標題:China ousts US as top Japanese market By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo Published: August 21 2008 19:11 | Last updated: August 21 2008 23:39 Mainland China overtook the US as Japan’s largest export destination for the first time last month, underlining the growing importance of Chinese demand to the world’s second-largest economy. Exports to China, which have risen in each of the last 38 months, expanded by 16.8 per cent in July to their highest level since the Japanese government began compiling statistics in 1950. At the same time, exports to the US declined by 11.5 per cent, marking the 11th consecutive monthly drop. Overall, shipments rose by 8.1 per cent by value, after falling in June for the first time since 2003, the finance ministry said. Japanese companies such as Toyota, Honda Motor and Komatsu have recently identified an increasing reliance on China and other emerging markets for sales growth as the US economy slows. Honda last month announced double-digit increases in the volume of China sales in the three months to June, compared with a 5 per cent fall in the US. However, the export growth will provide little cheer to policymakers, faced with rising input costs and an uncertain outlook in the economies of Japan’s main trading partners. Japan’s July trade surplus suffered an unexpectedly large decline of 86.6 per cent to Y91.1bn ($829m, €562m, ￡445m) because of an 18.2 per cent surge in imports by value. The market forecast was for a trade surplus in July of more than Y200bn. The fall, the fifth monthly decline in a row, reflected a near 70 per cent rise in the price of crude oil and a more than doubling of the price of coal. Many analysts expect exports to fall again in coming months as the slowdown in western economies begins to have an impact on demand in emerging economies such as China. “It is difficult to believe that Japan will be able to maintain the kind of growth in exports that it saw in July. I think there is a higher chance of a slowdown,” said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. Given China’s growing dependence on the EU as an export destination, Chinese growth was likely to decelerate, leading in turn to a slowdown in Japanese exports to China, Mr Morita said. Royal Bank of Scotland said demand from Asia would probably continue to support overall export levels, but “we no longer expect it to offset completely the negative shock from the US”. Commentators also said the strength of exports in July appeared to have been a temporary reaction to a relatively sharp decline in the April to June quarter. The Bank of Japan pointed to the weakening prospects for exports earlier this week when it lowered its assessment of economic prospects for the second month in a row. It voted to keep interest rates at 0.5 per cent, the lowest level among developed economies. The Japanese government is expected to unveil an economic stimulus package shortly, possibly as early as Friday. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/938fdeb8-6fab-11dd-986f-0000779fd18c.html 新聞來源: (需有正確連結) -- --

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