Two prospects whom we agree on position, one who hits the spread and two who cause some real divergence. Prospects #15-11 are household names but we don’ t always agree on their value. =============================================================================== #15 - Niko Vasquez - Age: 20 Rank: erik - 16, roarke - 18, azruavatar - 17 2008: (R) 237 PA, .312/.405/.460, .384 wOBA (A) 44 PA, .128/.205/.154, .175 wOBA Player Comment: Almost everyone that follows the Cardinals minor league system fell in love with Vasquez after the draft last year and for good reason - his patience at the plate and solid power are alluring. He is the young, high upside position player that many of us pined for in the draft. Only time will tell if he will stay at shortstop and continue his success as he progresses through the system, but I read absolutely nothing into his struggles during his brief time at Quad Cities. He might be the most intriguing position player below Springfield in the system. ~roarke #14 - Clayton Mortensen - Age: 23 Rank: erik - 13, roarke - 14, azruavatar - 14 2008: (AA) 59.2 IP, 48K/22BB, 61% GB, 4.35 FIP (AAA) 80 IP, 57K/42BB, 48% GB, 5.83 FIP Player Comment: Above average groundball rates and good strikeout rates are hallmarks of above average pitchers. Mortensen was rushed through the system after being drafted in 2007 and his results in AAA show it. A drop in K rate in AA compared to 2007 was followed with another drop in both strikeouts and groundballs upon reaching AAA. Mortensen was billed as a college pitcher with some projection given his lanky frame and sinking fastball. His command comes and goes leaving questions about what his overall potential really is. If he walks batters like he did in Quad Cities, he’s a front end pitcher; Springfield and he’s a middle of the rotation. If his command doesn’t improve from the Batavia/Memphis levels, he’ll be hampered to be a league average pitcher. The end result is likely somewhere in between the three options and Cardinal fans may find out as soon as mid-2009. ~azruavatar #13 - Jonathan Jay - Age: 24 Rank: erik - 11, roarke - 9, azruavatar - 13 2008: (AA) 426 PA, .306/.373/.457, .359 wOBA (AAA) 64 PA, .345/.406/.500, .397 wOBA Player Comment: Jay bounced back from his injury plagued 2007 season to have an outstanding (and quite underrated, if you ask me) 2008 season. He had a solid all around season at Springfield and continued his success in his limited appearance at Memphis. I think Jay projects as David DeJesus with a tick better slash stats. He is the epitome of solid but not spectacular and it would be difficult to imagine that he wouldn’t have a role in the major leagues in his future. ~roarke I dream of the day when the minors get a fielding metric that utilizes a PBP system, but until then we have BP’s FRAA. For what it is worth, Jon Jay’s glove was worth +17 runs in center field last season, which is outstanding. His bat would play better there, but there’s that Colby fellow in the system. Color me impressed with what he did with the bat this past season, and if the fielding stats are to be believed, Jay is a solid all-around prospect. ~erik #12 - Allen Craig - Age: 24 Rank: erik - 14, roarke - 10, azruavatar - 9 2008: (AA) 567 PAs, .304/.374/.494, .376 wOBA Player Comment: If David Freese wasn’t in the system, we’d be discussing Allen Craig as the Cardinals next in line for the 3rd base job. He’s hit 24 and 22 HRs over the last two years with decent walk rates and plus power. Questions about his defense have lingered and he’s been used in LF as well as 3B given the depth at the position. The power is real and the contact skills are good enough to hit for average. Expect him to see time in AAA at multiple positions as he gets squeezed by Wallace and Freese. ~azruavatar #11 - Pete Kozma - Age: 20 Rank: erik - 6, roarke - 11, azruavatar - 12 2008: (A) 434 PA, .284/.362/.398, .339 wOBA (AA) 94 PA, .130/.223/.182, .195 wOBA Player Comment: As most of you know, I’ve taken up the position of the resident Kozma apologist here at FR. You can read why here, but I’ll give you the cliff-notes version as to why I’m a Kozma believer: he’s a solid defender at a premium position, and this past season he hit much better than what most people give him credit for. He’s not going to be a star, but having an above average shortstop is very, very valuable. ~erik The most controversial prospect this side of 2006 Anthony Reyes, Kozma started off the year hot and cooled to post good numbers relative to the league. Average or better tools across the board with one exception, he’ll need to keep the walk rate up to counteract the below average power. The offensive plateau for shortstops is low but even then Kozma may have trouble breaching it. ~azruavatar Kozma is the human roller coaster of a prospect - we probably underrated him before last season and then a month in we started to overrate him. It would not surprise me if he is a top 5 prospect next year, but it also would not surprise me if he fell off the list. ~roarke --

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