今年整體來講是below average,但今年前段變化很大,從開季前的Top3(JJ,Travis Bazzana,Nick Kurtz)到現在Top8-11根據各家看法不同.不少人表現很好導致前段排名改 變. 第一輪大部分是College position player,配上一點College Pitcher和少量HS position player. 今年抽籤抽到第四,當然是很不理想而且Receive Sharing recipient只能連兩抽前六,所 以明年最多只能第十(現在看八成是CHW後面第十一...). 去Las Vegas之前,謠傳payroll會增加,看看有沒機會除了draft外可以簽中等FA然後賣掉, 不要只是靠draft和trade market. 今年bonus pool是第五的15,347,900(https://bit.ly/3S2rRAE). 時間 July 14 7:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 1-2, CB Round B and FA compensation picks July 15 2:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 3-10 July 16 2:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 11-20 順位 1st(30) COMP(9) 2nd(26) COMP(9) 3rd(29) 4th(30) COMP(3) after5th #4 #40 #73 #75 #104 #137,#166 revenue sharing多發了#73 以下老樣子以#4為主 2.Travis Bazzana L/R SS College: Oregon State Age:21.9 .407/.568/.911 28HR 76BB/37SO 16SB-21ATT Polish hit tool and plus bat speed. The bat gets on plane early and stays in the zone a long time. Above average power, can homer to the opposite field. Excellect plate discipline, long track record. Excellent advanced data in Power Five conference: Contact%/90th%EV/Chase%=85.1%/108.9mph/13.8%. Contact%/Z-Contact%/O-Contact%=85%/89%/74%(FSS). Above-average speed. Fine defender at second, one of few players can stick at up-the-middle defensive position. Scouts and coaches like his great makeup. Age 21.9. 本次的safe bet,雖然只能守2B但若綠帽拿到八成叫他多練OF,不是大問題, 只有選不選的到的問題. https://youtu.be/7SRxgQhmuM8 https://youtu.be/iMSBTqh7Qk4 https://youtu.be/Ex97hmJpYbc 3.JJ Wetherholt L/R SS/2B College: West Virginia Age:21.8 .331/.472/.589 8HR 30BB/17SO 6SB-6ATT 60 or 70 hit, above average power, quality swing decisions. Excellect plate discipline. Excellent advanced data in Power Five conference: Contact%/90th%EV/Chase%=84.7%/108.2mph/14.1%. Missed several weeks after a hamstring injury (similar injury to last summer with Team USA, trainer Steven Rosier said it's Grade 3 hamstring strain, not last summer's low-grade muscle injury https://bit.ly/4d2q6ev). Above average speed when healthy. Age 21.8. On the President's List and Dean's List. A quarter Korean. Tool和Advanced data跟Travis Bazzana非常相近,差別在於JJ現在就在SS(或可轉2B or 3B),然而JJ躺了一段時間. ESPN圖顯示Contact也很好看 (https://a.espncdn.com/photo/2024/0605/WetherholtMR.png ). 問題在於評估他的 hamstring injury, trainer說跟上次不同但這根本是同個area,這是可以recurring的... https://youtu.be/naRJPA1hWaA https://youtu.be/xsWmNlDZSbA https://www.mlb.com/video/jj-wetherholt-on-playing-for-west-virginia-mlb-draft 7.Braden Montgomery S/R OF College: Texas A&M Age:21.2 .322/.454/.733 27HR 53BB/59SO 5SB-7ATT Switch-hitting OF. 70 power. 70 or 80 arm. Plus bat speed from both sides. LH swing is better. Contact%/90th%EV/Chase%=74.2%/111.1mph/23.3%. Contact%/Z-Contact%/O-Contact%=76%/87%/39%(FSS). K%=22.3% is high for a college hitter(https://bit.ly/4bFaRqV). Transferred from Stanford to Texas A&M. Age 21.2. Ankle injury in the Super Regionals but may not serious. Contact有進步但是還是比前段其他人差,有elite arm和power而且是switch hitter.問題 在於ESPN heat map Chase% and Miss%並不好看,低球內中外角都有50%+的 Miss%(https://a.espncdn.com/photo/2024/0605/MontgomeryMR.png ),屬於偏高風險的選 擇. https://youtu.be/gWkLx9AbqCo https://www.mlb.com/video/2024-draft-braden-montgomery-of https://www.tiktok.com/@pac12network/video/7219458036916686123 8.Nick Kurtz L/L 1B College: Wake Forest Age:21.1 .306/.531/.763 22HR 78BB/42SO 4SB-4ATT Great 6-5, 240 pound frame, plus bat speed, advanced hit tool, 70 raw power, advanced hitting approach. Excellect plate discipline. Excellent advanced data in Power Five conference: Contact%/90th%EV/Chase%=80.2%/110.4mph/13.5%. Contact%/Z-Contact%/O-Contact%=82%/90%/48%(FSS). Age 21.1. 季初的Top3, advanced data亮眼.一個問題是1B track record並不好 (https://bit.ly/4f1kjaW).另一個問題是他沒去Combine,本來JJ的Hamstring是 比較有問題的,但是他至少敢去體檢(事實上那也檢不出什麼),現在Nick Kurtz(shoulder, ribs)不去變成未知數,通常未知數過多Front Office就是直接pass...但是在#4若前面把 安全選擇都選走,可能比起其他人是相對安全的選擇,他跟綠帽以前的交易目標型也很 接近... https://youtu.be/mln4CxybHkg https://youtu.be/b378XFQlc0A https://youtu.be/nA3lwOq60cY 今年誰會被先選大程度取決於asking price (Advisor). 前面#1CLE不知道會做什麼但他們會精打細算,Travis Bazzana or JJ的機率比較高.若省 錢選到後面某人當然是最好.一個講法是若Paul Skenes/Dylan Crews拿9.2MM/9MM的話,其 他人應該要給更少... 第二的CIN可能直接拿Condon或Travis Bazzana剩的. Condon若再往下是比較沒意義因為 COL會攔走,除非是錢的關係.. 第三的COL可能拿Power或Arm,若這樣對綠帽有利.若是JJ-Travis Bazzana-Condon連續被 抽走可能是較不利的. 以綠帽以前的做法,給Nick Kurtz 6-7MM比較會是他們會做的事(If his medical is clean),而不是選有injury risk的JJ,不過Combine因素一加今年就不知道..較新或較小的 Scenario,前面做underslot使得安全牌Travis Bazzana掉得下來.而倒數48小時謠傳既使 Travis Bazzana掉下來也要選Nick Kurtz省錢,就看他們後面中意的人有多好.. Other notable guys: 1.Charlie Condon R/R OF/3B Monster season (.433/.556/1.009), compact swing, plus- plus in game power, hit premium Velocity. Can play corner OF or 3B. Contact%/90th%EV/Chase%=80.9%/112mph/23%. 4.Chase Burns RHP 97-102mph fastball (Stuff+ 122, IVB 20+ inches), high three-quarters slot, 70 grade Slider (Stuff+ 124, HB 8 inches) generates a lot of swing and miss. Excellent performace and K% (100IP 62H 30BB/191SO). Transferred to Wake Forest. 5.Jac Caglianone L/L 1B/LHP 80 row power, significantly cut down on strikeout rate this year. (Zone Contact is 90% but Huge trace rate https://a.espncdn.com/photo/2024/0605/CaglianoneCR.png ). ESPN Chase% heat map looks all over the place. 97-100mph fastball. TJ in HS. 6.Hagen Smith LHP 94-100mph fastball (Stuff+ 116), Lower 3/4 slot. 70 grade slider (Stuff+ 113, HB 5-6 inches). Excellent performace and K% (84IP 41H 34BB/161SO). TJ in HS. Mock BA:1205/0318/0404/0422/0517/0531/0617/0701/0708/0712 Jac Caglianone/Chase Burns/JJ Wetherholt/Travis Bazzana/Hagen Smith/Jac Caglianone/Travis Bazzana/ Travis Bazzana/Hagen Smith/Travis Bazzana MLB.com:1215/0327/0503/0517/0531/06070614/0621/0628/0705/0712/0714 Jac Caglianone/Chase Burns/Braden Montgomery/ Nick Kurtz/Braden Montgomery/Braden Montgomery/ Braden Montgomery/Jac Caglianone/Braden Montgomery/ Braden Montgomery/Nick Kurtz/Travis Bazzana PG:0411 Nick Kurtz KL:0515/0619/0711 Nick Kurtz/Nick Kurtz/Nick Kurtz ESPN:0508/0529/0619/0712 Nick Kurtz/Jac Caglianone/Travis Bazzana/Travis Bazzana --

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