作者meier0112 (meier)
看板Braves
標題Atlanta Braves Top 20 Prospects for 2010 by John Sickels
時間Mon Oct 26 08:16:27 2009
Atlanta Braves Top 20 Prospects for 2010 by John Sickels
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too
worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond
the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you
want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics
to do so. The list and grades are based on a blending of present performance
and long-term potential. Full reports on all these players can be found in
the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order..
1) Jason Heyward, OF, Grade A: A complete prospect, perfect Five Tool/Seven
Skill player.
2) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Grade B+: We'll have to see if the wrist injury cuts
into his power development, but given his age he gets some slack.
3) Julio Teheran, RHP, Grade B: I still worry about his health and durability.
4) Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B: A rare thing, an Atlanta pitching prospect
that might be underrated. Usually Braves guys get too much hype.
5) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade B: If his command holds up he can be a bullpen
force.
6) Mike Minor, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline Grade B. Excellent pitchability with
pretty good stuff. I hope I get to see him in Arizona Fall League.
7) Christian Bethancourt, C, Grade B-: Grade includes a lot of projection.
8) J.J. Hoover, RHP, Grade B-: A personal favorite. Need to see him at higher
levels, but I love the K/IP and K/BB ratios.
9) Zeke Spruill, RHP, Grade B-: Younger and more projectable than Hoover, but
I worry about his durability.
10) David Hale, RHP, Grade C+: Power arm from Princeton, another possible
relief mainstay if the command is there.
11) Mycal Jones, SS, Grade C+: Good speed, strikeout rate is rather high,
will he hit at higher levels?
12) Brett DeVall, LHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher if not for questions about
health.
13) Cody Gearrin, RHP, Grade C+: Another possible bullpen reinforcement.
14) Adam Milligan, OF, Grade C+: Great numbers in his pro debut, scouting
reports are mixed, poor BB/K ratio is a caution flag. Could rank as high as
11th.
15) Jose Ortegano, LHP, Grade C+: Could fit as fifth starter or swingman.
16) Robinson Lopez, RHP, Grade C+: Good rookie ball arm, a long way from
being ready but worth watching.
17) Luis Valdez, RHP, Grade C+: Older prospect, scouts don't love him, but
has been great in the upper minors and could help in the pen. Might knock him
down to a Grade C.
18) Edgar Osuna, LHP, Grade C: Numbers and scouting reports all slightly
weaker than Ortegano's.
19) Scott Diamond, LHP, Grade C: Like Osuna and Ortegano, he could appear in
the majors as soon as 2010. Doesn't have great stuff, but could be useful
under the right circumstances.
20) Dimaster Delgado, LHP, Grade C: Good numbers in the Sally League, but
another mediocre-stuff lefty according to the reports I have.
Others (all Grade C right now): Thomas Berryhill, RHP; Caleb Brewer, RHP;
Erik Cordier, RHP; David Francis, RHP; Cory Harrilchak, OF; Ty'Relle Harris,
RHP; Brandon Hicks, SS; Cody Johnson, OF; Jeff Lyman, RHP; Chris Masters,
LHP, Brett Oberholtzer, LHP; Angelo Paulino, RHP; Cory Rasmus, RHP; Gerardo
Rodriguez, 1B; Cole Rohrbaugh, LHP; Riann Spanjer-Furstenberg, 1B; Tyler
Stovall, LHP; Richard Sullivan, LHP; Jacob Thompson, RHP; Matt Young, OF
(might get cut due to space).
I ended up writing about 40 guys, but I have to say that I'm not overly
impressed with this system. They have a near-certain superstar in Heyward, a
good first base prospect in Freeman, and then a huge bunch of questionmarks.
The lack of offensive talent beyond the two elite guys is very striking. I do
not believe in Cody Johnson. I think the strikeouts are going to eat him
alive.
Even the pitching, historically the strength of the system, strikes me as
overrated compared to the "pitching factory" reputation. There are a whole
bunch of projectable young arms at the lower levels, but even the best ones
(Teheran, R. Delgado) still have a lot to prove. There is the raw material
for a good bullpen here (Kimbrel, Gearrin, Hale), and Minor looks like a
solid strike-thrower who will advance rapidly. I love Hoover but we really
need to see him outside the Sally League. They'll probably get one usable
pitcher out of the finesse lefty group (Ortegano, Osuna, Diamond, D. Delgado)
but I don't know which one it will be. I also have no idea how to rank
Rohrbaugh at this stage. You could interchange him with any of the last three.
This is only the second team I've done, so it will be interesting to see how
they compare to other organizations and perhaps I'm being too hard on them.
As always, I'm open to suggestions and discussion, and will to back and
revisit the grades as I get further into the book process.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/
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◆ From: 124.11.143.251
1F:推 bounds:Minor有這樣棒啊,一進來就到第六名 10/26 08:54
2F:推 addshung:Spruill only 9th...... 10/26 09:42
3F:→ addshung:Julio Teheran next JJJ? 10/26 09:42
4F:→ addshung:Craig Kimbrel next Devine? 10/26 09:43
5F:→ peter109809:不是Minor很棒,是其他目前都還在低階,除了Heyward 10/26 12:18
6F:推 peter109809:Freeman Kimbel高階農場其實很空,No.3~5是天份夠好 10/26 12:22
7F:→ peter109809: 3 4 10/26 12:23
8F:推 peter109809:簡單說現在農場就是前兩名加上一票低階天份不錯的投手 10/26 12:33
9F:推 addshung:Schafer graduated 10/26 13:35
10F:推 cirt:Minor有機會2010上大聯盟2011站穩輪值... 10/26 13:58
11F:→ cirt:選他被批的不是他不好,而是沒有第七順位該有的high ceiling 10/26 13:58
12F:推 bounds:2011年的輪值,除非Lowe跟川上交易一個出去且Vaz不續留, 10/26 15:26
13F:→ bounds:不然Minor會有位置嗎?Hanson、JJJ、Huddy、Lowe(or川上) 10/26 15:27
14F:→ bounds:、Vaz續留的話,2011時Minor也是沒有輪值的位置吧 10/26 15:27
15F:推 Roawen:去年B-以上的有13人 今年減少到9人.. 10/26 17:40
16F:推 Roawen:同意Cirt 其實這幾年除了Hanson外 沒一個真正的被我們養起 10/26 17:43
17F:→ Roawen:來..連要撐住4~5號SP都有點困難..Minor目前在打擊天堂AFL 10/26 17:44
18F:→ Roawen:投得還不錯..明年說不定會2A開季? Teheran如果真的養起來 10/26 17:45
19F:→ Roawen:等級會比楚真高一個層次吧..XD 10/26 17:45
20F:推 peter109809:很正常吧,graduated+Locke+Grokys+Flowers 還有9個很 10/26 17:47
21F:→ peter109809:算很不錯了,尤其大部分都還在低階 10/26 17:48
22F:推 Roawen:部分原因也是因為今年國際球員跟6月選秀沒有簽到太多天分股 10/26 17:49
23F:→ Roawen:不然的話 就算有交易跟有畢業的..下面的天分一樣會填上來 10/26 17:49
24F:推 Roawen:但必須承認啦 Sickels非常注重有實際數據了 天分很高還沒 10/26 17:53
25F:→ Roawen:實際成績給他看的 他都會比較保守.. 10/26 17:54
26F:→ peter109809:天分一樣會填上來?prospect養成本來就很難說吧,看看 10/26 17:54
27F:→ peter109809:Rohrbaugh跟Hicks 10/26 17:55
28F:推 Roawen:我沒在跟你吵prospects養成的問題..這個不用你講我也知道 10/26 18:03
29F:→ Roawen:自己去翻一下去年Sickels列B-以上的 有4人是pro debut的 10/26 18:04
30F:→ Roawen:今年列B-以上的 只有Minor跟Bethancourt是pro debut(我沒把 10/26 18:05
31F:→ Roawen:DSL算進去..) 我還用了"部分原因"而已..並非說主要原因 10/26 18:06
32F:→ Roawen:今年選秀跟國際球員補強本來就礙於預算沒作很好 這是事實.. 10/26 18:07
33F:推 HawkLiao:除了前兩名,沒什麼好的打者orz 10/26 18:41
34F:推 bounds:農場主要還是投手為主吧,勇士的野手養成沒什麼好成績 10/26 19:24
35F:推 MizunoTako:這幾年農場有養成功上來的野手還不少啊 10/26 19:27
36F:推 bounds:有好成績的沒幾個吧="= 10/26 19:30
37F:推 gitaboy:打擊方面有缺陷... 10/26 19:31
38F:推 MizunoTako:農場能養到一路上到major就很不錯了吧?@@ 10/26 19:40
39F:推 chaplin6761:除了外野跟1B、3B 有那麼糟嗎? 10/26 20:09
40F:推 peter109809:我只是不認同"下面天份一樣會填上來"這種論點,另外你 10/26 21:44
41F:→ peter109809:都知道Sickels很注重實際數據,那舉去年4人的意思是? 10/26 21:45
42F:推 bagayu:真的覺得學佛好像太快升他上來哩@@"...希望他能養起來 10/27 00:57
43F:推 cirt:我對Vaz續留很悲觀,明年投得好的話付不起投不好就不用談了 10/27 01:53
44F:→ cirt:倒是 Hale 排那麼高我很驚訝...至少 DeVall 該在他前面 10/27 01:56
45F:推 addshung:'cause Hale from fancy school, Princeton? 10/27 02:02
46F:推 Gerrard1004:這幾年野手成功的也不算少吧 QQ 10/27 09:22
47F:→ Gerrard1004:古巴男,KJ M30 粉酷算嗎=.= 10/27 09:22
48F:→ Gerrard1004:還有小熊大爆發的DORESA... 10/27 09:23
49F:推 silentk:只是沒有養出期待的砲,不然跟在打WS的那隊比,野手養成沒 10/27 11:51
50F:→ silentk:輸很多,看到Werth爆發 唉 我們找得到種等級的右手砲嗎? 10/27 11:56