烏克蘭的庫爾斯克入侵是一個冒險之舉，但可能踩準了時機 Business Insider, 2025/1/25 烏克蘭冒險性的舉動，試圖奪取俄羅斯領土，最終可能帶來收益，原因就在於時機掌握得當 。 烏克蘭部隊在八月進入俄羅斯庫爾斯克地區，進行了一場賭博。他們動用了寶貴的人力和武 器裝備，試圖分散俄羅斯資源，建立緩衝區，掌握戰爭的主動權，並且俘獲戰俘，以便在未 來談判中加以交換。這次進軍庫爾斯克是烏克蘭戰爭中的一大震撼之舉，此前戰線已經僵持 了數月之久。 然而，這次突襲的結果喜憂參半。戰爭專家表示，考慮到此舉帶來的士氣提升與戰爭計畫被 打亂，它是一個合理的選擇，但這次行動並未顯著緩解烏克蘭戰線的壓力，烏軍也難以穩住 他們奪下的大部分地區。 儘管有挫折，但此次行動的時機或許能讓其價值浮現。目前，烏克蘭在努力通過談判結束戰 爭的同時，持續控制著俄羅斯領土。 「控制庫爾斯克領土的一方，在任何停火談判中都會佔據優勢地位，」英國前聯合化學、生 物、輻射與核力量指揮官兼國防專家哈米什·德布雷頓-戈登上校對《商業內幕》表示。 新談判的呼聲 金斯學院倫敦分校的衝突解決專家及前英國外交官蒂姆·威拉西-威爾西表示，對烏克蘭來說 ，庫爾斯克行動是「相當有意圖的」，因為他們試圖奪取一些領土，作為談判籌碼。 而特朗普的重新當選已經引發了更多通過談判結束戰爭的呼聲。 特朗普多次表示，他將通過談判結束戰爭。本週，他表示將對俄羅斯施加更多經濟壓力，以 迫使其達成協議。 烏克蘭總統弗洛迪米爾·澤連斯基也表現出更願意進入談判的跡象。 澤連斯基在十一月表示，烏克蘭尚在控制中的部分地區可以納入「北約的保護傘」之下，作 為一項協議的一部分，同時保留烏克蘭的國際公認邊界。他說，烏克蘭隨後可以用外交方式 談判，收復仍由俄羅斯控制的領土。 德布雷頓-戈登表示，澤連斯基的言論再次證明「庫爾斯克絕對是關鍵。」 澤連斯基在十月推出的「勝利計畫」也呼籲繼續推進烏克蘭在庫爾斯克的行動，暗示其價值 。德布雷頓-戈登指出，這顯示澤連斯基可能將庫爾斯克視為「關鍵談判籌碼」。 戰略與國際研究中心的高級顧問馬克·坎西恩告訴《商業內幕》，鑑於特朗普幾乎肯定會推 動談判，「擁有這個談判籌碼是件好事。」此外，他說，談判可能會比卡馬拉·哈里斯總統 任期下的速度更快，這也使烏克蘭更有可能控制住庫爾斯克的一大部分。 「對烏克蘭來說，這可能會發展得相當順利，」他說。 庫爾斯克對俄羅斯而言意義重大，因為這裡曾是二戰中的重要戰役和轉折點。控制庫爾斯克 讓烏克蘭——過去經常處於防守劣勢——擁有一些可在談判中利用的籌碼。 俄羅斯可能希望爭奪庫爾斯克 不過，能否進入談判還沒有定數。俄羅斯總統弗拉迪米爾·普京的發言人上個月表示，俄方 目前「看不到任何談判的基礎。」普京多次表明，他不想減速，不會停下腳步。 戰爭研究所的衝突專家喬治·巴羅斯告訴《商業內幕》，庫爾斯克「肯定能」在談判中發揮 作用，但他認為俄羅斯總統普京可能寧可繼續戰鬥，也不願為庫爾斯克進行談判。 對普京來說，談判自己領土的控制權將是一個「巨大的羞辱」，他說。 目前俄羅斯並未全力以赴進攻庫爾斯克。巴羅斯表示：「在我看來，庫爾斯克並不是他們的 主要目標。」如果情況有所改變，可能會產生重大影響。 俄羅斯的行動能力有限。集中火力於庫爾斯克可能意味著從烏克蘭抽調更多部隊——這正是 烏克蘭所希望的，因為這將減輕其部隊的壓力。這也可能為烏克蘭收復更多自身領土提供機 會。結果如何，目前仍難以預料。 談判可能還要等上一段時間 即使談判開始，也可能不會立即進行，而烏克蘭需要控制足夠大的地區，以便利用庫爾斯克 作為談判籌碼。 烏克蘭已經失去不少之前控制的領土，然而，戰爭專家表示，他們很可能是主動放棄部分地 區，以戰略性地保衛其他重要位置。某些專家仍然對烏克蘭的控制情況持樂觀態度。例如， 德布雷頓-戈登說：「烏克蘭仍然掌控著相當大的一部分。」 同時，烏克蘭本月也在庫爾斯克發起了新的攻勢。政治軍事專家卡斯波魯（Can Kasapo lu ）近期撰文指出，這一行動「可能會為基輔帶來外交槓桿作用」。 但如果烏克蘭要從時機上獲得回報，仍需要保持地盤，直到談判成真——特朗普顧問表示， 這可能需要幾個月的時間。這或許是一項艱鉅的任務，但隨著談判可能性被公開討論，這讓 庫爾斯克的戰略價值更加凸顯。 原文： Ukraine's Kursk invasion was a risky play, but it might have nailed the timing Ukraine's risky gamble to seize Russian territory could ultimately pay off, if f or no other reason than the timing. Ukrainian forces rolled the dice on a gamble and advanced into the Russian regio n of Kursk in August. They opted to use precious manpower and weaponry in a bold play to divert Russian resources, create a buffer zone, seize the momentum, and take land and prisoners that could be exchanged in future negotiations. The mov e into Kursk was a shocking development in the Ukraine war, the front lines of w hich had been static for months. But the results of the surprise incursion have been mixed. While war experts hav e said it was a reasonable call given the morale and momentum wins, as well as t he upsetting of Russia's war plans, the move hasn't significantly relieved press ure on the front lines in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians have struggled to hold a l ot of what they captured. Ukrainian forces rolled the dice on a gamble and advanced into the Russian regio n of Kursk in August. They opted to use precious manpower and weaponry in a bold play to divert Russian resources, create a buffer zone, seize the momentum, and take land and prisoners that could be exchanged in future negotiations. The mov e into Kursk was a shocking development in the Ukraine war, the front lines of w hich had been static for months. But the results of the surprise incursion have been mixed. While war experts hav e said it was a reasonable call given the morale and momentum wins, as well as t he upsetting of Russia's war plans, the move hasn't significantly relieved press ure on the front lines in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians have struggled to hold a l ot of what they captured. Despite the setbacks, the timing of this thing could make it worthwhile. Right n ow, Ukraine is holding Russian territory amid a new push to end the war through negotiations. Whoever holds territory in Kursk "is going to be in the box seat for any ceasefi re negotiations," Col. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a defense expert and a former c ommander for the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear forc es, told Business Insider. New talk of negotiations Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a conflict resolution expert at King's College London and a former British diplomat, said this month that for Ukraine, the Kursk operation was "quite deliberate" because it was "trying to take some territory which could lead to bargaining." And now Trump's re-election has created new talk of efforts to revolve the war t hrough negotiations. Trump has repeatedly said that he would end the war through negotiations. This w eek, he said he would put more economic pressure on Russia to get it to make a d eal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also signaled an increased willingne ss to enter talks. But if it still holds enough of the territory as Trump pushes for negotiations i t could pay off. Ukraine's risky gamble to seize Russian territory could ultimately pay off, if f or no other reason than the timing. Ukrainian forces rolled the dice on a gamble and advanced into the Russian regio n of Kursk in August. They opted to use precious manpower and weaponry in a bold play to divert Russian resources, create a buffer zone, seize the momentum, and take land and prisoners that could be exchanged in future negotiations. The mov e into Kursk was a shocking development in the Ukraine war, the front lines of w hich had been static for months. But the results of the surprise incursion have been mixed. While war experts hav e said it was a reasonable call given the morale and momentum wins, as well as t he upsetting of Russia's war plans, the move hasn't significantly relieved press ure on the front lines in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians have struggled to hold a l ot of what they captured. Despite the setbacks, the timing of this thing could make it worthwhile. Right n ow, Ukraine is holding Russian territory amid a new push to end the war through negotiations. Whoever holds territory in Kursk "is going to be in the box seat for any ceasefi re negotiations," Col. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a defense expert and a former c ommander for the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear forc es, told Business Insider. New talk of negotiations Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a conflict resolution expert at King's College London and a former British diplomat, said this month that for Ukraine, the Kursk operation was "quite deliberate" because it was "trying to take some territory which could lead to bargaining." And now Trump's re-election has created new talk of efforts to revolve the war t hrough negotiations. Trump has repeatedly said that he would end the war through negotiations. This w eek, he said he would put more economic pressure on Russia to get it to make a d eal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also signaled an increased willingne ss to enter talks. Zelenskyy said in November the parts of Ukraine still under its own control coul d be taken "under the NATO umbrella" as part of an agreement that still holds Uk raine's borders as its internationally recognized borders. He said Ukraine could then negotiate the return of its own territory that was still under Russian con trol "in a diplomatic way." De Bretton-Gordon said Zelenskyy's comments reinforce that "Kursk is absolutely key." A "victory plan" Zelenskyy unveiled in October also called for the continuation of Ukraine's work in Kursk, hinting at its value. De Bretton-Gordon said it show s Zelenskyy may be seeing Kursk as "a key bargaining chip." Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Stu dies, told BI that given Trump is "almost certain" to push negotiations, "it's g ood to have this bargaining chip." Plus, he said, negotiations are likely to tak e place sooner than they would have under a Kamala Harris presidency, making it more likely that Ukraine could hold on to a significant chunk of Kursk. "It could work out well" for Ukraine, he said. Kursk holds significance for the Russians, as it was a key battle and turning po int in World War II. Holding Kursk gives Ukraine, which has often been on its ba ck foot, something it can use in negotations. Russia may want to fight over Kursk There's no guarantee it gets to negotiations, though. Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesperson said last month that Russia sees "no grounds for negotiati ons yet." Putin has signaled that he doesn't want to slow down and take his foot off the gas. George Barros, a conflict expert at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI Kursk "certainly can" play a role in negotiations, but he suspects that Russian President Vladimir Putin would rather fight rather than negotiate for Kursk. Negotiating over his own territory would be a "massive humiliation for Putin," h e said. Russia hasn't pushed as hard as it could in Kursk. Barros said "it's quite clear to me that Kursk has not been a primary objective." Were that to change, it cou ld have significant effects. There are limits to what Russia can do. Focusing on Kursk could mean taking more troops out of Ukraine — something Ukraine wants as it takes the pressure off i ts forces. That might open the door for Ukraine to take back more of its own ter ritory. It's hard to know. Negotiations might still be a long way off If there are negotiations, they may not be immediate, and Ukraine will need to b e holding a good-sized chunk to use Kursk as a bargaining chip. Ukraine has lost much of what it held, though warfare experts said it likely gav e some of that up willingly to strategically defend other parts. Some experts ar e still bullish about what Ukraine is holding. De Bretton-Gordon, for instance, said "Ukraine's still holding a significant amount." And Ukraine also executed a new offensive push in Kursk this month. The move was "likely to grant Kyiv diplomatic leverage," Can Kasapo lu, a political-military expert at the Hudson Institute, wrote recently. But for the gamble to pay off for Ukraine in terms of timing, Ukraine still need s to be holding ground if negotiations turn real — something Trump advisors sai d could take months more. That could be a tall order, but with the possibility o f talks being openly discussed, that makes Kursk even more important. 原文連結： https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-kursk-gamble-could-turn-out-well-with-i ts-timing-2025-1 ------ 心得：我相信烏克蘭選擇2024夏攻入庫斯克，一部分是為了分散在頓巴斯敗仗的民怨，也等 到俄國自衛能力弱化足夠，又接近談判時期。整體實際比2023年好太多了。 不過根據Denys davyov,烏克蘭現在是把最好的兵力都集結在庫斯克，因此真的是很大的賭注。 --

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