Playoff Prospectus Dodgers versus Phillies by Jay Jaffe October 8, 2008 原文全文連結 : http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8179 Previously, Manuel had resisted starting Dobbs in Game Two behind Myers— something he'd done in 14 of Ol' Punchyface's 30 starts— because they were facing the left-handed Sabathia. With the Dodgers considering lefty Clayton Kershaw for the Game Four start against Blanton, Dobbs' playing time might again be curtailed, but Manuel is sure to find him pinch-hitting opportunities. Given the lefty-heavy tilt of the Phillies' bench, it's worth noting that if Hong-Chih Kuo is healthy enough to make LA's roster, Torre could use him to neutralize the threat of a Dobbs or a Stairs in the late innings while still having lefty Joe Beimel on hand to face Utley and Howard. Torre had even less occasion to use his bench against the Cubs than Manuel did against the Brewers, finding them just three plate appearances in the three games. At the moment he's got an odd collection of ex-famous people at his disposal. Bullpens Phillies IP ERA WXRL FRA RHP Brad Lidge 69.1 1.95 7.59 2.32 RHP Ryan Madson 82.2 3.05 2.00 3.43 LHP J.C. Romero 59.0 2.75 2.23 3.02 RHP Chad Durbin 87.2 2.87 1.75 2.90 LHP Scott Eyre 25.1 4.21 1.06 3.39 LHP James Happ 31.2 3.69 -0.02 3.82 RHP Clay Condrey 69.0 3.26 0.26 3.75 Dodgers IP ERA WXRL FRA RHP Jonathan Broxton 69.0 3.13 2.28 3.71 RHP Takashi Saito 47.0 2.49 1.95 2.85 LHP Joe Beimel 49.0 2.02 1.31 3.44 RHP Cory Wade 71.1 2.27 2.84 2.36 RHP Chan Ho Park 95.1 3.40 0.85 3.76 LHP Hong-Chih Kuo 80.0 2.14 2.71 1.86 Beyond that, the real question is whether Kuo has recovered enough from the bout of triceps soreness that kept him off the first-round roster. The Dodgers actually delayed their flight to Philadelphia to squeeze in a simulated game workout for him on Tuesday morning, and appear to be leaning towards including him. His high strikeout rate (10.8 per nine), ability to shut down both righties (.205/.284/.285 this year) and lefties (.202/.216/.340), and multi-inning capability are worth holding up a chartered jet on the tarmac. If he's on the roster, that may push Kershaw towards the Game Four start. If he's not, either sinkerballer Ramon Troncoso (38 IP/4.26 ERA/-0.08 WXRL/4.93 FRA) or the more strikeout-oriented James McDonald (just six major league innings but a 3.26 ERA and 141 Ks in 141 minor league innings, mostly with Double-A Jacksonville) will get the call. Torre has also shown flexibility with regards to his lineup's late-September returns (yes on Furcal, no on Kent) and his bullpen, incorporating Wade despite his general reservations about rookies, finding productive roles for the oft-injured Kuo and the long-ineffective Park, and now tabbing Broxton over Saito. Clearly, the lessons of his Yankee tenure have not been lost; while Broxton's no Mariano Rivera, six of his 15 saves (including the one in the clincher) involved more than three outs. The man's managed more post-season games than any skipper in history (126 and counting) and is well acquainted with the way the game changes in October. That has to count as a plus here. Otherwise, Torre's got a couple of decisions that may put him on the spot (Maddux/Kershaw for Game Four, and Kuo on/off the roster), something he generally tries to avoid. -- ┼══◢ ══════════ ████ ◢██◣ ═══╯ ╰══┼ ║ █ ◢█ 強 投 豪 打 █ █◤ ◥ ˍ LA ║ ║ █◢█◤ ◢ ◣ ◢█◣ ███◣ ███◣ ↖ — — ║ ║ ███◣ █ █ █ █ ▃ █ █◣ █ \ ε ║ ║ █◤◥█ ◥█◤ ◥█◤ ◥██◤ ◥██◤ \ ║ ┼════════════════════════ψwillmango / ︱ ╭══┼ --

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