http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1978/simon-lecture.pdf p.18 Statistical Decision Theory and Game Theory Statistical decision theory and game theory are two other important components of the neoclassical revival. The former addresses itself to the question of incorporating uncertainty (or more properly, risk) into the decision-making models. It requires heroic assumptions about the information the decision maker has concerning the probability distributions of the relevant variables, and simply increases by orders of magnitude the computational problems he faces. Game theory addresses itself to the "outguessing" problem that arises whenever an economic actor takes into account the possible reactions to his own decisions of the other actors. To my mind, the main product of the very elegant apparatus of game theory has been to demonstrate quite clearly that it is virtually impossible to define an unambiguous criterion of rationality for this class of situations (or, what amounts to the same thing, a definitive definition of the "solution" of a game). Hence, game theory has not brought to the theories of oligopoly and imperfect competition the relief from their contradictions and complexities that was originally hoped for it. Rather, it has shown that these difficulties are ineradicable. We may be able to reach consensus that a certain criterion of rationality is approriate to a particular game, but if someone challenges the consensus, preferring a different criterion, we will have no logical basis for persuading him that he is wrong. -- http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1994/nash-lecture.pdf p.22 Equilibrium Refinement Nash equilibrium expresses the requirement that a theory of rational behavior recommends to each player a strategy that is optimal in case all of the other players play in accordance with the theory..... -- --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.44.137.12