by Jack Moore - April 28, 2010 Francisco Liriano continued his excellent start to the season last night, with an 8 shutout inning, 10 strikeout start in a 2-0 victory over the Tigers. Now Liriano has only allowed 3 runs in 29 innings, good for a 0.93 ERA. This start is certainly reminiscent of Liriano’s fantastic 2006 season, in which he posted a 2.55 FIP, mostly on the strength of a ridiculous 10.71 K/9 and a fantastic 55.2% ground ball rate. Even though his 2010 FIP is similar, he hasn’t quite returned to the ridiculous level he was at four years ago. Both a .249 BABIP and the unsustainable lack of any home runs allowed have deflated both his ERA and FIP. 高K/9 高GB% 儘管FIP跟他那鬼神的06年差不多 但現在的成績因為那過低的.249BABIP跟0%的HR/FB%是無法維持的 Still, there are some excellent signs from Liriano’s first three starts, which continued in last night’s start. Chief among them is his 51.8% ground ball rate. The home run plagued the left hander last season, as he allowed 21 in only 136.2 innings. His 12.5% HR/FB rate doesn’t suggest any sort of terrible luck. Liriano allowed a 41.2% FB rate last season, which would rank in the top 25 among qualified starters. His trend of avoiding the fly continued last night – of the 24 outs Liriano recorded, only 3 were made in the air, and only 5 total fly balls were hit. 今年的GB%回來了 這是個好現象 去年的FB%過高讓他吃了很大的苦頭 The reason that Liriano’s run-allowed numers will likely remain at or above his 2006 level is due to a drop in strikeouts. His 10 strikeout performance yesterday rose his K/9 to 8.67, but that’s still well below his 2006 level. More importantly, his swinging strike rate is nowhere near the ridiculous 2006 level of 16.4%. Prior to last night’s start, batters whiffed on 11% of his pitches, and they whiffed on 12 of his 112 offerings (10.7%) on Tuesday night. That’s a good mark – about 2% over the SP average – but it probably won’t allow him to return to the one strikeout per inning form that made 2006 so special. 昨天8局10K的表現讓他的K/9上升到8.67 但仍然跟06年差得多 同時揮棒落空的比例也讓他可能無法回到06年的K/9水準 Just because Liriano likely won’t return to this mythical 2006 form certainly doesn’t mean that he won’t be a productive pitcher over the rest of the season. His strikeout rate is above average and his ground ball rate has skyrocketed. Both are excellent signs that Liriano can be a sub-4.00 FIP pitcher and power a Twins rotation containing multiple above average pitchers. 不能恢復成06年的鬼神不代表這一季Liriano就不是個好投手 仍高於聯盟平均的K/9跟超高的滾地率都是他能夠成為FIP低於4的好投手的徵兆 --

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