作者antiyahoo (支那人没有一个是无辜的)
看板medstudent
标题[讨论] 大家真的要小心了
时间Fri Jan 24 22:21:20 2020
刚刚看到一篇paper
以目前情况看
恐怕将成为世界瘟疫
PDF Link:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/vi
ew
Archive：
https://archive.is/XCERo
主要总结：
We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection to be s
ignificantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indic
ating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for i
nfections to stop increasing.?
We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identi
fied , indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also refl
ecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for
this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authoriti
es in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases i
n Wuhan and other areas.
If no change in control or transmission happens,When we expect further outbre
aks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be
exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. in 14 days’ tim
e (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan
to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We
predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shangh
ai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2
020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of impor
ting infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, an
d South Korea.
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikel
y to be effective in halting transmission across China ; with a 99% effective
reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be red
uced by 24.9% on 4 February
希望蔡政府要果断一点……
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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 101.12.29.16 (台湾)
※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/medstudent/M.1579875684.A.F83.html
※ 编辑: antiyahoo (101.12.29.16 台湾), 01/24/2020 22:22:54
※ 编辑: antiyahoo (101.12.29.16 台湾), 01/24/2020 22:24:05
1F：推 jeff52: 扭扭捏捏，要禁不禁的，没有要选举了，能不能果断一点？ 01/24 22:28
2F：→ jeff52: 好像看不到pdf. 01/24 22:29
3F：推 hyperkalemia: 感染力无庸置疑一定散播开的，看看那精美的武汉行程 01/24 22:30
4F：→ hyperkalemia: ，他们那一团还没禁止隔离呢~现在只能祈祷严重度不 01/24 22:30
5F：→ hyperkalemia: 会太高 01/24 22:30
6F：推 jai166: 太强硬又有550万人要乱了 01/24 22:42
7F：推 herced: 正要写XDD 01/24 22:59
9F：→ herced: 另外这不算peer review过的paper，偏像是他们自己做的预测 01/24 23:05
11F：→ mangogreen17: 2019-nCoV感染临床处置.pdf 01/24 23:13
14F：→ herced: 模式不变的话 2/4台湾六例，但我觉得一定不准 01/24 23:35
17F：→ antiyahoo: =youtu.be 01/24 23:37
18F：→ herced: 阿看错了，不是六例，对不起大家 01/24 23:37
20F：推 schooldance: 那个备忘录讲死亡率4%,感觉应该是有所本 01/24 23:53
21F：→ schooldance: 再一阵子各国案例变多,应该就可以一窥实际情况了 01/24 23:55
22F：嘘 littmann: 世卫组织跟白痴没两样，紧急事件不快发 01/25 00:17
23F：推 sunmoonzhang: V Wars 01/25 00:53
24F：→ sunmoonzhang: I am legend 01/25 00:53
25F：推 hygen: 世卫就中共在管的，表现得跟中共一样烂 01/25 11:21
26F：推 jasonsu0514: 550万人觉得美国流感比武汉肺炎严重啊== 01/25 13:51
27F：推 perryppo: 流感有药，肺炎没药啊 01/25 15:17
28F：推 charliedung: who改名成cho算了还信中共的官方报告根本笑话 01/25 15:42
29F：→ reye: 很怕会变成1918西班牙大流感那样席卷全球 01/25 23:45
30F：→ reye: 恐怕是一次大规模的「天择」 01/25 23:45
31F：→ reye: 人类应该要团结起来，已经是物种间的战争了 01/25 23:49
32F：推 jeff52: 现在我们看西班牙流感会觉得不可能再发生，那是因为我们现 01/26 08:46
33F：→ jeff52: 在有流感疫苗有克流感，但冠状病毒没有疫苗没有药物，真 01/26 08:46
34F：→ jeff52: 的要再次发生西班牙流感那样的杀人瘟疫了吗？ 01/26 08:46
35F：推 WMX: 1918年西班牙流感後来莫名就消失在人群中了 01/26 09:46
36F：→ WMX: 查了一下历史，原来流感病毒1933年才被研究出来 01/26 09:47
37F：→ WMX: 人类较不担心流感不是流感不可怕，是已经认识、知道怎样处理 01/26 09:57
38F：→ WMX: 能做该做的都做了，剩下看命 01/26 09:57
39F：→ WMX: 不过冠状病毒是新的问题，不是有了冠状病毒流感就消失阿 01/26 09:58
40F：推 jery1017: 人类才是世界最大的瘟疫 01/26 15:15
41F：→ reye: 所以说西班牙大流感那次是天择 01/26 18:58
43F：→ WMX: 这年龄层表示：你说什麽天择... X 01/26 21:10
44F：推 asyousaid: 世卫总干事衣索比亚籍的，早就是中共的形状 01/27 17:11