Some top picks bring lotto luck By SEKOU SMITH The Atlanta Journal-Constitution Published on: 05/22/06 Representatives from 14 NBA teams — the Hawks included — will sit nervously in a New Jersey television studio tonight hoping they will win the NBA's version of the golden ticket. That's right, the NBA draft lottery will sort itself out in the midst of ping-pong balls and sweaty palms. But does simply winning the top overall pick in next month's draft ensure instant saving from the league's scrap heap? Ask the Cleveland Cavaliers and the answer will be a resounding YES — as in LeBron James, the top overall pick in 2003. King James and his gang were minutes away from the most stunning upset of what has turned out to be a fabulous NBA playoffs, up 3-2 on the heavily favored Detroit Pistons before losing two in a row and being bounced in Game 7 Sunday. Ask the Washington Wizards and the answer would be a resounding NO — as in Kwame Brown, the top overall pick in the 2001 draft. Brown also made the playoffs this year, but with the Los Angeles Lakers, his second team in five NBA seasons. The first high school player taken with the No. 1 pick, the former Glynn Academy star has been a colossal disappointment and made nowhere near the impact player of several players who were taken after him (Pau Gasol, Richard Jefferson, etc.). That's why it's equally significant to note when a team wins the No. 1 overall pick. Some years a future Hall of Famer such as Tim Duncan will emerge as the No. 1 pick. And some years a future Hall of Role Player such as Joe Smith will emerge as the No. 1 pick. This year's draft class appears to be missing a player the caliber of Duncan, though it's hard to tell now if a transcendent talent is floating around the draft pool. Toronto's Bryan Colangelo, the NBA's Executive of the Year a year ago, confirmed as much to reporters at Air Canada Centre last week. "It's a deep draft," he said. "At the top, there are quite a few players that are worthwhile additions to any club, [but] in terms of one star — one LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan type of pick — it probably doesn't exist at this point." The five best No. 1 picks of the lottery era (1985-present): 1. Tim Duncan, 1997, San Antonio — The good karma in San Antonio knows no bounds. The other time the Spurs won the No. 1 pick was 1987, when they nabbed another 7-foot future Hall of Famer, David Robinson. Only Shaquille O'Neal can match Duncan's championship total (three), but all of Shaq's titles came with a team other than the one that drafted him. Duncan's impact has sustained the Spurs for the past decade. 2. Shaquille O'Neal, 1992, Orlando — Let's hope the Magic, the lottery's most frequent winner, have learned their lesson from letting O'Neal go all those years ago. The self-proclaimed "Most Dominant Ever" led the Magic to an NBA Finals appearance before bolting in free agency to Los Angeles, where he joined the Lakers' storied list of championship greats. The basketball world is waiting to see if the Magic get it right this time with former Southwest Atlanta Christian star Dwight Howard. 3. LeBron James, 2003, Cleveland — Three years into his reign, James is the top vote getter on the All-NBA team and an MVP candidate (he finished second to Steve Nash). More importantly, James transformed a forgotten city into must-stop destination on the NBA's star parade. At 21, he's being compared legitimately to the game's greats. And at 6 feet 8, 250 pounds, he has a chance to create a whole new category of player — he's currently the only member. 4. Patrick Ewing, 1985, New York — Ewing is the man who got it all started way back in 1985 in the most controversial lottery there was. The conspiracy theories persist about the league rigging the ping-pong balls in favor of the team in the league's biggest media market. While Ewing never did win that NBA title, he made the Knicks a perennial power during the league's greatest era. 5. Elton Brand, 1999, Chicago — If the Bulls had just been a bit patient, they'd have reaped the benefits of drafting Brand. Instead, they traded him to the Los Angeles Clippers for Tyson Chandler. They've had to watch, in anguish for sure, the past month as Brand has delivered the long-time league doormat Clippers to the cusp of the Western Conference finals. While a lot of his contemporaries are praised for being "20-10" guys, Brand really is. The five worst No. 1 picks of the lottery era: 1. Michael Olowokandi, 1998, L.A. Clippers — Are there really any words needed to describe the man that is arguably the worst all-time No. 1 pick? 2. Pervis Ellison, 1989, Sacramento — It took the Kings nearly a decade to recover from this debacle at No.1. 3. Kwame Brown, 2001, Washington — Will forever be the answer to the trivia question; who is the first and worst high school player taken with the No. 1 pick? 4. Joe Smith, 1995, Golden State — Doomed by retrospective draft study — Kevin Garnett was drafted fifth in the same year. 5. Brad Daugherty, 1986, Cleveland — A decent pro, but injuries never allowed him to become the dominant force many projected him to become. CHANCES OF WINNING Team Rec. Pct. 1. Portland 21-61 25.0% 2. New York* 23-59 19.9% 3. Charlotte 26-56 13.8% 4. Atlanta 26-56 13.7% 5. Toronto 27-55 8.8% 6. Minnesota 33-49 5.3% 7. Boston 33-49 5.3% 8. Houston 34-48 2.3% 9. Golden State 34-48 2.2% 10. Seattle 35-47 1.1% 11. Orlando 36-46 0.8% 12. New Orleans 38-44 0.7% 13. Philadelphia 38-44 0.6% 14. Utah 41-41 0.5% * To Chicago 資料來源 http://www.ajc.com/hawks/content/sports/hawks/stories/0523lottery.html --

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