出處：http://0rz.tw/4d32h By MURRAY CHASS Published: September 2, 2007 Fewer Innings Does Not Have to Mean Fewer Victories 更少的局數不見得意味著更少的勝場數 Wednesday was a critical day for an assortment of pitchers. Some won their starts that night, giving them 14 victories and keeping them in the running to become 20-game winners. Others did not win, keeping them stuck at 14 victories and needing to win all six of their remaining starts to become 20-game winners. 星期三對眾家投手來說是重要的一天，有些人贏球，拿到第14勝，繼續向單季20勝挑戰， 有些人停在14勝，得在剩下的六次先發裡都拿到勝投，才能達到單季20勝。 With four weeks left in the season, that seemingly vanishing breed known as the 20-game winner is in the spotlight because last year, for the first time in a full season (that description excludes three strike-affected seasons), the major leagues did not have a single 20-game winner. 去年是史上完整球季（有三年因為罷工沒有打完完整球季）的第一次，沒有任何投手拿到 20勝，因此在球季只剩下四個星期的現在，大家都在關注那些愈來愈稀少的，可能的20勝 投手。 Finishing a second successive season without a 20-game winner would send officials and others into full flight figuring out whether the 20-game winner is an endangered species. 如果連續兩年都沒有人拿到20勝，那大聯盟官員和我們其他人都會開始思考，為什麼20勝 投手變成稀有動物了？ If the trends in pitching practices continue along the line that has developed in recent years, starters could wind up with fewer decisions and therefore fewer wins. Those trends include pitch counts, an increase in the number of pitches starters need to get through their early innings, therefore limiting their ability to stay in games long enough to win them; and the increasing use, by managerial choice and necessity, of relievers who in many instances are not effective enough to hold leads for starters. 如果近年來球賽中使用投手的趨勢繼續發展下去，先發投手和勝負相關的機會將愈來愈 少，因此勝場數也將減少。這些趨勢包括了先發投手在球賽的頭幾局中，使用的球數增 加，降低了他們繼續向下投的機會；加上教練團傾向更常使用救援投手，當然有時候是 被迫的，而我們常常看到救援投手把勝投的機會給搞砸了。 Those are the reasons popularly cited by baseball people and baseball aficionados for significant changes in pitching, but they are not necessarily valid where statistics are concerned. 棒球相關人士或球迷常常拿上面提到的理由來解釋近年來投手角色的變化，不過從統計的 角度來看就不一定是這樣了。 When Tom Glavine gained the 300th victory of his career recently, it was widely speculated that he could be the last 300-game winner because pitchers these days have fewer chances to win games. But the Elias Sports Bureau found that not to be so. The percentage of wins by starters, Elias determined, has not changed appreciably, if at all, in the last 25 years. 當謙虛的葛叔叔拿到生涯第300勝時，很多人都認為他可能是最後一位300勝投手，因為 現在的投手拿勝投的機會比以前更少了。不過根據 Elias Sports Bureau 的數據顯示， 事實可能不是這樣，因為先發投手拿到勝投的機率在這25年來其實並沒有太大的改變。 This season, starters have gained 70 percent of the victories. Five years ago and 10 years ago, starters had 70 percent of the victories. Continuing in five-year increments, it was 69 percent in 1992 and 1987. In 1982, it was 70 percent. 今年球季，先發投手拿到70%的勝投，五年前，十年前，這個數字都一樣。如果以每五 年的累計來看，累計至1992和1987年球季的數字是69%，而累計到1982年球季則是70%。 In other words, pitchers today may be throwing fewer pitches and lasting fewer innings than their predecessors, but they are still receiving credit for the same share of victories. 換句話說，現在的先發投手也許投的局數更短，球數更少，但是和以前的先發投手比起 來，他們拿到勝投的機會是一樣的。 The question, then, is why are pitchers suddenly unable to win 20 games? Last season, Johan Santana and Chien-Ming Wang led the majors with 19 victories each. Six pitchers led the National League with 16, the lowest league-leading total ever. 所以啦，到底為什麼眾先發投手們突然拿不到單季20勝了？去年球季，大聯盟的領先者是 雙城山大王和北佬小王，各19勝，而國聯則是史上最慘的六位投手各16勝。 Santana seemed certain to win 20 after gaining his 18th win Sept. 10. He had a possible four starts left, but after he won only one of the first three, Manager Ron Gardenhire saved him for the playoff opener rather than have him pitch on the final day of the season. 去年的九月十日山大王拿到第18勝，剩下四次先發，看起來很有希望拿下單季20勝，不過 接下來的三次先發他只贏了一場，所以總教練 Ron Gardenhire 讓他休息好準備季後賽第 一場先發，所以球季的最後一天山大王並沒有出場投球。 Yesterday began with 21 pitchers at 14, 15 or 16 victories, and the calendar allowing another six starts for each. 從昨天起算，球季賽只剩下六次先發機會了，而總共有21位投手的勝場數在14-16場。 Four of the pitchers had 16 victories: Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett (Red Sox), John Lackey (Angels) and Wang (Yankees). Four had 15: Tim Hudson (Braves), Jake Peavy (Padres), Kelvim Escobar (Angels) and C. C. Sabathia (Indians). 16勝的有四位，赤襪的老蝴蝶和北極，天使的雷基和北佬的小王。15勝的也有四位，斧頭 幫的哈德森，教士的皮維，天使的交友男和笑臉人的CC。 Thirteen pitchers had 14 wins. Jeff Francis (Rockies), Roy Oswalt (Astros) and Aaron Harang (Reds) joined that group Wednesday, which they needed to do to stay mathematically alive for 20. Santana (Twins), Roy Halladay (Blue Jays), Noah Lowry (Giants), Brad Penny (Dodgers) and Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) did not win that day, meaning they will have to win the rest of their starts to become 20-game winners. 接下來是14勝，共13位，分別是洛磯的法蘭西斯，太空人的奧斯渥，紅人的哈倫，這三位 在星期三拿到14勝，剛好是想要拿到單季20勝的最低門檻，再來是雙城山大王，藍鳥哈樂 戴，巨人洛伊，躲人佩尼，和小熊冉伯牛，這幾位得要在剩下的先發機會全贏才能拿到20 勝。 First-Inning Blues 第一局憂鬱症 On consecutive nights last week, two starting pitchers, Ervin Santana (Angels) and Andrew Miller (Tigers), failed to get out of the first inning. They brought to 19, Elias said, the number of starting pitchers who had failed to complete one inning this season. 上個星期連著兩個晚上，天使山小王和大貓的米勒分別都投不完第一局，今年球季到目前 為止，總共有19位先發投手有同樣悲慘的遭遇。 Santana recorded one out and Miller two, but last night at Florida, J. D. Durbin (Phillies) topped them. He became the sixth starter this season who did not record an out. 山小王拿到一個出局數，米勒兩個，不過昨天晚上有個傢伙更厲害，費城人德賓連一個出 局數都沒拿到就下場了，他是今年的第六個這樣搞笑的先發投手。 Durbin faced seven Marlins batters, and all seven scored after five got hits, one walked and one was hit with a pitch. Durbin, a 25-year-old right-hander, departed after throwing only 19 pitches. 德賓面對馬大魚七位打者，全部回來得分，被打出五支安打，投出一個保送和一個觸身 球，芳齡25的德賓僅僅丟了19個球就下台一鞠躬。 Two of the other five no-out starters, Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner, both of the Yankees, were knocked out of their starts by batted balls. Karstens (six pitches) sustained a broken leg, Rasner (nine pitches) a broken finger. 另外五個沒有拿到出局數就下場的傢伙，其中有兩個其實很倒楣，都是北佬，卡爾斯坦和 雷斯納，都是被球打到下場的，卡爾斯坦丟了六球斷腿，雷斯納丟了九球斷手指。 Kyle Davies (then with the Braves) faced five batters, throwing 22 pitches; Nate Robertson (Tigers) lasted six batters (30 pitches); and Kirk Saarloos (Reds) left after seven batters (38 pitches). 剩下三位，分別是前斧頭幫戴維斯面對五位打者丟22球，大貓羅伯森六位打者30球，紅人 薩爾路斯七位打者38球。 Great Hit, Great Field 好打者，好守備 Plácido Polanco stroked three hits in each of Detroit’s first two games and hasn’t stopped hitting. But then, Polanco never stops hitting. 大貓的波蘭哥在前兩場比賽各擊出三支安打，而且一打就停不下來。 A good hitter who is also a good fielder, Polanco was batting .340, fourth best in the major leagues, through Friday. Entering the weekend, he was the toughest batter to strike out, doing so once every 21.9 plate appearances. 到星期五為止，波蘭哥的打擊率是0.340，大聯盟排名第四，至本週為止他是最難被三振的 打者，每21.9次上場打擊才會被三振一次。喔對了，還有他的守備也是金手套級的。 Even more impressive numbers were 155 (games) and 766 (fielding chances). That ’s how long Polanco, a second baseman, had played without committing an error, both major league records, through Friday. He made his last error July 1, 2006. 虎爛的來了，至星期五為止，鎮守二壘的波蘭哥已經出賽155場，面對766次守備 機會而沒有失誤，史上第一。他上一次失誤已經是去年的七月一日。 “His range is solid, not spectacular,” said David Dombrowski, the Tigers’ general manager. “He catches everything he gets to, he turns double plays well and he goes back on pop-ups well.” 『他的守備範圍很穩定，並不是嚇死人的大，只要他接得到他都穩穩的接，穩穩地完成 雙殺，穩穩地後退接小飛球。』大貓的經理咚布洛斯基說。 But Polanco’s flawless fielding is almost taken for granted; it’s his hitting that commands attention. 不過大家都覺得波蘭哥的守備好是理所當然，他的打擊好才是稀奇。 “He is just a good hitter,” Dombrowski said. “He has a nice short stroke, makes contact, puts the ball in play. He takes what the pitcher gives him and uses the whole field. He’s not a guy who tries to do more than he’s capable of doing. He’s not a home run hitter; he doesn’t try to be a home run hitter. But he does hit the ball out of the park sometimes. He knows his limitations and handles them well.” 咚布洛斯基說：『他真是個好打者，他的揮棒動作小，常擊中球心，把球打進場中。投手 丟什麼他就打什麼，可以把球打到球場的任何地方，他不是那種會強求的打者，他不是個 全壘打高手，他也不強求打全壘打，不過有時候還是會打出球場啦，他知道自己的極限在 哪裡並且適應得很好。』 The Tigers acquired Polanco from the Phillies in June 2005 for reliever Ugueth Urbina. 大貓在2005年六月用後援投手爾畢納從費城換來波蘭哥。 “We wanted to upgrade ourselves at second base; the Phillies were interested in Urbina,” Dombrowski said. “We had depth in the bullpen; they had Utley at second and Polanco wasn’t playing for them. Two of our scouts recommended him and said he would help our ball club.” 『我們想在二壘作些補強，而費城對爾畢納滿有興趣的，我們的牛棚人才濟濟，不缺他一 個，而費城有阿特力守二壘，不需要波蘭哥，加上有兩個球探建議說波蘭哥是個好貨。』 咚布洛斯基說。 Polanco has helped the Tigers, and an official scoring change helped Polanco. In a game Aug. 24, he was initially charged with a throwing error, but the scorer, after talking to the umpire, changed it to an error on first baseman Marcus Thames. 波蘭哥幫了大貓，記錄組的改判則幫了波蘭哥。八月二十四日的一場比賽，他本來被記 了一次傳球失誤，不過記錄組在跟裁判討論過後改記一壘手天姆斯的接球失誤。 Rollins Backs Up His Words 羅林斯說到做到 Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies’ shortstop, deserves some kind of honor. 費城的游擊手羅林斯值得大家幫他拍拍手。 Even before spring training, Rollins put his neck on the chopping block, declaring unabashedly that the Phillies were the team to beat this year. 遠在春訓之前，羅林斯就很高調地說今年費城將會強大無比。 Although they are finally contending for the National League East title, courtesy of the Mets’ generosity, the Phillies haven’t lived up to Rollins’ s boast, but he gets no blame. He hasn’t let the team’s lack of cooperation undermine his performance. 即使費城今年得要靠梅子隊最近糟糕的表現，才有機會競爭國聯東區王座，不過羅林斯靠 自己的好表現帶著費城向前走。 A .274 career hitter, Rollins has batted just under .300 most of the season and has produced numerous key hits. 生涯打擊率0.274，羅林斯今年的打擊率只比三成低一點點，並且常常在關鍵時刻擊出安 打。 He was instrumental in the Phillies’ stunning four-game sweep of the Mets last week. On Monday, he led off the third inning with a single and scored on a home run, then singled with one out in the sixth and scored another run. 上星期，羅林斯的表現幫助了費城四場橫掃梅子隊，星期一他在第三局首先上來擊出安打 然後被隊友的全壘打送回來，然後在第六局一出局擊出安打並回來得分。 In the second game, with the Mets leading, 2-0, Rollins led off the eighth inning with a home run, starting the Phillies on their way to a 10-inning victory. The next night, his leadoff homer in the first inning tied the score, and his fifth-inning single contributed to what turned out to be the decisive run. 第二場比賽，梅子領先二比零，羅林斯在第八局首先上場擊出全壘打，帶領費城以十局獲 勝。隔天晚上，他的首打席全壘打把比數扳平，然後在第五局打出了帶勝利打點的安打。 Then in the final game of the series, Rollins opened the first inning with a double, his first of three hits, and scored the first run of what would become an 11-10 series-sweeping victory. 系列賽最後一場，羅林斯首打席二壘打並回來得分，共擊出三支安打帶領費城以11：10 獲勝並橫掃梅子。 A Brewer Who Just Can’t Win 贏不了球的酒鬼們 After 16 successive starts in which they didn’t win once, the Milwaukee Brewers removed Chris Capuano from the starting rotation and relocated him in the bullpen. They had no interest in seeing if Capuano could match the dubious achievement of Jack Nabors. 經過連續16場的先發都贏不了球之後，酒鬼們把卡普阿諾從先發輪值丟到牛棚去， 他們一點都不想知道卡普阿諾能不能打平 Jack Nabors 創下的了不起紀錄。 In 1916, according to Elias, Nabors made 17 consecutive starts for the Philadelphia Athletics without him or them winning. Nabors’s inability to win something he started isn’t the worst case of pitching futility. In 1912, Walt Dickson made 18 consecutive starts that the Boston Braves lost. 根據Elias的資料，1916年，Nabors在費城運動家隊創下連續先發17場都沒贏球的了不 起記錄，不管是先發勝投或球隊勝利，通通都沒有。不過Nabros還不是史上最遜的，1912 年，Walt Dickson 在波士頓勇士隊連續先發的18場，他們一場都沒贏。 Capuano, who last won May 7 and whose winless streak symbolizes the Brewers’ collapse, may still get a chance to extend his streak, but for now he is a relief pitcher. That doesn’t mean he has been able to escape losing. In his first two relief appearances, he was the losing pitcher, meaning the Brewers had lost 18 consecutive games in which he had pitched. 卡普阿諾，他的連續輸球記錄象徵了酒鬼們的全面崩潰，他上一次贏球是在五月七日。 也許以後他還有機會延續這個記錄，不過他現在是個後援投手。作為後援投手不一定就 代表卡普阿諾不會輸球，他的前兩次後援上場還是輸球，所以酒鬼們在他出賽的時候已經 連輸了18場了。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Chris Capuano 真的應該去行天宮拜拜才對。 --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.131.197.86 ※ goopa:轉錄至看板 Phillies 09/02 14:20