Three things Keith Hernandez taught me about pitching 三件 Keith Hernandez 教會我有關投球的事 原文連結：http://0rz.tw/3e4ql by John Walsh June 30, 2008 黑色是原文的內文 綠色是原文引用別人的文字 暗藍色是原文的標題 亮藍色是標題的翻譯 白色是內文的翻譯 If you are interested in pitching—really interested, I mean—you simply have to read Pure Baseball by Keith Hernandez (with help from Mike Bryan on grammar and spelling and stuff). And when I say interested in pitching, I don't mean you know who won the last five Cy Young Awards or even who had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the American League last year. Rather, I mean you want to know not only what that last pitch was and how it moved, you want to understand why it was thrown, why it worked or why it didn't. 如果你對投球有興趣的話－－我是指真的很有興趣－－你一定要看一下 Keith Hernandez 所寫的 Pure Baseball（有 Mike Bryan 幫忙作文法及拼字校正等工作）。而當我說的對 投球有興趣，我不是要你知道最近五個賽揚獎得主，也不是要你說出去年美聯誰的 K/BB 比例最好。我指的是你不僅想知道剛剛投手投的那一球是哪一種球、那顆球移動的軌跡， 你還想了解為什麼要配那一種球路、為什麼那球如此有效或如此沒用。 The subtitle of Hernandez's book is "A pitch-by-pitch guide for the advanced fan," and that is a good description. Hernandez goes through two games from the 1993 season, almost (but not quite) at the pitch level. That's not to say that the book is only about pitching—Hernandez holds forth on many questions of baseball tactics here, including base stealing, bunting, hit-and-running, productive outs, defensive alignments and many others. Hernandez 那本書的副標題是「給進階球迷的逐球分析」，而這真是非常恰當的描述。 Hernandez 挑選出 1993 球季的兩場比賽，大多（但並非全部）在講解有關投球的事情。 這並不是表示整本書只談投球－－Hernandez 也聊到了許多有關戰術的問題，包括盜壘、 觸擊、打帶跑、有意義的出局、防守布陣以及很多其他的東西。 But what really fascinates about this book is getting an insider's perspective on pitching and the batter-pitcher confrontation. Hernandez was clearly a "cerebral" ballplayer, a guy who was always thinking, thinking trying to get an edge. There was nothing "see ball, hit ball" about Keith Hernandez. 但這本書真正吸引人的地方是能讓我們了解職業選手對於投球和投打對決的看法。 Hernandez 是一個「用腦」的球員，他總是在思考，思考如何才能取得上風。在 Keith Hernandez 的字典裡是找不到「球來就打」這種辭彙的。 So, what did Keith Hernandez teach me about pitching? Well, as some of you may know, I've been working with the PITCHf/x data, which has allowed us to study pitching at a level of detail that was almost unimaginable not very long ago. So, what I'm most interested in is pitches—what are the different pitch types, what distinguishes one from the other, and how are they used differently? 那麼，Keith Hernandez 到底教會我什麼有關投球的事呢？嗯，有些人應該已經知道，我 在作有關 PITCHf/x 的研究，這讓我們得以對投球作出以前根本無法想像的詳盡分析。而 這些資料讓我最感興趣的是－－到底有哪些不同的球種、它們的差別在哪、它們的用法又 有什麼不同呢？ I've written quite a bit about pitch types already, so I thought I knew quite a bit, but ol' Keith showed me a thing or two (which is so unsurprising, it's not even funny). 我已經寫過不少有關球種的文章，所以我想我應該算還滿了解這方面的東西，不過老 Keith 還是可以舉出一兩樣我不知道的事（這沒什麼好驚訝的，而且這也一點都不好笑） 。 The tailing fastball 有尾勁的速球 One of the first things I learned from studying the PITCHf/x data is that fastballs typically move quite a bit to the side. Nobody much talks about this. Actually, that's not true, the other day I happened to catch Brandon Webb's start against the Mets and one of the broadcasters mentioned Webb's sinker that "moves in on a right-handed hitter." 我從研究 PITCHf/x 中所學到的第一件事就是速球通常都帶有橫向變化。似乎很少人提到 這件事。不過也不盡是如此，有一天我碰巧看到 Brandon Webb 對上大都會，其中一個主 播提到了 Webb 的伸卡球「往右打者的內角鑽進去」。 That's true, Webb's sinker (which is a kind of fastball) moves sideways, towards a right-handed hitter, about nine inches. And Dan Haren's fastball moves in the same direction by six inches. John Maine? Eight inches in on a right-handed batter. Just about all right-handed fastballs move in an a right-handed hitter (and likewise, lefty fastballs move the other way—away from a right-handed batter). 的確如此，Webb 的伸卡球（也算是一種速球）會往右打者的內角橫移 9 英吋。而 Dan Haren 的速球也會往相同的方向移動 6 英吋。至於 John Maine 呢？8 英吋。幾乎所有右 投手的速球都會往右打者的內角鑽（同樣的，左投手的速球會往另一個方向跑－－向右打 者的外角橫移）。 Hernandez, in his book, tells us something important about the typical tailing action of a fastball: It makes it difficult to come inside to the opposite-hand hitter. Actually, Hernandez is discussing Phillies left-hander Danny Jackson, who had quite a bit of tail on his fastball. When Jackson throws to a right-handed batter, the fastball tends to tail away from the hitter. Hernandez 在他的書中提到一些有關這種有尾勁速球的重要觀念：這種橫移讓投手很難將 球塞往對向打者的內角。事實上，Hernandez 談到了費城人的左投 Danny Jackson，他的 速球有不錯的尾勁。當 Jackson 面對右打者時，他的速球大都向打者外側橫移。 That's great for pitching outside, but it makes it hard to pitch on the inside corner, as the ball tends to drift out over the heart of the plate. Here's Keith: 這種橫移的方式對外角球來說是再好不過了，但這也讓投手很難把速球投向內角，因為如 此很容易就讓球跑到紅中。Keith 是這樣說的： After thirteen pitches tonight in Philadelphia, Danny Jackson hasn't come inside one time. One reason is that his fastball tends to run away from these right-handed Braves hitters. If that pitch does not start out three or four inches inside, if instead it starts out over the inside corner, it will run toward the middle of the plate and right onto the barrel of the bat. Danny Jackson 今晚在費城所投的 13 顆速球中，一球都沒有往內角塞。其中一個原因是 他的速球會往勇士右打者的外側跑。如果那顆速球開始的位置不在內角往內三到四英吋， 而是直接對準內角的話，那顆球就會跑到紅中，然後被打者一棒扛出去。 Why doesn't Jackson just compensate the tailing action by throwing the ball way inside and letting it tail back over the inside corner, you ask? That's a good question (I asked it myself), but Keith says it's very difficult to do that, for psychological reasons. More on that below, when I discuss the backup slider. 你應該會問，為什麼 Jackson 不一開始就瞄準打者更內側的地方，這樣球就會轉回內角？ 這是一個很好的問題（我也問了同樣的問題），不過 Keith 說這是很難做到的，而主要是 因為心理因素。我在之後談到開後門的滑球時會更深入談這個問題。 Hernandez goes on to discuss the "straight" fastball that doesn't tail. You'd think less movement means less effectiveness, but Keith sees it differently: Hernandez 接著談到「直」球，完全沒有尾勁的速球。你或許會想尾勁越差的速球應該越 沒用吧，但 Keith 有不同的看法： ... it's dangerous for Jackson to throw his "tailing" fastball inside to right-handed batters, and he hasn't developed the fastball that stays straight. That's no disgrace, however, because Nolan Ryan never developed one either, to use against left-handed batters in conjunction with his own tailing fastball. ...... 要 Jackson 把他「有尾勁」的速球往右打者的內角塞是很危險的一件事，然而他 也沒有練成沒有橫向移動的速球。不過這也沒有什麼好丟臉的，因為 Nolan Ryan 也沒有 去練沒有橫向移動的速球以在面對左打者時搭配他那有尾勁的速球。 Hernandez goes on to describe part of Greg Maddux's repertoire: 接下來，Hernandez 談到 Grag Maddux 的球種： [Maddux] throws a sinking fastball but also another variety straight over the top, a hard, straight bullet, and he knows that if he throws it inside to left-handed batters, the ball will stay inside. [Muddux] 不僅擁有一顆下沉的速球，他還有另一顆沒有橫向移動，快速，筆直的速球，而 且他知道當他把這種球路向左打者內角塞進去時，它會留在內角。 Danny Jackson's solution to this problem was the development of a cut fastball. The main goal of the cutter is to throw a fastball without the regular tailing action. Most cutters tail (only now we say "cut" instead of "tail") a little in the other direction, i.e. in on a right-handed batter (if thrown by a lefty like Jackson). The trick is to keep the velocity of the cutter up near that of the regular fasty. 至於 Danny Jackson 的解決辦法是練卡特球。卡特球的主要目的是要讓速球擁有不同的橫 向移動方式。大部分的卡特球會往另一個方向橫移（在英文中會用「cut」而不是「tail」 ），也就是說，會往右打者的內角鑽進去（如果是由 Jackson 這種左投手來投的話）。而 成功的秘訣就是把卡特球的球速用到跟一般的速球一樣快。 Back-up or back-door? 開哪一種後門？ You probably have heard the term "backdoor slider." Or maybe it was "backup slider"? And maybe it wasn't clear just exactly what these terms meant? Well, Professor Hernandez makes it clear. The backdoor slider (or curveball, the term applies to both pitch types) is a pitch that starts out off the plate, outside, then breaks in over the outside corner (or tries to). From the description, you should be able to tell that this term only applies when a righty pitcher faces a lefty batter and vice versa. 你應該聽過開後門吧。在英文中有兩種不同的說法，「backdoor slider」或者是「backup slider」。或許你並不清楚這兩種說法指的到底是什麼樣子的球路。嗯，就讓 Hernandez 教授來為你解說吧。backdoor slider（或是 curveball，這個說法對兩種球種都適用）是 指投出去的球一開始看起來像是在靠好球帶外側的壞球，但接著卻轉進外角好球帶（或嘗 試著轉進外角好球帶）。由這樣的解釋，你應該可以了解這種球路是右投手面對左打者或 是左投手面對右打者所使用的。 A backup slider (or, again, curve) is similar, except that here the pitch is off the plate, inside, and breaks over the inside corner. Of course, this can only occur for a righty-righty or lefty-lefty matchup. This would seem like a very effective pitch, since the batter would perceive the ball might hit him, causing him to turn away or bail out, while the pitch breaks over the plate. Here's the thing about the backup slider, though: Nobody throws this pitch on purpose, at least according to Mex. backup slider（或者是 curve）跟 backdoor slider 類似，不過這種說法指得是投出去 的球一開始看起來像是在靠好球帶內側的壞球，但接著卻轉進內角好球帶。當然，這只有 在右投手面對右打者或是左投手面對左打者時才會發生。這或許看起來是一種很有效的球 路，因為打者會以為球要打到他，於是就轉身或者乾脆閃開，但此時球卻竄進好球帶。不 過這裡有一點要注意：沒有人會刻意投這種球路，至少 Mex （Keith Hernandez 的外號） 是這麼說的。 Here are Keith's very words on the backup slider: 底下就是 Keith 對 backup slider 所做的講解： The right-handed pitcher facing the right-handed batter wants to throw the breaking ball on the outside corner. Why? If any breaking ball misses the target, it's usually to the left, outside, as the right-handed pitcher sees the plate. Locating the breaking ball inside in this righty-righty matchup is even tougher psychologically because the pitcher has to aim almost behind the batter. So the tendency is even more to miss to the left. And if you aim at the inside corner but miss to the left, where does that leave the pitch? Over the inner half—the heart of the plate. 右投手在面對右打者時，都會想要把大幅度的變化球投在外角。為什麼？因為當大幅度的 變化球失投時，通常都會往左偏，滑向好球帶外側，如果由投手的方向來看的話。心理因 素使得右投手在面對右打者時更難將大幅度的變化球投向內角，因為投手必須要瞄準打者 的身後才能投出這種球路。而這種壓力會使失投球更向左偏。猜猜看，如果你想投到內角 ，但球卻失投往左偏，那麼你的球會跑到哪裡呢？稍稍偏內側－－好球帶的心臟地帶。 Hernandez goes on to recount how Bob Gibson said that the inadvertent backup slider was his best pitch, but he couldn't throw it there intentionally. Hernandez 接著談到 Bos Gibson 曾經說過，不小心投出來的 backup slider 是他最厲害 的球路，不過他沒有辦法刻意投出那種球。 If as great a pitcher as Bob Gibson couldn't throw the backup breaking pitch with any consistency, who can? Nobody. That's why it's never thrown intentionally. When you see it, mark it down as a mistake, even if it froze the batter for a strike. You heard it here first. 如果連像 Bob Gibson 這麼偉大的投手都沒有辦法隨心所欲的投出這種球路的話，誰可以 辦的到呢？沒有人可以。這就是為什麼沒有人會刻意投這種球。當你看到這種球路時，把 它當成是一顆失投球，就算打者站著被三振也是一樣。這是你第一次聽到這種說法吧。 You do see this pitch occasionally, where the batter flinches and the ball drops in for a strike. I happened to see Carlos Marmol throw one the other day and broadcaster Len Kasper praised it as a great pitch. To his credit, Bob Brenly (an ex-player himself, of course) vaguely alluded to the difficulty of locating that pitch consistently. Nobody called it a mistake pitch, though. 有時候你的確會看到打者躲開一顆看似要觸身的球，但接著那顆球卻轉進好球帶。我那天 剛好看到 Carlos Marmol 投了一顆這樣的球，而主播 Len Kasper 讚美那是十分精采的一 球。不過我想稱讚的是 Bob Brenly（當然，他之前也是一位球員）稍微提到那種球路是很 難隨心所欲的投出來。可是，沒有人會把那種球叫做失投球。 Changeups not allowed inside 變速球不准往內角塞 One thing I've learned analyzing pitch data is that changeups are used almost exclusively against opposite-hand batters—lefty pitcher to righty batter and vice versa. There's not really any secret about that, even a casual observer of the game could figure that out if he were paying attention. But something that I did not know, and learned reading this textbook on pitching, was that changeups are invariably thrown towards the outside part of the plate. As usual, Keith does not mince words: 我從分析投球資料中學到，變速球通常只被拿來對付對向打者－－左投手拿來對付右打者 或右投手拿來對付左打者。這倒不是一個秘密，就算是一個普通的觀眾也會發現這件事， 只要他夠專心的話。但是有些事情我以前並不知道，不過我從這本投球教科書裡學到了， 那就是變速球一向都往外角投。跟平常一樣，Keith 很直接的說： The change-up is never thrown purposefully inside. Never. 變速球永遠不會刻意投向內角。永遠不會。 Now, I would have thought just the opposite. Here's my reasoning: the batter will tend to be "out in front" of the changeup. If the pitch is inside, he can only pull the ball foul. But if the pitch is on the outside of the plate, the early swing and the outside location of the pitch will tend to compensate and the result will be a ball hit fair. Not so, says Keith: 不過，如果沒看這本教科書的話，我可能會以為變速球永遠只投向內角。底下是我的想法 ：打者在面對變速球的時候通常會「出棒過早」。如果球投向內角的話，他頂多能把球撈 到界外而已。但是，假如球投向外角，出棒時機跟球的位置兩個因素反而正好互相抵銷， 然後結果就是一個界內球。不過 Keith 說，不是這樣的： If the change does what it's designed to do and gets the hitter off stride, about all he can do with the pitch over the outside part of the plate is to hit it weakly toward the end of the bat. But even if he is off stride he can still get the head of the bat on the inside change-up and pull it with power, sometimes with one arm. The pitcher who throws an inside change-up runs a major risk that he will soon be, in the immortal words of George Hendrick, "rubbing up a new one". 如果變速球有達到它的效果，而打者的出棒節奏被擾亂，他能對外角球做的事就只有用棒 頭去碰球。但是就算打者的出棒節奏被擾亂，他仍然可以用球棒前段去強力拉擊在內角的 變速球，有時候甚至只用一隻手。而把變速球投向內角的投手將會像 George Hendrick 的 經典名言所描述的，「向裁判要一顆新球來搓吧」。 Hernandez sounds pretty confident in his proclamations, but it should be noted that not everyone necessarily agrees with this changeup-only-outside policy. Ex-major league pitcher and current Oakland A's pitching coach Curt Young, in an interview with Baseball Prospectus, was asked what he'd do different if he were pitching today. The left-hander replied: Hernandez 聽起來對他的言論十分有自信，不過我還是要提一下，不是所有人都同意變速 球一定要投向外角。前大聯盟投手、現任奧克蘭運動家投手教練 Curt Young 在受 Baseball Prospectus 訪問時被問到，如果他現在還在投球的話，他會做什麼改變。這位 左投手回答： ... Also, using changeups in different locations. Guys have been possessed, including myself, to throw changeups away to righties, but change-ups in to righties can be effective, too. ...... 同時，將變速球投到不同的位置。大家，包括我自己，都一直認為面對右打者時變 速球要投到外角，但是投向右打者內角的變速球也一樣會很有效。 Amaze your friends! 嚇嚇你的朋友！ Armed with this knowledge about changeups, accidental backup breaking balls and tailing fastballs, you are now in a position to amaze your friends with your baseball knowledge. Keith spells it out: 了解了變速球，偶爾出現一次開後門的大幅度變化球，以及有尾勁的速球，你可以用這些 棒球知識來嚇嚇你的朋友。Keith 是這麼說的： Given this [information], you are now in a position to amaze your friends by calling the pitch selection in this one situation, based only on the catcher's setup behind the plate. Here's the rule: When the catcher sets up over the inside corner in a righty-righty or lefty-lefty matchup, gasoline is on its way—cheese, cheddar, the fastball—because the catcher is not going to request either the change-up or the breaking pitch on the inside corner. You can bet the mortgage on that. 有了這些［資訊］，你可以藉由捕手的位置來猜出配球，同時也可以嚇嚇你的朋友。底下 就是如何猜出配球的規則：當捕手在右投手面對右打者或左投手面對左打者時蹲到打者內 側，速球就要來了（譯按：內文中的 cheese 及 cheddar 是英文中對速球另外的說法）， 因為捕手是不會配內角變速球或者是大幅度變化球的。你可以放心的把全身家當賭上去。 Try this out on your friends (or better yet, your enemies). You can probably win a few beers using Keith's rule of the inside target. 你可以在你朋友身上試試這招（或者在你的敵人身上試試）。你或許可以用 Keith 的內角 規則贏到一些啤酒。 A skeptical comment 伴隨著懷疑的評論 You know, it seems to me that some pitchers really do try to locate their slider inside to some same-hand batters. Daisuke Matsuzaka comes to mind as an example. But maybe Keith is right, maybe those inside sliders are mistake pitches. But, every single one? And perhaps somebody out there is working changeups inside occasionally, who knows, maybe one of the Oakland pitchers working under Curt Young? I think the PITCHf/x data might be able to verify (or refute) some of these claims by Keith Hernandez. I haven't looked at the data yet, so I don't know what I'll find, but I'm guessing that Keith is, for the most part, on target. Stay tuned for more. 你知道的，我覺得有些投手真的會在面對某些同向打者時，將滑球投向內角。Daisuke Matsuzaka 就是一個例子。但是 Keith 可能是對的，或許那些內角滑球的確是失投。不過 ，每一顆都是嗎？而且或許有些投手偶爾會把變速球投向內角，誰曉得呢，也許奧克蘭的 投手中有人在 Curt Young 的指導下這麼做。我認為 PITCHf/x 應該可以證明（或反駁） 某些 Keith Hernandez 的論點。我還沒有開始研究相關的資料，所以我也不知道結果會怎 樣，但是我猜 Keith 所說的應該大部分都是對的。繼續閱讀 THT 的文章，我們會提供更 多的資訊。 --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 98.222.63.117