本來是要付費的文章 趁BP這兩天限免貼一些上來 沒空排板只貼前三個囉 不知道兩天後會不會重新鎖上 原文下面除了Top 10外還有其他分析 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19826 The Top Ten RHP Julio Teheran RHP J.R. Graham RHP Lucas Sims RHP Mauricio Cabrera C Christian Bethancourt LHP Sean Gilmartin SS Jose Peraza LHP Alex Wood 2B Tommy La Stella LHP Luis Merejo 1. Julio Teheran Position: RHP 2012 Stats: 5.08 era (131 IP, 146 H, 97 K, 43 BB) at Triple-A Gwinnett; 5.68 ERA (6.1 IP, 5 H, 5 K, 1 BB) at major-league level The Tools: 6 FB; 6+ CH What Happened in 2012: The high-ceiling arm continued to struggle with his command and the execution of a breaking ball, which caused his prospect stock to drop. Strengths: Easy/fluid arm; excellent extension; fastball works 89-94; plus offering; changeup can be money pitch; fastball disguise with excellent arm speed and late action; several sources put a 7 on the pitch. Weaknesses: Command struggles; can fall out of delivery; fastball can straighten out, especially up in the zone; breaking ball inconsistency; shows slower CB with 12/6, but it’s often too loose; harder upper-70s breaker has two-plane movement, but similar arm speed issues that cause it to slurve. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; major-league quality floor, but breaking ball and command need refinement to reach rotation ceiling. Fantasy Future: With two plus pitches, Teheran has the stuff to be an impact starter; good strikeout potential at peak with delivery/arm to handle workload. The Year Ahead: One of the more frustrating young arms in the game, Teheran was once on the fast track to the top of the rotation, but the upper minors exposed his fringe breaking stuff and his command issues. The arm is still loose and live, and the fastball/changeup combo gives him the firepower to achieve major-league success, but several sources question the ultimate ceiling and the chance to reach it. If Teheran can add some movement to his fastball, continue to execute a high-quality changeup, and find comfort and utility with either of his breaking ball looks, he can still develop into a no. 2 type at the highest level. But the future isn’t as clear and defined as it once appeared for the Colombian righty. Major league ETA: 2011 2. J.R. Graham Position: RHP 2012 Stats: 2.63 ERA (102.2 IP, 88 H, 68 K, 17 BB) at High-A Lynchburg; 3.18 ERA (45.1 IP, 35 H, 42 K, 17 BB) at Double-A Mississippi The Tools: 7 FB; 6 SL; 5 potential CH What Happened in 2012: Making his full-season debut, Graham shoved it in High-A and eventually found his way to Double-A, where the diminutive righty’ s stuff seemed to improve with each start. Strengths: Big-time arm strength; can absolutely bring it; fastball has heavy life and velo, working 93-97 in starts; can sit 96-98 in bursts; impact pitch; slider is plus offering; can manipulate break length; longer in the 83-85 range; can push it to the low-90s with late cut to the glove side; attacks the zone; fearless competitor; good overall command profile. Weaknesses: Lacks height; fastball gives him wiggle room, but needs to work down to create angle; changeup not on same level as slider; can overthrow pitch; shows good vertical life, but command of offering comes and goes. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter Explanation of Risk: Moderate; has high floor with FB/SL mix; has the arsenal and command to start. Fantasy Future: Has bat-missing stuff and groundball tendencies; has a good chance of developing into mid-rotation arm with a slightly higher projection; could be frontline relief arm. The Year Ahead: Graham is legit. He lacks prototypical size, but he’s an athletic arm with impact stuff; the fastball is a beast and the slider is a very promising secondary offering. With a good command profile and feel for the splitter-like changeup, he has all the components to start. He’s going to get undervalued by some because of the size, but this is a future impact arm and he could see the majors in 2013. Major league ETA: 2013 3. Lucas Sims Position: RHP 2012 Stats: 1.29 ERA (7 IP, 2 H, 10 K, 1 BB) at complex-level GCL; 4.33 ERA (27 IP, 26 H, 29 K, 12 BB) at rookie-level Danville The Tools: 6 FB; 6 potential CB; 5+ potential CH What Happened in 2012: 21st overall pick in the 2012 draft, Sims certainly looked the part in short-season ball, showing bat-missing stuff from a clean, athletic delivery. Strengths: Very good athlete; easy delivery; natural; works with a plus fastball; velo in the low-90s and can spike in the mid-90s; some life; multiple breaking ball looks; curve/slider; multiple sources put a future 6 on the CB; good depth and shows good feel for commanding it; can turn over a projectable changeup. Weaknesses: Mixed opinion on physical/arsenal projection; several sources questioned the ultimate upside; battle of the breaking ball: which one can step forward as true bat-missing weapon; loose in the zone with fastball; can work up. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter Explanation of Risk: High risk; long road to the show; projection is debatable. Fantasy Future: Could develop into league-average starter; has potential for more; has pitchability and good raw stuff; could develop in a number of ways. The Year Ahead: The 18-year-old Sims is ready to make the jump to the full-season level, and in turn, start his journey up prospect lists. While his projection is a subject of debate, his track record of success on the hill is well documented and respected. One source said it best: “Sims knows how to stand on the mound and go to work.” With the potential for three above average pitches and a good command profile, Sims could be sitting atop this list in short order. Lots to like with this arm. Major league ETA: 2016 -- ta ╭◢ ◣╮ Jul 26, 2010, vs DET ╭ Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E ╮ hn ║ ◤ ◥╰══════◢██◤════╯ DET 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 ║ es ║ █◣ ◢█◢ ◢◢◣ ◢◤ ◢█◢ ╴TB TB 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 X 5 3 0 ║ w ║ ◣ █ █◢█ █◤ ◢◤ █◢█ ￣￣ρ the ║ e ║◥ ◤ ◥◤◥ █ ◢██◤ ◥◤◥ ◤\〈﹀ IP H R ER BB K HR answer3 r3╰══════════════════════ 9.0 0 0 0 1 6 0═══╯ --

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