Enough with the free throw shooting Posted by Dan Labbe, cleveland.com April 23, 2008 11:42AM http://tinyurl.com/59npe4 這是一篇很冏的文章，我看完之後也很後悔我看了...冏 What's the most overrated stat in the NBA? How about team free throw percentage? NBA最被高估的數據是什麼？作者覺得是團隊罰球命中率...很冏 Want proof? Guess what the San Antonio Spurs last three title teams and the Miami Heat of '05-'06 all had in common. They were in the bottom 5 in the NBA in playoff free throw percentage. 舉出最近幾年拿冠軍的隊伍都是罰球不準的...更冏 Let's look at the numbers. In 2005-2006 San Antonio shot 72.43% from the line in the playoffs. That was the 4th worst of all the playoff teams. The top three free throw percentage teams in last year's playoffs didn't make it past the first round (Toronto, Houston and Denver). 接著拿出一堆歷史數據，證明作者自己奇怪的論點，罰的好會在第一輪被淘汰... 中間一堆數據大家就自己看吧，接著討論到跟騎士隊有關的。 Think that LeBron's and the Cavaliers' free throw shooting is a major issue? Ask the Wizards about how much LeBron's poor free throw shooting has helped them beat the Cavs in the playoffs. Or ask the Pistons how easily they've been able to beat the Cavs the last two postseasons thanks to LeBron's troubles at the stripe. Or ask any other team the Cavaliers have beaten behind James' individual performances. If you want, I suppose you can call up Phil Jackson and ask him to lament all those championships the Lakers didn't win thanks to Hack-a-Shaq. 問問巫師隊，LeBron的罰球有沒有幫他們打敗Cavs？或是去問問活塞隊還有其他被LBJ 個人表現所擊敗的隊伍。然後作者要我們去打電話給禪師，承認駭客戰術幫助了湖人拿 了那麼多總冠軍。 It's entirely possible to go through and cherry-pick single games where free throws have hurt a team. But over the course of a seven-game series, they usually don't matter. Because for the most part free throws are magnified at the ends of games when coaches manipulate their personnel and can get the ball in the hands of their best or most clutch free throw shooters. 作者在此提到一場比賽或許罰球命中率有所影響，但是在季後賽七場的抗戰下來，差距 就沒那麼大了(奇怪，我怎麼覺得七場下來會越差越多？)。是因為在比賽的最後緊要關 頭，教練通常傾向讓最準或是心臟最大的球員持球去罰，所以罰球才會被大家放大檢視。 Here's the big secret about free throws: They're only worth one point. Not only that, make or miss, a team going to the line is going there because they were fouled, right? What do we know about fouls? They add up. And if a key player gets into foul trouble or if an interior defender is forced to play differently because of fouls, that changes the game more than the single point that was converted or not converted at the stripe. 罰球，只值一分。被犯規才能上罰球線，但是犯規會累計。如果一個關鍵球員或是內線 球員有犯規麻煩，這影響比賽內容會遠遠比罰進或罰不進一球還大。 Could it be that free throws attempted per game is a much more important stat than percentage? Even a bad NBA free throw shooting team converts on around 70% of their free throws while the best are around 80%. The difference over 30 free throws between 70 and 80 percent is only three points. 罰球最準的隊伍大概有八成命中率，最差的大概七成。假設一整場比賽罰30球的話，差 距只有三分...||| (可以這樣算嗎？好像也有道理XD) Quantity appears to be much more important than quality. In 2002-03, the Spurs shot 30.3 free throws (3rd) a game in the playoffs and won the title. The Pistons shot 27.3 a game (2nd in the playoffs) and beat the Lakers in the Finals. The Lakers were 2nd that year with 27.9 a game. In 2005-06, Miami shot 30.9 free throws a game in their title run, third best in that year's playoffs. Only the Spurs in 2004-05 and last year were worse than 8th in the playoffs in free throws attempted. I've already shown you that all but the '04-'05 Pistons were near the bottom in playoff free throw percentage, yet quantity seemed more important than quality. 量似乎比質重要。提出歷史數據證明罰越多球越好，不準沒關係，多多益善。 It may not be the most relevant stat, but it seems like a much more relevant stat than free throw percentage, based on the results. 從結果看來，似乎罰球數影響比罰球命中率還要來的大。 So before you rail against the Cavs and their free throw percentage, check the numbers. Great free throw shooting in the playoffs, at least in recent years, has not led to championships. 所以在批評騎士隊的罰球命中率之前，請先看此篇文章XD 好的罰球命中率，並不會帶來球隊的勝利..........................吧 下面的comments也很有趣，有人覺得看完浪費時間，有人覺得是本年度最蠢的分析XD --

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