http://tinyurl.com/3skrek By Marc Hulet There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. Previously, I looked at the drafts from 2000 to 2002. I’m not sure exactly what to make of the first 10 picks of the 2003 draft, to be honest. Delmon Young is loaded with potential but his lack of plate discipline is really holding him back. Rickie Weeks, quite frankly, has been a disappointment. Nick Markakis is possibly the best pick from the Top 10, and he’s an All-Star, but not a superstar. There were still a lot of misses: Kyle Sleeth, Tim Stauffer, Ryan Harvey, and possibly Chris Lubanski. The first 10 picks broke down like this: 1. Tampa Bay Delmon Young, OF California high school 2. Milwaukee Rickie Weeks, 2B Southern University 3. Detroit Kyle Sleeth, RHP Wake Forest University 4. San Diego Tim Stauffer, RHP University of Richmond 5. Kansas City Chris Lubanski, OF Pennsylvania high school 6. Chicago (NL) Ryan Harvey, OF Florida high school 7. Baltimore Nick Markakis, OF Georgia high school 8. Pittsburgh Paul Maholm, LHP Mississippi State University 9. Texas John Danks, LHP Texas high school 10. Colorado Ian Stewart, 3B California high school The first 10 picks don’t look too bad, but we still only have two potential All-Stars (Young and Markakis), maybe three if Weeks suddenly figures things out, and two solid, but unspectacular, major leaguers in Maholm and Danks. You still have four or five players that may never receive more than a cup of coffee in the majors. But how was the remainder of the first round? Well the Jays finally made a nice first round pick under J.P. Ricciardi and nabbed Aaron Hill, perhaps one of the top three second basemen in the American League. The Mets got Lastings Milledge (now with Washington), for good or bad. Arizona received Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin (now with the White Sox), Montreal drafted closer Chad Cordero, St. Louis found Daric Barton (now with Oakland) and the Dodgers stole Chad Billingsley with the 24th pick. The supplemental first round saw Cleveland take the oft-injured Adam Miller, Boston took the under-appreciated Matt Murton and Seattle found Adam Jones, who helped them secure the services of Erik Bedard. Let’s take another look at the Top 10: 球迷們總是認為首輪選秀閉著眼睛都能選到大物。我會在這一系列的文章回顧2000到2004 年的前十順位選秀。這篇是2003年。至於2000-2002年的回顧已經寫好了。 我不太確定2003年的最佳選秀球員是誰。Delmon Young充滿天份但選球太糟。Rickie Weeks目前的表現有些讓人失望。Nick Markakis可能是這年的最佳選秀，但他只會是全明 星而不是超級巨星。剩下的則是一些假貨：Kyle Sleeth、Tim Stauffer、Ryan Harvey、 Chris Lubanski。 前十順位選的不算糟，但真正有全明星潛力的只有兩位(Young、Markakis)，如果Weeks打 出來的話可以算三位。兩個不突出但會有不錯成績的：Maholm、Danks。還剩下五位大概是 只能來打中職的。 至於其他的首輪呢？藍鳥隊的Aaron Hill，可能是美聯三位最佳的二壘手之一。大都會的 Lastings Milledge ，目前前途未卜。響尾蛇的Conor Jackson和Carlos Quentin。博覽會 的Chad Cordero。紅雀的Daric Barton 。道奇的Chad Billingsley。 三明治選秀：印地安人拿到了容易受傷的Adam Miller。紅襪獲得被低估的Matt Murton。 水手隊挑到Adam Jones，後來被拿去換Erik Bedard。 現在就來看看前十順位選秀吧： Delmon Young The Rays had the enviable task of picking the No. 1 player in the draft in 2003 , and if the last five years have shown us anything, they made a pretty good decision as Young has out-performed everyone else in the Top 10 not named Markakis. Baseball America spoke with the Rays organization after it took Young first overall: “We thought he was one of the best players long before the draft,” Devil Rays general manager Chuck LaMar said. “But we’re in a critical situation, having the No. 1 pick in the country and not winning as many games as we hoped. We made sure we asked all the questions to make sure we got the best player in the country. He was awfully high on our list for a while. We went through everything to see if anyone could unseat Delmon, and the answer was no.” “He is one of the finest power hitters our scouts have evaluated, not only this year but over the years,” Devil Rays scouting director Cam Bonifay said. “He’s the kind of guy that you don’t get out of your seat and go buy a hot dog when you know he’s coming to the plate. You want to stay there and watch him hit. He lights up your eyes.” The Rays also used Young to secure what the organization needed most – pitching talent. He was dispatched to Minnesota this past off-season for right -hander Matt Garza, and infielder Jason Bartlett, who adds stability to the infield. It is not set in stone that Young is going to become a superstar, but the tools are evident. He simply needs time to mature as a hitter and learn the value of patience and waiting for “his pitch.” It’s easy to forget that Young is still only 22 years old. Last season he batted “only” .288/.316/.419 but he drove in 93 batters in a year that he turned 21. He likely has a very bright future. 2003年的第一順位對陽光隊來說是個甜蜜的煩惱。接下來的五年證明了他們做了相當好的 決定：Young勝過的前十順位中除了Markakis之外的每一人。 在陽光隊選了Young之後，Baseball America和陽光隊的管理階層有段訪問： 　　"我們認為他是選秀會中的最佳球員"陽光隊GM Chuck LaMar這麼說"我們要確定我們選 　　到了最佳的球員，而Delmon在每個地方都勝過其他競爭對手" 　　"他在這幾年來都是球探們認為長打能力最好的傢伙"球探長Cam Bonifay說"他就是那 種能吸引住全場目光的天生打者" 陽光隊後來用Young換來球隊最需要的 - 投手Matt Garza和內野手Jason Bartlett。 Young會不會成為巨星現在還未可知，但他有那個天份。他現在需要的是成長的時間並且學 會選球。大家很容易忽略他現在才22歲。上季他"只"打出.288/.316/.419但有93分打點。 看來他的前途一片光明。 Rickie Weeks Weeks was on a lot of teams’ draft boards as the No. 1 player in the nation, narrowly edging Young. In its scouting profile for Weeks before the draft, Baseball America stated: Weeks has the best tools and is the purest hitter in college baseball. His hands are so quick that he generates amazing bat speed and can turn around any inside fastball. Those quick wrists are still there but injuries to that very area slowed Weeks early in his pro career. Seemingly healthy now, though, Weeks has yet to turn his potential into reality. Weeks arrived in the majors in 2003, less than half a season after being drafted. However, he remained in the minors (Double-A) for all of 2004. He resurfaced halfway through the 2005 season but batted only .239/.333/.394, a far cry from his .400 college averages. Although he missed time with injuries in 2006, Weeks spent the entire season as Milwaukee’s second baseman and hit a respectable .279/.363/.404, but you expect more from the second overall pick. Weeks showed more patience at the plate in 2007 (.374 OBP), as well as more power (.433 SLG), but he continued to have issues with his batting average (.235 AVG). After playing in the majors for parts of four seasons, Weeks entered 2008 with a batting average a hair under .250. He’ll be playing this season at the age of 25 so there is still time for him to improve, but it’s probably safe to say the Brewers expected a lot more a lot sooner from the second overall pick. Weeks是許多隊心目中的狀元郎。Baseball America在選秀前對Weeks的一段描述： 　　Weeks有大學生中最佳的天份並且是最好的打者。他有不可思議的揮棒速度，能輕鬆攻 　　擊內角速球 他的手腕還是很好，但卻不斷受傷。即使現在看來是健康了，Weeks也還沒把天份轉為成績 。在選秀當年Weeks就直升大聯盟，然而，隔年他又回到2A。2005年回到大聯盟但只打出 .239/.333/.394，和大學時期的四割男相差甚遠。2006年打出.279/.363/.404，不錯的成 績，但對榜眼來說還有點太少。2007年Weeks的選球和長打又更好了，但打擊率還是問題。 今年Weeks的打擊率依舊低於.250。他現在還有進步的空間，但可以說他現在的表現和當初 釀酒人期待的相差甚遠。 Kyle Sleeth If you read Baseball America’s pre-draft profile on Sleeth, there were warning signs: “Sleeth's pitching has dropped off slightly since his NCAA record-tying 26-game winning streak ended, but he still has a long track record of success with Wake Forest and Team USA. Not to mention three nasty pitches, a 93-94 mph fastball with life, a low-80s slider that has improved this year and a power curveball… His delivery can get out of whack, and he'll sometimes throw across his body or leave the ball up in the strike zone. Consistency is all that stands between him becoming a frontline starter in the major leagues." Well, Sleeth never found that consistency and he retired this spring. To be fair, he was beset by injuries from almost the moment he signed his pro contract with Detroit. He began his career in High-A ball in 2004 and pitched well: a 3.31 ERA, 7.94 H/9, 2.38 BB/9 and 8.60 K/9. Sleeth was promoted to Double-A Erie midway through the season and struggled mightily. He posted an ERA of 6.30 with 10.46 H/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 6.41 K/9. He then missed all of 2005 after Tommy John surgery. The surgery is a lot more successful than it used to be, but it’s not perfect and Sleeth was one of those players that never recovered his velocity. While rehabbing in 2006, he pitched OK in the Gulf Coast League but struggled when he was promoted to High-A ball. He walked 21 batters in 19.2 innings and posted an ERA of 11.90. The next year was more of the same as he walked 40 in 77.2 innings between A-ball and Double-A. His ERA was well over 8.00. After a tough spring in 2008, Sleeth hung up his spikes. Kyle Sleeth的失敗似乎是早有預兆。Baseball America的球探報告說： 　　"在26連勝結束後，Sleeth的投球似乎是有些退步，但他在大學和國家隊曾有過一連串 　　的成功。上好的速球、滑球和曲球...他的投球機制不太穩定並且有時候球會壓不下來 　　。穩定性是他現在最大的問題" 嗯，Sleeth從來沒有穩定過並且在今年退休了。自從他簽約的那一刻起就為傷痛所困。 2004年他在A+起步順利，但升上2A後有些掙扎。隔年他就動了Tommy John手術。 Sleeth是那些手術後球速就不見的球員之一。手術後他在A+和2A都投不好。今年春天， Sleeth終於決定高掛球鞋。 Tim Stauffer Stauffer was another talented lefty whose career was derailed by injuries. Interestingly, though, he was injured in college. After the Padres selected him fourth overall, he came clean and told them about the injury before he signed his contract. As a result, San Diego signed him to a well-below market value deal. He tried to avoid shoulder surgery, but Stauffer’s stuff never rebounded to what it was in college. He made it to Triple-A in his first pro season, and has pitched in the majors in three separate seasons, but his stuff continues to dwindle. He may have been better off having surgery, missing a year, and hoping for the best. As it stands now, he looks like a Four-A player or major league mop-up reliever. Stauffer是另一位傷兵。特別的是，他是在大學時就受了傷。他很誠實的跟教士隊說了這 件事，因此簽約金遠低於市價。他試圖避免肩膀手術，但他的stuff一直沒有回來。他斷斷 續續的在大聯盟待了三季，而他的stuff持續下滑。也許當初動手術對他是比較好的選擇。 現在他看來是4A球員或是大聯盟球隊的敗戰處理投手。 Chris Lubanski It was always a little perplexing that the pitching-starved Royals kept drafting raw, toolsy position players with high draft picks. If any team could have benefited from drafting “safe” college pitchers, it would have been that franchise in the early- to mid-2000s. Lubanski was a bit of a surprise pick so early in the draft (although he was ranked by BA as the ninth best player available) but the Royals have been known for taking risks; sometimes it worked (Billy Butler), other times it didn’t (Colt Griffin, Lubanski). To be fair, though, Lubanski is not a lost cause. He’s still only 23, he’s a left-handed batter and he has Triple-A experience. But he was also left unprotected in December’s Rule 5 draft and no one took the risk of drafting him. The 2005 season, in which Lubanski hit .301/.349/.554 (with 28 homers), may have been the worst thing to happen to him in his career, as it set unfair expectations. That season was spent in High Desert, one of the top hitting parks in all of baseball. The problem is that Lubanski probably isn’t a 25-homer guy, nor is he a 20 stolen base guy. That makes him a tweener, and a fourth outfielder at the major league level. 皇家隊向來喜歡用前段順位選進完成度較低的野手，期使他們缺的是投手。如果要說哪一 隊可以從"安全"的大學投手上獲利，那一定就是皇家隊了。Lubanski比預期中的還要早一 些選進，而皇家隊也很清楚風險：有些成功(Billy Butler)，有些失敗(Colt Griffin, Lubanski)。憑良心講，Lubanski還不算失敗，他是23歲的左打並且有3A經驗，但在規則五 選秀中卻乏人問津。2005年的成績.301/.349/.554讓他受到過高的期待，而這成績是在最 偏打者的球場打出來的。Lubanski不會有25轟也不會有25盜，這讓他成為一位四號外野手 。 Ryan Harvey Harvey may have had the most raw power of any player in the 2003 draft. But he may also be the most frustrating. He started his career with two years in short season ball and posted OK, but not great, numbers. He then spent three years in A-ball… never a good sign for any prospect, let alone a top pick. In 2005 at Peoria, Harvey batted .257/.302/.484 and hit 24 homers in 467 at-bats. The Midwest League is not an easy place to hit homers, so the number is impressive. The 24 walks and 137 strikeouts, though, was not good. Regardless, he moved up a small step the next season to High-A ball in Daytona and slammed 20 homers in 475 at-bats but hit .248/.290/.432. Injuries took a chunk out of Harvey’s 2007 season and he repeated High-A ball with poor results as he hit .252/.298/.456 with 11 homers in 224 at-bats. He walked only seven times while striking out 53 times. Entering into 2008, Harvey is still only 23 but he was thrown to the wolves in Double-A despite not really earning the opportunity to move up the ladder. So far the results have not been pretty and he is hitting .216/.268/.395 through 17 games. Harvey可能有選秀會中最佳的砲瓦，但也大概是最讓人失望的一位。他在短期A打了兩年， 然後在1A打了三年...這不是什麼好事。2005年打出.257/.302/.484加上24轟，但 24BB/137K就不怎樣了。隔年在A+打出.248/.290/.432加上20轟，2007年因傷繼續在A+打滾 。Harvey今年也才23歲但卻被丟到2A去被摧殘。目前為止在17場中打出.216/.268/.395。 Nick Markakis The majority of baseball teams that had their eyes on Markakis saw his left arm as being more valuable than his bat, as a two-way player. In fact, in the pre-draft rankings, Baseball America had him listed as a pitcher: He pitched at 92-94 mph for most of the season, though he sat at 88-90 in May. His slurvy breaking ball is a plus pitch and he has improved his changeup. There's some effort to his delivery, but he has a quick arm and few lefties can match his stuff. He's the second-best draft-and-follow on the market, trailing only Chipola (Fla.) JC's Adam Loewen, and like Loewen he could be an early pick if he were just a power-hitting right fielder. Chalk one up to Baltimore for making a very wise decision and going against the consensus. Markakis has been a revelation for an organization desperate for some star power. Not only did Markakis succeed as a hitter, he made the switch effortlessly and spent only three seasons in the minors before making his MLB debut. He also did not bat under .283 or have an on-base average under .371 in his career and continues to show improvement every year. Last year, at the age of 23, Markakis slugged 23 homers and drove in 112 runs. 大多數的球隊認為Markakis的投球比打擊更有價值。事實上Baseball America在球探報告 中將Markakis當作投手： 　　他的速球可以投到92-94mph，滑曲球已經相當好而變速球也在進步之中。投球動作有 　　些缺點，但他的快手使他擁有屬一屬二的stuff。他是市場中第二好的draft-and- 　　follow，僅次於Adam Loewen，並且也可能會以強打右外野手的身分被選。 金鶯隊做了一個明智的抉擇。Markakis成了金鶯隊渴望已久的明星打者。他只花了三年就 上到大聯盟，生涯打擊率超過.283上壘率超過.371而且每一年都在進步。去年他以23歲之 齡打了23發全壘打112分打點。（題外話，Markakis在2004雅典奧運時有對我們中華隊投過 球喔） Paul Maholm Maholm was a safe college pick – a left-handed starter that didn’t throw hard but was polished and knew how to pitch. He entered pro ball and, for good or bad, nothing has changed. By the end of his second full pro season, Maholm was pitching for Pittsburgh and he posted an ERA of 2.18 in six starts. He struggled in his first full pro season, mainly due to a lack of control by allowing 4.14 BB/9. Maholm rectified that in 2007 as that number dropped to 2.48 BB/9, although his ERA rose from 4.76 to 5.02. Hits have been a problem in the last two years as he has averaged exactly 10.33 each season. At the age of 26, Maholm is what he is: a dependable, back-of-the-rotation starter. 安全的大學左投；球速不快但完成度很高。大聯盟生涯的前六場ERA 2.18，隔年是生涯第 一個完整球季，因為控球不佳投的有些掙扎。2007年控球改善但ERA升到5.02。被安打過多 一直是他的問題。已經26歲的他會是可靠的、後段輪值的先發。 John Danks Danks was considered the top prep southpaw at the time of the draft, after passing Andrew Miller as the year wore on. He was hitting 93-94 mph fairly regularly and teams saw him as a potential No. 2 starter. Fast forward to 2008 and Danks looks more like a reliable No. 4 starter, maybe a No. 3 if he can cut down on those hits and walks. In 2007, for the White Sox, he allowed 10.33 H/9 and 3.50 BB/9. He throws more in the 90-92 mph range, albeit with a nice curveball. He has looked much more comfortable in 2008 and has a 3.04 ERA through four starts with much better numbers all around. Danks被認為是當年選秀會上頂尖的南面爪。速球可以維持在93-94mph並被認為有二號先發 的資質。現在看來他會是四號先發，如果可以降低保送和安打的話也許會是三號。去年在 白襪投出10.33 H/9　3.50 BB/9的成績，速球在90-92mph之間，有個不差的曲球。2008年 看來又進步了些，四場先發中投出3.04 ERA。 Ian Stewart It’s funny how quickly we forget what big things were expected from some players, as we can see by this excerpt from Baseball America’s pre-draft scouting report on Stewart: [Stewart] has exceptional bat speed and more power even than Delmon Young, according to some scouts. Though his swing is flat and lacks tilt, he projects 35-40 homers a year in the big leagues… Stewart's bat compares favorably to two former Trojan left-handed-hitting third base recruits: the A's Eric Chavez and the Padres' Sean Burroughs, both former first-rounders. Stewart’s numbers looked good in the first two seasons of his pro career, but those numbers were inflated by playing in some very good hitter’s parks. He has never come close to duplicating the 30 homers and 101 RBI he produced in Asheville in 2004. In the last three seasons, he has hit 17, 10 and 15 homers. There also aren’t a lot of scouts that think he can stick at third base on an everyday basis and he lacks the power to be a top option at first base. There was even some talk of moving him to second base, but he lacks the athleticism to succeed at that position. Stewart could end up as a corner utility player or a starter at first base on a lesser MLB team. 一件有趣的事是我們很快的忘記曾經對某些球員的高度期待。我們可以來看看Baseball America對Stewart的球探報告： 　　他有很好的揮棒速度，而砲瓦甚至比Delmon Young更好。揮棒動作有點過大，但有 35-40全壘打的潛力。他的對照組是Eric Chavez和Sean Burroughs。 Stewart前兩季的數字不錯，但那是被球場因素灌水過的。他再也沒有複製過他在 Asheville時的成績。最近三季他的全壘打數分別是17，10，15。球探們也不認為他有守三 壘的能力，而他也沒有一壘手應有的砲瓦。有人想把他移防二壘，但他的運動能力還是不 夠。Stewart最終應該會是角落工具人或是在某些球隊擔任先發一壘手。 --

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