http://tinyurl.com/2sfw5x Pitching to Pujols By Bernie Miklasz 06/10/2007 12:43 am I’m a stats nut, so you can expect a fairly steady serving of numbers in the new blog. I know this isn’t for everybody, but I hope other statheads enjoy it. Let’s take a look at how pitchers are attacking Albert Pujols this season. He’s having a good year, but not quite up to his usual standards. This guy is so great, it’s a shock when he struggles at anything. I asked a scout the other day: do you see anything different this season in Pujols? The answer: “They’re getting him out with fastballs. More than they used to. ” There’s some truth to it. I’ve limited this quick study to righthanded pitchers, which is what Pujols mostly sees. I have the stuff on the LHP against him, but frankly I respect your time and you probably don’t want to wade through too many numbers. This isn’t supposed to be anything definitive. Just a snap shot, with assistance from my friends at STATS. OK, Pujols vs. the RHP’s Fastballs: Pujols is seeing more fastballs than in the past, and more first-pitch fastballs. RHP were throwing El Hombre fastballs 62.5 percent of the time, and at a rate of 69 percent on the first pitch. Actually, that’s a continuation of a pattern. Beginning in 2003, here’s the percentage of first-pitch fastballs offered to AP: 54; 58; 60; 68; now 69. So far this season, Pujols’ batting average when he puts the ball in play against RHP’s fastballs is .243. How that compares over a five-year period: 2006: .358 2005: .336 2004: .333 2003: .376 Big change, obviously. (Sidebar: when RHP pound fastballs low in the zone, Pujols bats .136 on contact And his weak spot is low and away; on all pitches thrown to him there through June 5, a total of 220, he was batting .074 on contact). So what’s the issue? Is Albert’s bat speed slowing? I don’t think so. One problem could be his passivity relative to swinging at the first pitch. This year Pujols is swinging at first-pitch fastballs only 13.7 percent of the time. (Maybe they aren’t tossing up as many first-pitch strikes). But when Pujols makes contact on first-pitch fastballs, he’s batting .375. I’m generalizing, but it seems that when Albert wants to hit fastballs, he can hit fastballs. The numbers back that up. In 2006, he swung at first-pitch fastballs on 22.2 percent of his at-bats and batted .360 on ‘em. In 2005, he swung at first-pitch fastballs on 24 pct. of his ABs and hit .303. In 2004, he swung at first-pitch fastballs on 28.4 pct. of his ABs and hit .348. In 2003, he swung at first-pitch fastballs on 30 pct. of his ABs and hit .448. Overall this season, Albert has been less aggressive in attacking the first pitch (any pitch), swinging only 11 percent of the time. Before this season, he’s gone after the first pitch between 20 and 26 percent of his ABs. And vs. LHP he’s basically a statue up there on the first pitch; of 60 first pitches thrown by lefties, he’s taken 59 of them. But it isn’t a matter of just being assertive; Pujols does seem to be less lethal in his handling of fastballs. Maybe he’s guessing wrong. He’s even had a hard time when pitchers, working behind in the count, predictably fire fastballs. And maybe he’ll be rerranging the numbers soon. Pujols doesn’t stay down for long. When you watch those Pujols at-bats from now on, take note of his aggressiveness, especially on those first pitches, fastballs included. See if this pattern continues. Next time, we might talk about how pitchers are getting Cardinals’ hitters out with changeups. If you are still awake after reading this, goodbye for now. -B --

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