原文网址 https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/16/opinions/afghanistan-collapse-abandonment-jason- 背景介绍: 这是美国陆军退役中校Jason Amerine於8月17号投书CNN的文章。 他是美国陆军军官学校1993年班毕业，於2001年担任驻阿富汗特战部队的领导职。 我个人很喜欢他这篇投书。所以大致翻译成中文。中英对照放在这给大家读。 小弟翻译能力可能不好。前面一些背景介绍我也没有翻译，我直接从他到阿富汗开始 翻译。 ------------------------------以下开始------------------------------- It coincided with a stalemate in Afghanistan's civil war between Taliban forces and the warlord armies of the Northern Alliance. Following 9/11, the US plan was to support those armies in conquering the Taliban and seizing Kabul. The problem with the strategy was that sending these Northern Alliance forces composed of Uzbek, Tajik and Hazara fighters into the Pashtun tribal belt threatened to prolong the civil war rather than end it. 美国後911的阿富汗战略是，和北方联盟合作，把乌兹别克，塔吉克和哈札尔人部队，送到南方普什图人的地区。这导致阿富汗内战得以延长而非结束。 So the warlords of the Northern Alliance seized their tribal lands in the north while Hamid Karzai, a prominent member of the Pashtun tribe, sought to conquer the Pashtun territory in the south. My Special Forces team, along with a CIA paramilitary team, infiltrated Uruzgan province with Karzai to meet up with just a few dozen tribal fighters. Our unlikely campaign followed the same template we witnessed this week as the Taliban swept the country with lightning speed to topple Kabul. 当时北方联盟的目标是拿回阿富汗北方的部落土地。同时，一个有影响力的普什图部落 大老Hamid Karzai也想要控制南方的普什图地区。我的特战单位和中央情报局，和几十 个部落战士，一起和Hamid Karzai一起渗透进入南方的塔里班/普什图地区。过去一周 塔里班席卷全阿富汗，闪电般推翻卡布尔政权，和当时我们的渗透任务产生的结果都是 同样的模式。 From the start of our campaign, Karzai spoke to Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a senior Taliban leader, almost daily. The conversations danced around the topic of surrender as the Northern Alliance quickly seized key cities in the North while Karzai secured the defections of Taliban-aligned tribes in the south 从我们的任务开始，Hamid Karzai几乎天天跟塔里班资深领袖，Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar对谈。他们的对谈围绕在阿富汗北方向北方联盟投降。同时让Hamid Karzai 控制从塔里班叛逃过来的南方部落。 Karzai's narrative was simple: His forces had the military support of the US but he wanted the Pashtun to surrender peacefully. In the wake of 9/11, Pakistan was forced to suspend its support to the Taliban so their regime was isolated and crumbling. Baradar sent one of his last, large forces to attack Karzai's small band of anti-Taliban fighters at Tarin Kowt. When they were routed by American air power, all the major Pashtun tribal leaders began defecting to Karzai's side or declaring neutrality and ending support to the Taliban. Baradar surrendered Kandahar and Afghanistan itself to Karzai in early December 2001. Hamid Karzai的论点非常简单。他有美国的军事支持，但是他也希望南方的普什图人和 平投降。因为911事件後，巴基斯坦被迫停止对塔里班的支持。所以当时塔里班政府已经 被孤立并且开始崩坏。Baradar 派出他最後的塔里班大部队到Tarin Kowt攻击Karzai的 反塔里班小部队，结果该部队被美国空军拦截後，所有普什图族的大部落首长，不是转 投靠Karzai或是宣称维持中立不再支持塔里班。所以在2001年12月月初，Baradar向 Karzai献出南部大城坎达哈以及阿富汗。 With the fall of the Taliban, the US and coalition forces demobilized all the warlords' armies and established the Afghan National Army in hopes of empowering Kabul. Afghanistan was to be protected by an ethnically integrated army controlled by the central government. And the Taliban leadership, who fled to Pakistan, regrouped as Pakistan quietly supported this growing threat (Pakistan has long denied supporting the Taliban). 塔里班政府垮台後，美国和北约联军解编了所有军阀/部落军队。建立了卡布尔中央政府的 阿富汗国军。希望这样可以竖立卡布尔中央的权威(译者着:强干弱枝)。阿富汗如此由一 个多民族混和的中央政府军队保护。同时塔里班领导群逃亡到巴基斯坦。在巴基斯坦安静 的重新组建起来。 The invasion of Iraq caused the entire US military to be drawn into a bloody insurgency that pushed the limits of our all-volunteer army to sustain itself. In Afghanistan, the demobilization of the warlord armies created a security vacuum that slowly spawned a Taliban insurgency, supported by Pakistan. 当美国入侵伊拉克时，几乎整个美军被拉入血腥的伊拉克反叛乱战争。把美国的全志愿役 陆军制度逼到了极限。而在阿富汗，由於军阀军队被解编，导致在阿富汗出现真空，让塔 里班德已在巴基斯坦支持下重启叛乱战争。 The Afghan National Army was still in its infancy and the US could not send forces to respond to this threat as it fought to prevent the collapse of Iraq. The US could not even sanction Pakistan for supporting the Taliban because all of the major supply lines supporting US forces went through Pakistan and had to be maintained through polite diplomacy. 而阿富汗国军还在草创期，同时因为美军在防止伊拉克政府的垮台，所以美国不能送兵力 去回应塔里班。同时，由於美国所有的运输补给都经过巴基斯坦，所以美国也不能透过制 裁巴基斯坦来阻止巴国支持塔里班。 Years of benign neglect followed in Afghanistan as Kabul and all our Afghan allies became more and more alienated by America's lack of action to combat the Taliban. Kabul's legitimacy was based on the Loya Jirga, a tribal council that established the government. But the defense of the nation rested on the Afghan National Army that could only stand and fight when supported by coalition partners. And Kabul faced an insurgency supported by Pakistan. 在多年的良性忽视下，美国缺少直接对付塔里班的行动，导致阿富汗中央政府和北约盟国 越来越对此感到疏远。中央政府的合法性取决於部落会议，但是国防仰赖阿富汗国军，而 阿富汗国军又只能在有北约盟军的协助下作战。同时阿富汗中央政府还要面对由巴基斯坦 支持的叛乱。 The question was: whose support would endure? America's support of Kabul or Pakistan's support to the Taliban? Few believed the US would stay indefinitely and the Afghan National Army needed generations to become a viable fighting force as Afghanistan faced a growing insurgency that had become another civil war. 由此开始，问题变成，是美国对中央政府的支持，还是巴基斯坦对於塔里班的支持，可以 长期的撑下去。很少人相信美国会无限期的出现在阿富汗，并且阿富汗国军需要好几个世 代才能成为一个能打仗的军队。同时阿富汗还面对一场成为内战的叛乱。 For all the criticism of the Afghan National Army's lack of capability, many Americans forget our own Civil War. Though the Federal Army fought the Confederate Army, both armies were composed of locally raised forces like Joshua Chamberlain's famed 20th Maine Volunteer Infantry Regiment that was made famous for defeating the 15th Alabama Infantry Regiment at Gettysburg. Such forces fought bloody battles across America that eventually led to the standing army we have today with no such regional affiliations. But that took decades. 很多人抱怨说阿富汗国军没有战斗力。但是批评者忽略了美国本土的南北内战历史教训 。南北内战期间，联邦军和邦联军都仰赖地方上组建的部队。例如盖兹堡会战当中，击 败邦联军阿拉巴马15步兵团的缅因州20志愿步兵团。遍及於美国的诸多血腥会战，最终 造就了我们今天没有地方隶属关系的常备联邦陆军。但是这种中央化的常备陆军花了好 几十年才建立起来。 But in Afghanistan, locally raised and highly cohesive insurgent tribal forces supported by Pakistan fought a fledgling Afghan National Army that was simply outmatched without coalition forces fighting at its side. Afghanistan settled into a stalemate as Kabul retained control of what territory it could and the Taliban avoided direct confrontations with coalition forces that it could not defeat. The years ticked on as the US effort was simply aimed at maintaining this status quo and depended on an Afghan Army that could not stand without us. 但是在阿富汗战场，由巴基斯坦支持，地方上组建，并且高度团结的部落叛军，对上一 只在没有北约盟军支持时无法与之对抗的阿富汗国军。阿富汗进入了一个僵持阶段。中 央政府控制了能控制的地区，而同时塔里班避免与打不赢的北约盟军直接对抗。所以多 年下来，美国的努力其实只是维持一个现状，而这个现状是维持在依赖美国的阿富汗国 军身上。 With the election of President Barack Obama, the US announced a plan to withdraw from Afghanistan and the people of Afghanistan faced a stark choice: believe in Kabul, backed by an incapable Army that would soon have to stand on its own, or accept that the Taliban were likely going to seize control once again with the backing of Pakistan. 当欧巴马当选美国总统後，美国政府宣布要撤离阿富汗。阿富汗人民面对很残酷的选择: 1. 相信由不合格的阿富汗国军和中央政府，很快就可以在没有美国支持下存活。 2. 接受在巴基斯坦支持下的塔里班，很快就会控制整个阿富汗。 The Obama administration quickly recognized how precarious the situation was in Afghanistan and indefinitely delayed such a withdrawal. If nothing else, it did not want to be the author of Kabul's collapse. But the election of President Donald Trump led to his repeated calls for an immediate withdrawal that established a framework for US departure. 欧巴马政府很快就意识到状况有多危险，所以很快就无限期的搁置撤军。因为欧巴美政 府不希望成为中央政府垮台的凶手。但是川普当选美国总统後，他开始多次宣示要立刻 撤离阿富汗，这也就建立了美国撤离的基础平台。 Many believed President Joe Biden would be more cautious once elected. He witnessed the disastrous fragmentation of Iraq and rise of ISIS when the US departed precipitously. But he pressed on anyway, executing the withdrawal of US forces that left the tribes of Afghanistan little choice but capitulation. The ANA collapsed predictably and there was no longer a Northern Alliance to rally behind. And so everyone surrendered as quickly in 2021 as they did in 2001. The circle was complete. 很多人相信拜登总统会更小心。因为他亲眼见过当美国撤离伊拉克时，伊拉克发生灾难 式的分裂以及伊斯兰国恐怖组织的崛起。但是他还是执行了美军撤离，让阿富汗的部落 除了投降外别无选择。阿富汗国军的垮台预言了不再有北方联盟。所以每个人都跟在 2001年一样，快速的投降，只是这次投降对象从美国支持的北方联盟/中央政府变成塔 里班。完成了一个循环。 Rumor has it that Karzai again negotiated with Baradar in the final days of the Afghan government this week: the roles were reversed as Karzai again sought to limit bloodshed. I do not know if this is true. But the unfolding humanitarian disaster will be anything but bloodless. 有谣言说，这个星期在阿富汗府的最後几天，Hamid Karzai又开始跟Baradar谈判。只是 现在脚色互换，并且Hamid Karzai在一次诉求减少流血。我不知道这是真是假，但是接 下来的人道灾难绝对不会是不流血。 Our mission in 2001 was to remove the terrorist safe havens of Afghanistan. It was an act of revenge. I was proud to see it evolve into something more as little girls went to school and women were allowed to vote. But now the noblest gains of our mission are lost and we are left to say, "At least we got Bin Laden." It just rings so hollow to me. 我们在２００１年的行动是一个复仇行动，任务是把恐怖分子在阿富汗的温床铲除。 我很骄傲可以看到这个行动变的不只是复仇反恐，例如看到小女孩可以上学，女性可 以投票。但是我们任务的这些高贵的成果化为灰烬，然後我们说”至少我们清除了宾 拉登”。我觉得这太空虚了。 The last text from a man I fought beside at Tarin Kowt reads "Hi, Jason my dear friend, thank you for your support...Taliban is already here, if I survive we will contact again. Thank you for everything." I will never understand why he thanked me. 我收到最後一个来自我在Tarin Kowt战友的简讯这样说： 我的好朋友杰森，谢谢你的支持，塔里班来了。如果我活下来我们会再联络，谢谢你 付出的一切。 我想我永远都不能明白他到底为什麽要感谢我。 -- 夫英雄者 胸怀大志 腹有良策 有包藏宇宙之心, 吞吐天地之志 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 45.37.125.142 (美国) ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Warfare/M.1629652464.A.0B7.html 翻译後的心得分享: 虽然这个投书严格来说称不上是战略战史，但是我觉得中校的观点可给很多战史爱好者 很重要的一课。 很多历史的剧变其实关键不是表象，而是根本结构的变化。 就像是有人突然猝死，虽然可能乍看之下很突然，但是解剖可能会发现早有心血管病变。 而阿富汗经历了两场巨变，一场是塔里班快速垮台。另外一场是目前政府的快速垮台。 其实两场垮台都只是最後一个骨牌的结果。真正造就的是无数的台面下部落政治。 我个人读完整篇文章後我觉得作者拿美国南北战争类比有一定参考性。 南北战争时，其实南方和北方政府都还没有完成内部的统一整合。 联邦军和邦联军其实都是州军的联盟。真正的中央政府统一军队。花了很长时间才建立。 而塔里班也好中央政府也罢，其实都是建立在松散部落的基础上。 我个人心得认为之所以阿富汗政府快速垮台，关键还是两点: 1. 巴基斯坦。并且美国拿巴基斯坦没办法，因为该国控制交通补给线。 2. 美国太早推行强干弱枝的政策。解散部落军阀军队。我觉得作者的一个看法很有意思。 不再有北方联盟了。这让我想到南明抗清。最後南明不是靠经制之师对抗满清。 而是地方豪强的个人/地方/部落军队。例如郑成功的军队。 假设明朝完全没有地方豪强的力量呢? 那明朝应该会崩溃的更快。 当然只是我个人看法，给大家看看就好，别太当真。 ※ 编辑: reinherd (45.37.125.142 美国), 08/23/2021 01:41:14 我觉得有些推文要适可而止。这里不是八卦板或是政黑板 说话要有证据。并且我其实有点看不下去 怎麽推文最後变成战两岸政治? 所以我就筛除一些我认为和本文无关或是不适当的推文 本版板规发文严厉，请不要故意用推文来规避板规 ※ 编辑: reinherd (45.37.125.142 美国), 08/24/2021 12:11:20