Vidro and Cristian Guzman have the potential of returning compensation as free agents after 2008. Update: Additionally, Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns will be free agents after 2008. It would not be out of the question to think of them as Type A free agents, but one would expect the Nationals view Kearns and Lopez as part of the rebuilding effort in Washington. I’ve updated the table below with their compensation as projected Type Bs (erring on the conservative side) Draft Estimated # picks Top 100 2007 6 2008 3 2009 7 (assuming four Type Bs) This is not necessarily conducive to a near term rebuilding effort as the most promising of prospects are typically selected early on in the draft. By signing middle of the road Type B free agents to one or two year deals, the Nationals provide themselves with a few opportunities. First, they can trade these players during the season for prospects, or, at worst, get the opportunity to stockpile draft picks with rebuilding in mind. This is not a novel concept. Teams like Oakland and Boston have stockpiled draft picks recently and used this leverage to help restock depleted farm systems. In the Nationals’s favor, the man in charge of overseeing the scouting, Mike Rizzo, did an admirable job in the past for the Diamondbacks, armed with most often with no more than his own picks. While there is certainly value in the plan underway, the Nationals may need to reconsider not jumping into the free agent market if for no other reason than to allow them to accelerate their development plans. --

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