※ 引述《s58565254 (猜罗)》之铭言： : 原文标题：拜登：通膨为短期现象 联准会必要时应维持美国经济复苏 : 原文连结：https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4682899?exp=a : 发布时间：钜亨网编译张博翔2021/07/20 11:40 : 原文内容： : 美国总统拜登周一 (19 日) 表示，当前物价飙涨预料只是暂时现象，但政府明白，长期 : 不受控制的通膨更需警戒，且将对经济构成真正挑战，他认为联准会 (Fed) 必要时应该 : 设法支持美国经济复苏，但不忘强调他尊重央行决策独立性。 : 拜登表示，随着美国经济恢复强劲已出现一些物价上涨迹象，白宫正在尽其所能解决供应 : 链瓶颈引发的通膨问题，并指出先前暴涨的木材近期正在放缓。 : 拜登接着示警：「倘若长期经历难以控制的通膨，反而会对美国经济构成真正的挑战，尽 : 管这不是我们今天所看到的现象，但我们时时警惕并即时回应。」 : 拜登还向联准会主席鲍尔 (Jerome Powell) 表示：「联准会是独立的机构，也应该采取 : 他们认为必要的任何步骤，以支持强劲、持久的经济复苏。」 : 美国 6 月消费者物价指数 (CPI) 上涨 0.9%，是 13 年来最大涨幅。一项调查显示，由 : 於通膨隐忧日益加剧，美国 7 月的消费者信心指数下降到 5 个月来新低，不过经济学家 : 仍认为，通膨上升只是暂时性现象。 : 此外，拜登仍持续计划扩大对基础设施的投资、照顾老人和儿童，表示这将有助於通过提 : 高生产率来减轻未来的通膨压力。拜登说：「这些措施将提高美国生产力，在不提高物价 : 下提高工资。这将减轻通膨压力，提高劳动力，从而在未来几年内降低物价。」 : 尽管批评人士曾多次警告拜登的经济政策将导致资本主义终结，但经济学家预估，美国的 : 经济增速将达到 40 年来的最高水准。拜登说：「这证明资本主义还存在，我们目前正取 : 得重大进展，以确保该政策能为美国人民带来好处。」 : 心得/评论： ※必需填写满20字 : 资本主义终结会导致什麽後果 : 为什麽要害怕资本主义终结 : 是不是害怕辣个男人的右手 : 捶倒资本主义的高墙 : 人民的意志!人民的法槌! 你们要的翻译来了 题外话 拜登就是ㄧ个善良守序的总统 比起混乱邪恶的川普来说很好预测 先前的反垄断总统命令也是跟联合国决议有关 有兴趣的自己去找联合国的报告吧 关於通膨这件事 我们看权威the FED的董事会会议纪录就好 最近一次是7/7释出的,6/15~16的会议纪录 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210707a.htm 先说结论 承续我以前发的文 现在市场很关心热钱什麽时候要收回去 原本说好2023年底不会全收，但市场一直觉得会提前 现在由於短期通膨比预期高 7/16密西根大学公布的消费者信心指数又比预期差 加上OPEC增产、疫情增温，美股周一大跌只是必然 种种迹象显示，收热钱的时间点可能就像商务舱的承诺一样 要跳票了 而拜登是在暗示FED 不要铁齿，该收就收 而守序善良的拜登不忘说:我尊重FED的独立性 不像混乱邪恶的川普曾说:You are FIRED! 以下正文 联准会的任务只有一个，就是维护世界核平 不是啦，是维持长期通膨稳定 什麽叫长期? 凯因斯说，长期下来我们都死了 所以你死了就叫长期，所以请赶快去死一死吧这样就升息了 不想死?那好吧，1年以下叫短期，3年以上够资格叫长期 (不过还是要看情况,看你问的是经济学家,会计师,基金经理人,政客还是酒驾累犯) FED仍然维持长期通膨2%的目标 不像ECB已将below 2%改成2% p.4我们看到 "Measures of expectations for Federal Reserve policy were little changed over the period. The median re-spondent to the Desk’s surveys of primary dealers and market participants continued to expect the pace of Federal Reserve asset purchases to begin to decline in the first quarter of 2022, although most respondents also saw a reasonable chance that this decline could occur one quarter earlier or later. The median respondent expected purchases to end in the fourth quarter of 2022. The Desk’s survey measures of the expected path of the target federal funds rate were also fairly steady, and the median respondent continued to expect the first target rate increase to occur in the third quarter of 2023. Nearly all Desk survey respondents anticipated that the Summary of Economic Projections would show the median Committee participant projecting either no increase in the target range or one ¼ percentage point increase by the end of 2023." 联准会预估 1. 2022Q1开始减少收购公债(2022Q1开始放缓热钱流出) 2. 也有可能提早到2021Q4或延後到2022Q2 3. 2022Q4停止收购公债 4. 2023Q3才会开始升息，有也是1码 现在市场跟拜登就是在说: 哩咧骗肖!通膨这麽高，还要等到2023年底? 那通膨到底高不高? p.4又看到 "Over the period, market participants focused on data showing lower employment growth and higher inflation readings than had been expected. The median 2021 core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast from the Open Market Desk’s Survey of Primary Dealers jumped nearly 1 percentage point from the previous survey. However, median forecasts for 2022 and 2023 each rose less than 0.1 percent, suggesting expectations for inflationary pressures to subside. Inflation compensation as measured by five-year breakeven rates on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities peaked in mid-May at the highest level in more than a decade, but the increase was driven almost entirely by higher inflation compensation at short horizons. Indeed, one-year-forward inflation compensation at horizons beyond a year was relatively stable." 所以FED觉得不高，而殖利率飙升只是短期通膨的补贴现象 不过当时飙的是3年期、5年期公债，但7月以来连10年期也飙了 市场觉得不妙 那为什麽FED觉得你各位大惊小怪? p.5看到 "The information available at the time of the June 15–16 meeting suggested that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) was expanding in the second quarter at a pace that was faster than in the first quarter of the year. Moreover, labor market conditions had improved further in April and May. Consumer price inflation through April—as measured by the 12-month percentage change in the PCE price index—had picked up notably, largely reflecting transitory factors." 所以FED觉得鉴於GDP成长、失业率降、解封增加消费 通膨上升是短期现象 又 "Recent 12-month change measures of inflation, using either PCE prices or the consumer price index (CPI), were boosted significantly by the base effects of the drop in prices from the spring of 2020 rolling out of the calculation. In addition, a surge in demand as the economy reopened further, combined with production bottlenecks and supply constraints, contributed to the large recent monthly price increases. Total PCE price inflation was 3.6 percent over the 12 months ending in April. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes changes in consumer energy prices and many consumer food prices, was 3.1 percent over the 12 months ending in April. In contrast, the trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was 1.8 percent in April. In May, the 12-month change in the CPI was 5 percent, while core CPI inflation was 3.8 percent over the same period. In the second quarter, the staff’s common inflation expectations index, which combines information from many indicators of inflation expectations and inflation compensation, had returned to the level that prevailed in 2014, a time when inflation was modest." 这里是数学问题 6月开的会看的是2020.05~2021.04的数字 不论CPI或PCE 横跨了2020.06~2020.12美国疫情严重的时间 当时消费不振，自然物价低 PCE是3.6,core PCE是3.1证明这点 FED认为由於基期数字低，而解封後物价又涨得特别快 为什快?因为塞港、缺晶片、缺原料、断料。 所以都是短期现象 而FED自己的模型显示，通膨和2014年相比并非恶化 FED本段结论: "Recent data pointed to a pickup in foreign economic activity in the second quarter. Demand improved as social-distancing restrictions were lifted in the United Kingdom and the euro area following the rollout of vaccines. With the economic reopening under way, purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) in both the manufacturing and services sectors were strong in Europe in April and May. In the emerging market economies (EMEs), manufacturing PMIs and exports were generally robust. However, many EMEs continued to strug-gle to contain the virus amid a slow pace of vaccinations, particularly in South America and parts of Asia. Consumer price inflation continued to rise in many foreign economies, primarily driven by rebounding energy prices and the fading effects of steep price declines seen early last year. Price increases were concentrated in relatively few items, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures remained subdued amid considerable economic slack. 但我们知道疫苗打得差不多的欧洲又燃起来了 而开发中国家没好过 但反过来说，武肺不死，宽松货币政策就不会死 p.8 "The staff’s near-term outlook for inflation was revised up markedly, but the staff continued to expect the rise in inflation this year to be transitory. The 12-month change in total and core PCE prices had moved well above 2 percent in April, and incoming CPI data sug-gested that PCE price inflation would remain high in May. The recent 12-month measures of inflation were being boosted significantly by the base effects of the drop in prices from the spring of 2020 rolling out of the calculation. In addition, the surge in demand as the economy reopened further, combined with production bottlenecks and supply constraints, contributed to the large recent monthly price increases. The staff expected the 12-month change in PCE prices to gradually move down in coming months, reflecting, importantly, the fading of base effects along with smaller expected monthly price increases, but PCE price inflation was forecast to still be well above 2 percent at the end of this year. Over the next year, the transitory price increases caused by bottlenecks and supply constraints were expected to largely reverse, and the growth in demand was forecast to ease. As a result, inflation was projected to slow to slightly below 2 percent in 2022 before moving back up to a bit above 2 percent in 2023, supported by high levels of resource utilization." 这段很重要了 FED早就预料到，今年年底以前通膨都会超过2% 明年起(如果疫情真的真的真的趋缓也真的都解封解封解封) 也都不塞港塞港塞港，供需都达到平衡 在2022年才会渐渐回到2%以下 这也是为何FED将进一步的财政政策改变或贴息计画设在2022年&2023年底 下一段FED提到疫情不确定性对未来经济的影响 也提到未来可能会出现平坦的菲利浦曲线 呈现经济成长但通膨相对低的情况 我就不贴了 又p.9 "That said, participants generally saw supply disruptions and labor shortages as constraining the expansion of economic activity this year. Participants’ projections of real GDP growth in 2022 and 2023 were generally little changed." 所以FED还是很乐观的 但7月的消费者信心指数已经给FED一巴掌了 虽然还有很多其他考量因素 但市场开始不禁怀疑 风向变了? 总结: 如果 1.GDP持续成长+失业率下降+疫苗没打完+没全球解封 通膨高於2都是合理的 2.反之，上数前提若反转但通膨仍高，就是FED提早升息的关键 3.FED已经打定主意观察到年底，今年内是不可能升息的 4.提前(2023年底前)升息的机率愈来愈高，但不会是今年 5.放缓收购公债的脚步则有可能提前到2021Q4 --

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