Reasons for Jays' optimism and pessimism RENE JOHNSON/TORONTO STAR January 09, 2007 Richard Griffin While Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi optimistically claims that he would match his current batting order with any team in the league, insisting his rotation needs just one middle-of-the-order addition, there are critics that pessimistically insist his team, with 83 days until the opener is worse than a year ago at the same stage of the winter. Here are both sides of the Jays' '07 argument, an examination of the pros and cons if the Jays were to merely stay put. THE ROTATION: Optimistically, how can anyone argue with a rotation headed by one of baseball's few true aces, Roy Halladay? He was well on his way to 20 wins when blown saves, lack of run support and nagging injuries did him in. A.J. Burnett, if healthy, was on pace for 15 wins. He has crackling No. 2 stuff and is due. Gustavo Chacin won 13 as a rookie and is healthy. Josh Towers won 30 times in 62 starts from '03-05 and just needs to forget about '06. Shaun Marcum is a potential No. 5 stud. Pessimistically, Halladay hasn't had a 20-win season since '03, may work out too hard and throws too many innings to stay healthy. Burnett has turned 30 without winning more than 12 games, while Chacin's funky delivery isn't so mysterious to opposing hitters anymore. Towers finally showed why the O's gave up on him and the No. 5 spot is a tossup among several not-ready-for-prime-timers. THE BULLPEN: Optimistically, B.J. Ryan was baseball's most dominant closer in the first half. His 14 post-all-star saves weren't his fault. Manager John Gibbons admitted a mistake in having Ryan pitch more than an inning as often as he did. The fireballing Brandon League can handle the setup role, with help from Jason Frasor, Jeremy Accardo and some decent lefties. Pessimistically, Ryan is solid, but how many saves will be there if the set-up guys can't handle the heat? Neither Scott Downs, nor Brian Tallet is a true situational lefty. Successful bullpens need more veteran savvy out behind the fence. CATCHER AND INFIELD: Optimistically, third baseman Troy Glaus has had a winter to rest up and be healthy. First baseman Lyle Overbay gets better every year. Aaron Hill will be a better player knowing he is the second baseman, while learning from veteran Royce Clayton. Catcher Gregg Zaun knows the pitching staff and that throwing out runners in the AL is overrated. Pessimistically, the triangle formed by catcher, second baseman and shortstop may be the weakest among all AL contenders. Clayton is 38 and with his seventh team in the last six years. Glaus's health is a problem and Overbay and Zaun are the only two lefthanded bats. OUTFIELD AND DH: Optimistically, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Reed Johnson form the best defensive outfield in the AL. DH Frank Thomas is back to where he was earlier in his career as a two-time MVP. The middle of the Jays order is as fearsome as any in the AL. A rich and happy Wells will excel, now that he doesn't have to worry about where he will be playing. Getting rid of Frank Catalanotto and Eric Hinske improved the outfield defence. When starters need a rest, Matt Stairs can play a corner, because any of the other three guys can play centre field and play it well. For the pessimist, the Catalanotto-Johnson platoon was great and Cat will be missed. Johnson has just one season of more than 461 at-bats, while Rios's career high is 481 at-bats. The rickety Stairs did not even realize that he was being signed as a fourth outfielder. As for Thomas, his inability to play a defensive position or to run the bases will cost the team its aggressiveness and versatility. THE BENCH: Even the most ardent Pollyanna would cringe at the Jays' ability to fill in when faced with minor injuries. If the Jays open with 11 pitchers, the bench would be led by C/1B Jason Phillips, OF/DH/1B Stairs, middle infielders John McDonald and Jason Phillips and 3B/1B John Hattig. Yikes! The good news is that the Jays still have a budget of $9-10 million (U.S.) for 2007. The bad news is that most of the desired talent that would actually warrant that kind of salary has already been signed. --

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