http://tinyurl.com/om6qoq 先附上表格 Written by Troy Patterson It’s time to finally pull out some early season BABIP(球被打進場內形成安打 的比例) numbers and this week we can look at pitchers who are “struggling” right now, but are headed for much better results. As a reminder, pitchers have little to no control on BABIP and it is more a factor of luck, team defense and league average. Its been shown some pitchers can keep a lower BABIP and is usually a factor of stadium, defense or an effective pitch like the cutter. Not all pitchers who are struggling with BABIP will be useful when their numbers regress to the mean, but we’ll look at some other numbers to see who will be. The top of this list starts with Red Sox ace Josh Beckett, but his problem has not just been BABIP. He also has had a big problem with walks. There have been rumors that he is relying too much on the curveball and that has lead to the high BB/9. You can’t do much with him right now if you own him, but at worst he should have an ERA around 4.00, for what that’s worth. 名單上的第一個人是被基特，但被基特的問題其實不只BABIP，他控球的問題更大。小道 消息指出，他四壞增加的原因是因為他過度依賴他的曲球。你無能為力，但再糟糕，他的 ERA也該回到4左右。 There is then a huge pack of pitchers who are solid or even elite K/BB levels , but poor BABIP luck has caused struggles. Ricky Nolasco, Justin Verlander, Kevin Slowey (12.5!), Javier Vazquez, Jon Lester and Tim Lincecum (ok so he still has a 3.05 ERA, but he should be below 2 right now) are all pitching superbly, but have suffered from small samples of bad luck. Do not lose faith with these guys, as they will all improve their stats as the season continues. 這一區的名單是單純運氣不好的，我知道你懷疑為什麼Lincecum在這裡，那是因為他的 實際ERA原本不該超過2。請對這一區的投手保持信心，他們會逐漸好轉。 The bottom of the list contains a few names that even once luck corrects will not be useful. Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, Gavin Floyd and Ubaldo Jimenez are not going to be useful with K/BB numbers under 2. Jimenez has an advantage with a solid GB%, but he needs to walk less than 5.45 batters per nine innings. 這一區則是就算運氣變好，恐怕也幫助不大區，他們有著比運氣之外更多的問題存在。 Andy Sonnanstine is one I would keep an eye on. He is available in a lot of leagues and was much better last night against the Yanks (4K/0BB). He has always shown solid BB/9 rates and the jump this year has been surprising to say the least. His walks have been pumped by two specific games so hopefully that number drops and he should be someone to keep an eye on. Andy是我想特別提出來的投手，他的BB/9一直非常穩定，只要運氣再好一點，他有機會 獲得更多的進步。 Wait what about Carl Pavano you say? He meets both criteria with a K/BB over 2.50 and is struggling with BABIP. Pavano has been a useful pitcher previously posting K/BB rates over 2.50 in his 2 full seasons in Florida and his first 100 IP season in New York. The limitation had been injuries since then, but he could be useful if healthy. That is a big if, but watch his numbers in the next few starts. As his BABIP and LOB% regress to the mean his ERA will rapidly drop to at least a serviceable starter with an ERA around 4.00. Pavano也是運氣不好的受害者，他應該有4.00左右的ERA，別懷疑。 -- 更多亂七八糟的Fantasy Baseball News http://www.wretch.cc/blog/moneyball --

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