標題:America's carmakers A splash in the tank 水缸之水嘩啦啦 Dec 19th 2008 From Economist.com George Bush bails out America's carmakers temporarily—now they are Barack Obama's problem 布希暫時拯救美國汽車業─現在汽車業是歐巴馬的問題了 IN THE run up to George Bush’s announcement on Friday December 19th that he would bail out Detroit’s beleaguered carmakers rumours abounded that perhaps something more drastic was in the offing. Maybe the president would insist on an orderly transition into chapter-11 bankruptcy protection for Chrysler and General Motors—Ford, though also in dire trouble, is in slightly better shape. In the event he elected to do the minimum required to keep the cash-guzzlers on the road. Allowing the American car industry to collapse at the end of his presidency would have amounted to a bail-out for Barack Obama, the president-elect. 布希宣布他的政府將會對飽受折磨的底特律雙雄（福特雖然糟，但相對來說比較好） 伸出援手時，有謠言四起，暗指可能事有蹊蹺。或許布希會堅持要克萊斯勒和GM選擇 「有秩序」的破產法第十一章。布希選擇的是讓這些吃錢為業的企業有最低底線的資源 能夠苟活。讓美國汽車業在布希任內終結等同於是拯救歐巴馬。 A bail-out bill that had swept through the House of Representatives failed to pass in the Senate on December 11th. So Mr Bush instead has had to raid the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP), set up to bail-out Wall Street's banks and other financial institutions. GM and Chrysler will get $13.4 billion in emergency loans with another $4 billion to come in February. Without the cash the pair might have collapsed by the end of the year. The terms of the loan could allow the government to become big shareholders. 儘管汽車業的抒困方案在眾議院輕鬆過關，卻在參議院12月11號的表決中鎩羽而歸。 布希只好從拯救華爾街銀行和其他金融機構的七千億不良資產援助計畫中，挖出134億 緊急貸款，以及二月的另外一筆四十億一併給了GM跟克萊斯勒。沒有這些現金，這雙雄 可能就在年底倒閉。借貸條款則可讓政府成為這兩公司的大股東。 Mr Bush made it clear that the special circumstances of the credit crisis and economic downturn won the car firms this lifeline. Ordinarily they would have been allowed to fail as a just punishment for the bad management and business practices that had got them into their atrocious state. The carmaker were deemed too big to fail—but only for the moment. “In the midst of a financial crisis and a recession allowing the US auto industry to collapse is not a responsible course of action” reckoned Mr Bush. He also accepted that bankruptcy was not an option. Customers would balk at buying cars from companies that had gone bust. 布希表明，這雙雄之所以能得到政府抒困，是因為信貸危機和經濟頹勢等特殊情勢。 正常情況下，GM跟克萊斯勒會因為經營不善以及營商手段不良而被迫倒閉，作為懲罰。 但目前這雙雄規模大到不得倒閉─至少目前不行。「經濟危機和衰退反而讓美國汽車 製造業的倒閉成為不負責任的行為」，布希強調。他也認為兩個製造商的破產不是選擇。 消費者是不會放心購買已經倒閉的汽車企業所生產出來的汽車的。 The loans should keep GM and Chrysler in business until the end of March. By then the decision about how important it is that they survive will fall to Mr Obama. Perhaps they will be in the midst of a potentially successful restructuring by then. But, more likely, the loans will merely allow the American car industry to limp on until the conditions are more favourable for its demise. Although the loans come with a strict set of conditions the chances of restructuring in a short space of time are not high. Although the car industry has in the past shrunk itself and wrung concession from its unions as its market share has dwindled these efforts have usually amounted to doing too little too late. 這次借貸方案應該能讓GM和克萊斯勒持續營運到三月底左右。屆時，這雙雄的生死前途 就得看歐巴馬了。或許他們到時已經成功推動重建計畫也不一定。但比較可能的情況， 是這批貸款僅能讓美國汽車業苟延殘喘到適合他們倒下得時刻。雖然貸款附帶著嚴苛的 條件，但在這麼短的時間內推動成功的重組計畫，著實機率不高。雖然汽車業在過去 也曾自我萎縮，以及股價狂洩時仍能把工會逼到妥協，但這些作為通常都是亡羊補牢， 為時已晚。 A deal with the United Auto Workers (UAW) a year ago to transfer health-care liabilities to a union-run fund and to reduce the pay and benefits of newly hired workers to rates similar to those at the transplants by 2010 was a step in the right direction. But the bail-out bill foundered in the Senate after the UAW declined to take wage cuts in 2009, preferring to see out the remainder of the current contract, which expires in 2011. Mr Bush’s bail-out deal requires the car companies to strike a new deal with the UAW that will make their workers competitve with those of he transplant factories in America of foreign car companies. But wage cuts, which the UAW have so far seemed disinclined to accept, are surely a necessity if America’s car companies are to have any chance of survival. The UAW have slammed this bail-out for the harsh conditions it imposes on workers 幾年前，汽車業與美國聯合汽車工會（UAW）訂定了協議，移轉健保給付負擔給工會 經營的基金，並定於2010年時，將新雇員工補貼縮減至生產移轉廠員工的等級等協議， 是正確的一步。但是，當UAW於2009年拒絕接受調降補貼、僅希望履行現行合約至 2011年時，抒困方案就在參議院被檔下。布希政府的抒困方案要求汽車業與UAW敲定 新的合約，其中規範他們的工人必須能保持與外國汽車業的生產移轉廠員工的競爭力。 但UAW不願接受的薪資調降卻是美國汽車業追求生存的必要手段。UAW已經大肆批評 這次抒困方案對於員工所強加的惡劣條件。 The carmakers will also have to strike deals with creditors to turn debt into equity. Creditor might be persuaded to go along with this plan by the threat of bankruptcy. Much depends on whether creditors believe that Mr Obama is prepared to allow this to happen. So far he has given no indication about how long he might be prepared to prop up Detroit’s carmakers, though he called the bail-out a necessary step and implored the car firms not to “squander” this opportunity to restructure. But one thing is certain—it is now his problem. Mr Bush has waved the carmakers goodbye and pointed them in the direction of Mr Obama’s White House. 這兩家汽車業也必須與債主協商，將債務轉為抵押資產。債主或許會因為不願接受破產 而被迫接受這個計畫。這或許全看債權人如何解讀歐巴馬對此事的態度。目前為止， 歐巴馬並沒有透露他會如何幫助底特律的汽車業，雖然他有表示抒困方案是必要手段， 並且要求汽車業不要「毀了」這次重建的機會。只有一件事情是確定的：現在是歐巴馬 的問題了。布希已經揮手對汽車業說再見，還順手指了指歐巴馬與他的白宮政府。 http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12833915&source=features_box_main 新聞來源: (需有正確連結) -- --

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