作者Anakin (Anakin)
看板Asian-MLB
標題福留孝介成績推估
時間Fri Dec 14 16:30:44 2007
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=699
PECOTA
PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG EqA VORP WARP
465 80 30 4 15 58 70 94 9 3 .289 .401 .504 .303 29.2 4.4
http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2007/11/kosuke-fukudome.html
CHONE
這是11月11日做的。
他推估的打擊三圍是283/373/465，因為前一年出賽數少的關係，推估出來的打席數只
有四百多，如果擴張到600的打席的話，大約有 112次三振，69次保送，38支二壘安打
四支三壘安打，16支全壘打。這大約是Bobby Abreu, JD Drew, Milton Bradley 這類
球員的成績。
"At 16 runs per 600 PA above average hitting, +1 for defense, -5 for
position, and +17 to compare with replacement level, he's a +2.9 win
player. Worth about 45 million over 4 years."
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/cubs_signed_fukudome/
http://0rz.tw/733s9
ZIPS
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection 457 66 134 33 2 13 67 64 100 1 .293 .382 .460 114
2009? 444 66 129 33 1 14 66 59 93 2 .291 .376 .464 113
2010? 386 57 108 26 1 10 57 55 85 2 .280 .372 .430 104
2011? 327 45 90 20 0 8 50 43 72 1 .275 .362 .410 97
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Opt. (15%) 537 91 170 42 3 19 87 87 95 4 .317 .415 .512 135
Pes. (15%) 376 46 98 25 0 8 45 44 86 0 .262 .341 .391 87
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Top Comps: Jay Johnstone, Dixie Walker
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1F：推 Roshiel:PECOTA的預測會不會太樂觀....=.= 12/14 19:16
2F：推 IndyPacers:這種成績很難符合小熊給的約吧 12/14 21:12
3F：→ Anakin:你有看CHONE那一段的評語嗎 @_@ 12/14 21:21
4F：→ Anakin:Worth about 45 million over 4 years 12/14 21:22
5F：→ Anakin:那是簽約前一個月預估的喔 12/14 21:23
6F：→ bryon:阿布明年還領17M說..雖然我也覺得現在的阿布不值這個價… 12/16 00:18