原文连结： https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon-musk-teslas-self-driving-tech/ 原文内容： How does Tesla CEO Elon Musk compare his company's still-under-development self-driving systems to the competition from Waymo, Cruise Automation and the like? Easy. He believes his company his "vastly ahead of everyone." 到底 Elon Musk 本人如何看待自家发展中自驾系统对比上 Waymo, Cruise Automation 以及其他同行孰优孰劣呢？ 简单！ 答案是 Musk 认为 Tesla 的自动驾驶技术正大幅领先群雄。 This quote comes from Musk's recent appearance on Lex Friedman's Artificial Intelligence Podcast, where Musk spoke about topics ranging from how much longer people will need to keep their hands on the wheel ("At least six months from here") to what question would you ask of a truly sentient artificial agent ("What's outside the simulation?"). 这段论述出现自Musk本人最近上的一则播客节目中，节目中 Musk 从自动驾驶 何时普及("至少六个月後")，到 Musk 本人对於有情感的人工智慧想问什麽问题 都有谈论。 (Youtube影片) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI But the bulk of the conversation centered around Tesla's pursuit of self-driving vehicles. Tesla has long offered a $5,000 "Full Self-Driving Capability" package for its vehicles, promising access to an eventual software update enabling the company's cars to drive themselves. 但大多数的对话皆围绕在 Tesla 对於自动驾驶车辆的努力 Tesla 长久以来皆提供一项名为 "全自动驾驶能力" 的方案 花$5000就能买到"未来能够获得全自动驾驶能力"的愿景 Musk reiterated this promise, saying: "The hardware currently being produced is capable of full self-driving." However, autonomy won't be an overnight thing where you drive yourself home from work one day and the next morning, after a little OTA action, enjoy a fully automated commute. Musk重申这项承诺：「目前的硬体已经具备进行全自动驾驶所需的运算能力」 然而显然地，全自驾并不是某天早上醒来，就像魔法一般突然拥有 "As we refine the software, the capabilities will increase dramatically, and then the reliability will increase dramatically, and then it will receive regulatory approval." 「当我们逐步妥善软体，自动驾驶的能力会显着的提升，可靠度亦然， 接下来将会受到法规的认可」 This, however, is where Musk's position took an interesting turn. Musk believes autonomy will make a car significantly more valuable, perhaps five times more than a normal, human-driven machine. His conclusion? "If you buy a Tesla today I believe you are buying an appreciating asset, not a depreciating asset." 这里，Musk的论点似乎有了有趣的转变，他相信自动驾驶将会使车辆更有价值， 或许会有非自驾车辆的五倍价值！ 而他的结论是，现在买特斯拉，不但不会折旧 还会开始增值XD Outside of a rare few desirable collector machines and seemingly every Porsche more than 20 years old, few cars actually do wind up appreciating in value significantly. And, very few manufacturers would be bold enough to make that a promise of their new cars. 但事实上，除了少数几台车，还有每台年份20年以上的保时捷，还真的没几台车 会增值，而且也不太会有车商勇敢地给你这个承诺 But back to autonomy, when will the cars start driving themselves? Musk believes you'll need to keep your hands on the wheel for "at least six months from here," raising the question: "How much safer than a person does Autopilot need to be before it's OK to not monitor the car?" 而回到自动驾驶本身，到底何时才能实现，Musk认为至少还需要六个月 这也带出了另一个问题，到底Autopilot要比人类多安全多少， 才能放心的把车交给Autopilot? Musk's basic thesis is that, once Autopilot is proven far safer (perhaps by 200%, he notes), then letting a human take over actually becomes risky behavior. He references the early days of elevators, where a human pilot manually directed them to go up or down with a lever. Now, Musk says, "Nobody wants an elevator operator, because the automated elevator that stops at the floors is much safer." Musk的基本论述是，当Autopilot比人类安全或许200%以上时，让人类接手才是 危险的。他以早期电梯以人工操作为例，现在早就没人想要电梯操作员， 因为电梯本身还更安全。 And what about the competition developing their own self-driving technologies? "To me, right now this seems like game, set and match. I don't want to be complacent or overconfident, but that is literally how it appears right now. I could be wrong, but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone." With competitors like Waymo racking up real-world miles for its self-driving systems, that's an awfully confident statement to make. As ever, the proof will be in the pudding. 「对我来说现在自动驾驶的竞赛胜负已决，我不想太过自满或是过分自信， 但现在看起来就是如此。我可能错了，但现在看起来Tesla的确大幅领先了其他人。」 正当Waymo等其他同业持续累积自驾实地测试里程数时，这看起来似乎是个过分自信 的言论，不过，海水退潮了才会知道谁没穿裤子。 心得/说明：(30字以上) 这两天看到这则很狂的新闻，当很多评比报告都不认为Tesla 的自驾系统是最好的时候，钢铁人依然充满自信。 我真的很喜欢那句话，海水退潮了，就知道谁没穿裤子。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 122.146.70.68 ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/car/M.1555429885.A.D44.html 认真说当然是希望十年後 人类社会的交通技术因为有狂人Musk的冲击而变得更好啦XD ※ 编辑: JLintopPG (122.146.70.68), 04/16/2019 23:59:24