※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板 #1ZdZMyIa ] 作者: harrishu (永康崔拉斯) 看板: MLB 標題: [情報] Dansby Swanson to Cubs 時間: Sun Dec 18 05:33:46 2022 https://reurl.cc/857peg BREAKING: Shortstop Dansby Swanson and the Chicago Cubs are finalizing an agreem ent on a contract, sources tell ESPN. https://reurl.cc/lZXepq Swanson deal with Cubs is 7 yrs, $177M full no trade clause. No opt outs. Swanson去小熊，七年177M，並有完整不可交易條款。 - https://reurl.cc/WqWNa5 Cubs, shortstop Dansby Swanson agree to deal The deal: Seven years, $177 million, full no-trade clause Grade: B- And then there were none. With Dansby Swanson reaching an agreement with the Cubs on a multiyear contract Saturday, all of this winter's top free agents have come off the board before Christmas, with eight days to spare. While that's not quite an NBA- or NFL-style free agent frenzy, by recent baseball standards it's getting into that territory. In a typical offseason, December is a busy free agent month, but if you look at ESPN's Kiley McDaniel's free agent rankings for this winter, you have to skim down to No. 20 Brandon Drury to find an unsigned player. And let's face it, Drury can certainly help a team, but when he signs it's not going to generate a spate of large-font headlines. You know, the kind of headlines the Cubs had failed to generate so far in a winter that was starting to stir up the ire of an impatient fan base. (Believe me, as a Chicago resident and life-long Midwestener, I've gotten more than an earful of that sentiment.) One by one, the major free agents have come off the market, many of whom had been mentioned in the whisper mill as possible Cubs targets. Finally, Chicago has made some headlines that may actually spur some excitement among the denizens at Wrigley Field. With Swanson, one possibly unfortunate consequence of him being the last of the big four free agent shortstops to come off this winter's market is that his production is always going to be compared to that of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts. It's like being a fan of the University of Missouri football team. You might rank in the top 25 in the recruiting rankings, or even the in-season polls. But a good chunk of the teams ahead of you are going to be fellow SEC schools, which tends to temper one's enthusiasm. Still, the Cubs probably saved their offseason on Saturday from a fan-relations standpoint by landing McDaniel's fifth-ranked free agent (and fourth-ranked shortstop). They can deal with the future comparisons months or years from now. If all goes well, the fact that Swanson will cost the Cubs less than the others in terms of both years and dollars will stand up as a sign that the front office's patient approach in an aggressive market paid off. McDaniel projected a deal of six years, $150 million -- $25 million per season -- for Swanson. As seems to be the theme of this year's free agent market, the Cubs ended up going a year longer on a contract to land a player. If Swanson approaches anything near his recent performance (4.2 bWAR per 650 plate appearances the past three seasons) over the next four or five seasons, that deal will look golden for the Cubs. Swanson is now around the sixth-highest-paid shortstop in terms of annual value, so now it's all up to him to perform at that level. The reason for my measured grade is that I have my concerns about Swanson maintaining that level. The Cubs should be in good shape for 2023 and possibly 2024 as well, but after that it could become a crapshoot. That's the case for many big-money free agent contracts, but Swanson's offensive allure at the moment strikes me as good as it's going to get. Last season's .277/.329/.447 slash line was in line with his three-year performance (.265/.324/.451), so it's not like the Cubs are investing based on a single outlying performance. Still, Swanson has been inconsistent on offense through his career, as you might expect of a player who struck out 182 times last season. He's not a high-walk player, so if he has a down year in the power department or in terms of BABIP, all of a sudden he's a below-league-average producer. In fact, over his big league career, he has put up an OPS+ under 100 in four of his seven seasons, topping out at 115 in his platform season of 2022. Swanson is a shortstop and his bat plays well at that position, but it's not the high-impact stick carried by Correa, Bogaerts and Turner. His value has been tied to additional skills, as Swanson won a Gold Glove in 2022. While he always grades out as a plus performer in the field, last year's elite showing might have been an outlier. He's got good wheels (18 steals in 2022) and should be able to stick at short for a while. Still, as McDaniel notes in his rankings write-up of Swanson, if Swanson's non-hitting skills start to erode sooner than later, putting more of a burden on his bat to carry his bottom-line value, I have my concerns that it won't turn out well. All in all though, this should be a happy weekend on the North Side. At this point of the offseason, when there was literally one top free agent left on the market, the Cubs did well to land the jewel of their hot stove work. Now, with Swanson atop their free agent class, the additions of Cody Bellinger and Jameson Taillon and Brad Boxberger start to carry a little less of a narrative burden. The Cubs still need more at catcher and another corner bat/DH with power would make sense. (Drury?) But the heavy lifting has been done. The Cubs seemed intent on being aggressive this winter, and after Saturday, it's a label we can now accurately hang on them. In time, we'll know if they should have been more aggressive a little bit earlier, before one elite free agent was all there was to get. --

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