值得訝異的是，Obama跟McCain的對決，Obama竟然會在Msachusetts (12)輸掉。2004年Kerry在該處拿了62%的選票，橫掃全部的county， 該州看起來不像是民主黨會輸的地方。這份民調或許說明了McCain對 中間選民的吸引力。 另外雖然McCain板友對Virginia相當有信心，不過民調顯示Obama 能拿下Virginia(13)，補償了丟掉Msachusetts的差距。近年總統大選 Virgina並不能算是共和黨的鐵票區。2000年跟2004年兩黨在Virginia的 差距便頗為有限，Kerry輸得比Gore多了一些，不過也只差 Bush八個百分點左右。 另外Obama還能從共和黨手中搶下Missouri(11)，除了一次例外，歷年 來Missouri的贏家都能當上總統；兩黨在兩次大選差距都不到1%的Iowa(7) ；以及Colorado(9)。總計Obama跟McCain的對決，Obama會以274票打敗253。 相對的Clinton跟McCain的對決會以176對327的懸殊差距落敗。雖然 相較於Obama，Clinton能以小幅差距守住Msachusetts，也能搶回Missouri ，不過會讓出Minnesota(10)。另外在Washington(11)、Michigan(17)與McCain打 平，再加上California(55)很危險的只以2個百分點的幅度領先。或許顯示 了Clinton很難去跟McCain去競爭中間選民的支持。 最後，最引人注目的Florida(27)跟Ohio(20)；Florida方面Obama以16%的 懸殊差距落後，Clinton表現好得多，只差6%。Ohio方面雖然不論跟HC， BO對決，JM都是領先的，不過幅度也都只有1%。顯示Ohio今年還是雙方 爭奪的關鍵要地。 Barack Obama vs. John McCain Head to Head Matchup Polls Last Updated: 2/20/08 http://www.presidentelectionpolls.com/2008/presidential-matchups/ barack-obama-vs-john-mccain.html Number of electoral votes based on the latest polls for each state: Barack Obama - 274 John McCain - 253 National Poll Averages by Month Month BO JM February 48.2 44.2 January 43.7 44.6 Latest Poll Results By State State #EV End Date Barack Obama John McCain California 55 2/1/08 47.0 40.0 New York 31 2/14/08 47.0 40.0 Massachusetts 12 1/21/08 45.0 50.0 Illinois 21 1/24/08 58.0 37.0 Alabama 9 1/17/08 29.0 63.0 Ohio 20 2/12/08 38.0 39.0 Minnesota 10 2/16/08 53.0 38.0 Pennsylvania 21 2/14/08 49.0 39.0 Wisconsin 10 2/10/08 45.0 44.0 Nevada 5 2/12/08 50.0 38.0 Washington 11 2/4/08 55.0 38.0 Oklahoma 7 1/30/08 30.0 58.0 Colorado 9 2/14/08 46.0 39.0 Missouri 11 1/24/08 47.0 42.0 Rhode Island 4 2/10/08 42.0 30.0 New Mexico 5 1/21/08 41.0 50.0 Oregon 7 2/13/08 49.0 40.0 Virginia 13 2/17/08 51.0 45.0 Indiana 11 2/4/08 40.0 50.0 Kansas 6 1/17/08 39.0 53.0 Kentucky 8 2/4/08 32.0 61.0 Iowa 7 2/17/08 51.0 41.0 New Hampshire 4 2/11/08 49.0 36.0 Michigan 17 2/17/08 47.0 39.0 Florida 27 2/16/08 37.0 53.0 Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain Head to Head Matchup Polls Last Updated: 2/20/08 http://www.presidentelectionpolls.com/2008/ presidential-matchups/hillary-clinton-vs-john-mccain.html Number of electoral votes based on the latest polls for each state: Hillary Clinton - 176 John McCain - 327 National Poll Averages by Month Month HC JM February 44.4 48.2 January 44.0 46.3 Latest Poll Results By State State #EV End Date Hillary Clinton John McCain California 55 2/1/08 45.0 43.0 New York 31 2/14/08 49.0 42.0 Massachusetts 12 1/21/08 49.0 45.0 Illinois 21 1/24/08 54.0 40.0 Alabama 9 1/17/08 37.0 58.0 Ohio 20 2/12/08 43.0 44.0 Minnesota 10 2/16/08 42.0 47.0 Pennsylvania 21 2/14/08 42.0 44.0 Wisconsin 10 2/17/08 42.0 49.0 Nevada 5 2/12/08 40.0 49.0 Washington 11 2/4/08 46.0 46.0 Oklahoma 7 1/30/08 36.0 57.0 Colorado 9 2/14/08 35.0 49.0 Missouri 11 1/24/08 45.0 44.0 Rhode Island 4 2/10/08 43.0 32.0 New Mexico 5 1/21/08 42.0 51.0 Oregon 7 2/13/08 42.0 45.0 Virginia 13 2/17/08 45.0 48.0 Indiana 11 2/4/08 42.0 51.0 Kansas 6 1/17/08 40.0 53.0 Kentucky 8 2/4/08 43.0 53.0 Iowa 7 2/17/08 41.0 52.0 New Hampshire 4 2/11/08 43.0 41.0 Michigan 17 2/17/08 44.0 44.0 Florida 27 2/16/08 43.0 49.0 本文願意開放自由轉載 -- Clinton is an essay, solid and reasoned; Obama is a poem, lyric and filled with possibility. Clinton would be a valuable and competent executive, but Obama matches her in substance and adds something that the nation has been missing far too long -- a sense of aspiration. －Los Angels Times --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.127.67.95 ※ 編輯: swallow73 來自: 122.127.67.95 (02/21 16:02)