http://0rz.tw/zzgXl 難得HH有人po了認真文... 大家可以看看.... 講條子講的還蠻清楚的... 我把他的comments po出來.. 很中肯... I enjoy listening to a sportscaster in the New York area who sometimes says that in baseball "it's better to be lucky than good, but if you're both lucky and good, you have a chance to be great." I think that is a very wise perspective on the game of baseball. The Rangers' current 46-29 record is built on a lot of good fortune: they were blessed with a light schedule, their offense has over-performed thanks to the highest BABIP in baseball (.321), and their defense has an ERA over 50 points better than their xFIP (3.90 to 4.45). This is exactly the same situation they found themselves in after 75 games last year, except they've managed to make it to the same point in the season with six more wins. The 2009 Rangers won 87 games, so it's reasonable to assume that the 2010 edition will win 90 games or more, even after regressing against tougher competition. They only need to play .500 ball to achieve this, and I think they're better than a .500 ball club. They're both lucky and good, and if they don't pull it off this year, they should be even stronger in 2011. So the question is, can the Angels do better? This is a topic for another discussion, but I think the two teams are fairly evenly matched right now. If the rest of the season began today, remember that Texas has a 4.5 game handicap. The Rangers probably have a slight edge from a superior bullpen, and I have doubts about the ability of the Angel offense to pick up all the slack after the loss of their best hitter. We'll see what the trade deadline fairy brings, but the Rangers' farm system gives them an advantage here too, unless their legal and financial problems prevent them from making the necessary move. The best the Angels can hope for is a close finish at the end of the season, because I think there's almost no chance the Angels can blow the Rangers away this time. If you asked me to pick the winner in that situation, I'd have to ask you, heads or tails? --

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