By Nate Silver 原文 http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=silver/060418 http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=silver/060418_2 我們有四人上榜，算很多。 34. Victor Martinez, C, Cleveland Indians (27) PECOTA has one particular worry with Martinez, which is the ability of a slow-footed catcher -- Martinez has swiped only one bag in his career -- to maintain a batting average north of .300. Still, it's not like we're talking about Jason Kendall. Even if Martinez' BA corrects into the .270-.280 range, he'll be vying with Joe Mauer for the AL's All-Star catcher job for years to come. 33. Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland Indians (29) Hafner is the Bill Pullman of the baseball world: so consistent that you might not even notice him. Since 2004, the lowest OPS that Hafner had in any full month was .810 (May 2005). So it was only fair that Hafner had a movie-star first week of the 2006 season, including a streak of reaching base 10 straight times, and four home runs in six at-bats. There is little separating Hafner from the considerably more famous David Ortiz. 15. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Cleveland Indians (24) We should recognize that career years don't always come at age 27 or 28; 23-year-olds are capable of outperforming their skill sets as well. PECOTA is a little suspicious that this might have been the case with Peralta last year, and from the early returns this season, it looks like it might be onto something. Still, Peralta's career should fall somewhere within the goalposts represented by Cal Ripken and Travis Fryman. Under most of those scenarios, he'll be tremendously valuable to the Tribe. 14. Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians (23) We defer to Mark Shapiro in appointing the chief of the Three Little Indians -- and it's instructive that Sizemore received a more lucrative contract extension than either Peralta or Victor Martinez. Of the three, Sizemore also has the most room for growth, particularly if he can add more home run power to his frame. Think a left-handed version of Andre Dawson. --

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