http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=2857790&name=tennis Henin and the others by: Kamakshi Tandon, TENNIS.com She sat out the beginning of the season to deal with the breakup of her four-year marriage, and fell to a player ranked below 30 in her first tournament back. After winning her next two events against mid-quality fields, she then had a strange mental lapse and let a convincing lead slip away at the Sony Ericsson Open final (where, in truth, she should have lost in the second round). What's more, the effort took so much out of her fragile physique that she suffered breathing problems and had to take the next month off. This is the player who's the formidable favorite to win the French Open? The most physically gruelling Slam of them all? Well … yes, because she -- Justine Henin -- has lost only two matches on clay in the last two years. Her 41-2 record isn't quite as impressive as the 70+ unbeaten mark Rafael Nadal has posted over a similar time frame, but it certainly sets her apart from the rest of the field. Once upon a time, the cast of contenders for the women's title in Paris looked more or less the same as other Slams. Players like Chris Evert, Martina Navratilova, Steffi Graf, Arantxa Sanchez Vicario and Martina Hingis may have been more formidable at certain locations than at others, but were effective enough to be title threats everywhere. But recent No.1s have shown more inclination for hard courts and grass, with their best Roalnd Garros result lagging far behind their results at the other three. Heading into the clay season this year, a perfect storm of slumps, hangups and injuries has conspired to leave Henin looking like the lone contender. The only other name in the conversation is Serena Williams, and clay is her weakest surface. Consider the state of the rest of the field, and you'll see why the bar isn't higher. Potential contenders who do like clay have either been underperforming or injured -- or both -- and are ripe for an early upset (Amelie Mauresmo, Martina Hingis, Nadia Petrova, Elena Dementieva). Others will be vulnerable because they don't like clay and won't have played much coming in (Maria Sharapova, Venus Williams). Serena Williams could fall into this category too, because she's played just three tournaments this year -- but she's won two of them. She'll have to pull off a similar miracle in Paris now that she's pulled out of the clay warmup in Berlin -- and even for Serena, that might be a reach too far. And the group of young players (Nicole Vaidisova, Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic, Anna Chakvetadze) have frequently disappointed when given a chance to take down a big name on a big stage. The rest are either solid perennials or late bloomers who could make a run but are unlikely to win the whole thing. They've got three weeks to make a late statement. Otherwise it looks like Henin -- who defaulted so controversially in the Australian Open final last year -- will be the one winning by default this time. -- 標題不錯... --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.216.88.124