How I would solve the NBA's tanking problem 要如何解决排名的算计 Under the current system, the NBA's worst team (currently the Jazz) would be rewarded in the lottery. 图说:在现今的体制下，吊车尾的球队(现在是爵士队)会在乐透选秀中获得最大利益。 One of the most successful coaches of the last 50 years just took a stand against ... losing. OK, perhaps the stand was not that bold. But it was the way Mike Krzyzewski said it that stood out. He was asked about NBA teams tanking their seasons for high draft choices, which they can use on Duke's Jabari Parker, Kansas's Andrew Wiggins, or Kentucky's Julius Randle, all of whom made my hoops-nerd heart skip a few beats Tuesday night. 某位过去五十载都非常成功的教头站出来反对…输球，好吧，或许他这样站出来没有我们所 想的那麽英勇无畏，但就是Coach K让这议题发烧。当他被问到NBA球队为乐透选秀牺牲战绩 ，并可望用在杜克的Jabari Parker、堪萨斯Andrew Wiggins或肯塔基Julius Randle等，这 些周二上场让我这球痴心室颤抖的球员身上时。 Coach K's response: "As an American, I wouldn't like to think that an American team would want to lose or create situations where you would want to lose," Krzyzewski said. "I can't even fathom -- I can't go there. I can't believe that that would happen. Maybe I'm naive and I'm going to go read a fairy tale after this." Coach K这麽回应： 「身为一个老美，我不喜欢美国球队想输球，或创造输球的态势。我甚至不敢揣摸，我不敢 相信这会发生，或许是我太傻太天真，我该再去翻翻童话故事书才对。」 The NBA has a tanking problem. As with most NBA problems, it is not quite as big a problem as it appears. To some extent, it is a problem of perception -- there really aren't many teams that you can fairly accuse of tanking. Some of them are just bad. But still, even the perception is a concern for the league. It gets to the heart of the biggest criticism of the NBA: That teams don't take the regular-season as seriously as teams in other sports. 这个排名的算计，跟其他问题比起来，也不算那麽的严重，那只是大家观念上的问题-因为 有些队伍你没法指控他们有在算计，因为他们实在太鸟了。 但即便如此，这观念上的问题还是被大家所关心，这也是NBA当局招致的批评：我们的球队 对例行赛战绩没像其他职业运动这麽的当一回事。 I have a solution to this, and it involves a tweak to the lottery. I will explain that in a minute. But first, let's define "tanking". It is one of those terms that people throw around too easily, and we need to distinguish it from patience. PATIENCE: Management understands the team may not win in the short-term, but the long-term plan is more important. TANKING: The team is actively trying to lose. 我有解药，这也跟乐透签有关，我马上为各位做解说，但首先我们先定义「排名的算计」， 这太容易被玩弄於股掌之间，我们也要从耐心中去分辨它。 耐心：制服组明了短期内无望了，所以长期战略更为重要。 排名的算计：於是这支球队试着放掉比赛。 This is a subtle distinction, but it is an important one. More than ever, smart sports fans understand the value of patient management. (Fans are not so patient with coaches, but that is another column). You don't want your team blowing its future payroll by overpaying a player who is just past his prime. You don't want to trade future first-round picks just to get the current team to .500. You want management to let young pitchers develop, to find the quarterback of the future and nurture him, to stockpile young talent and draft picks instead of just big names. You want patience. 这就是微妙的区别，但还有更重要的，聪明如你的球迷了解这卧薪尝胆的策略(球迷可不像 教练这麽有耐心，但这不在本文讨论范围内)，你也不想你的球队为某个过气的大物付太多 的钱，你也不想把第一轮选秀权当交易筹码只为让球队过五成胜率，你想把农场大物养起来 ，找一个四分卫滋养他，储备年轻战力与选秀权而非大明星，你就需要耐心。 ROSENBERG: NBA teams can't go wrong with Wiggins, Parker, Randle Tanking is different. Tanking is when management tries to assemble the worst possible team, and even sabotages its lineups in an effort to lose games. In the NBA, teams tank so they can get the highest possible draft choice, thereby landing a franchise player. You don't see it as much in other sports because one player means more in basketball, and there is usually a big drop-off from the top of the NBA draft to the rest of it. There are years when the No. 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 picks in the NBA Draft, combined, are not worth as much as the No. 1 pick. 排名的算计是不一样的，它是制服组组合出最差的球队，并试着搞破坏让其输球，在NBA体 制里面它们就能获得较高顺位，这在其他职业运动不常见因为单一球员在篮球运动中变因更 大，且我们也有很多大物弃学生，你如果将过去几年第五到十二顺位的成绩加起来，恐怕还 不及状元签的威力。 Krzyzewski is right: Tanking is un-American, and rewarding it is unseemly. And yet ... well, that is what the NBA lottery does. It rewards teams that try to lose and punishes teams that try to win. To understand the extent of the problem, just look at the odds for the 2013 lottery: Coach K是对的：排名算计太不老美了，回报奖励也不是很适宜。 那就是乐透选秀的制度，奖励输家惩罚赢家，要更了解这问题，我们就来看看2013年的 乐透签 2012-13战绩表 14支末流球队 球队 战绩 状元签机率 三鼎甲机率 Orlando 20-63 25.0 % 64.3% Charlotte 21-61 19.9 55.8 Cleveland 24-58 15.6 46.9 Phoenix 25-57 11.9 37.6 New Orleans 27-55 8.8 29.2 Sacramento 28-54 6.3 21.5 Detroit 29-53 3.6 14.3 Washington 29-53 3.5 10.7 Minnesota 31-51 1.7 - Portland 33-49 1.1 - Philadelphia 34-48 0.8 - Toronto* 34-48 0.7 - Dallas 41-41 0.6 - Utah 43-39 0.5 - *Oklahoma City actually had this choice; the Raptors dealt it to Houston, which traded it in the package for James Harden. But for the purposes of this discussion, let's call it Toronto's draft choice. *雷霆替代了暴龙，因暴龙跟火箭Harden的包裹交易，但在本文中，我们还是看做是暴龙的 Imagine you are a general manager. What does that chart tell you? It says that if you will be bad, you should be REALLY bad. The Magic, which torpedoed their season after Dwight Howard stopped flipping coins and finally decided he really truly did want to be traded, was six times as likely to get the top pick as the Pistons and Wizards. Orlando also had a 64.3 percent chance of getting a top-three pick, and a 100-percent chance of getting a top-four pick. The NBA clearly rewarded Orlando for being awful. 想像一下你是总管，这图表透漏了什麽？他告诉你如果是魔术总管，你惨了，在Dwight Howard胡闹完终於决定自己要被交易到哪一队後，你比Pistons与Wizards有大六倍的机率拿 到状元签，且有64.3%的可能拿到顺位，然後100%的机率拿到前四名，这大大奖励了魔术队 搞砸一切。 Sure, sometimes teams toward the bottom of the lottery jump to the top when the ping-pong balls pop out on lottery night. But in the past few years, quite a few teams looked like they were trying to get one of the three worst records in the league. It is now commonly accepted in the NBA: You either want to contend, or you want to "bottom out" ... there is no virtue in simply being just "pretty good." 当然，有些乐透顺位较低的球队在开奖时又跳了上来，但在过去几年，相当多球队看来是要 故意摆烂的。 这是普遍共识啦，不管你要打好，还是摆烂，对那些「还不错」的球队是没好处的。 How did this happen? When the lottery began, in 1985, the big prize was Georgetown's Patrick Ewing, one of the greatest college players of all-time, and a guy who was already as marketable as almost every star in the NBA. The NBA was worried teams would tank to get Ewing. The lottery was invented. Seven non-playoff teams all had an equal chance at Ewing. There was no benefit to being extra stinky. 这是怎麽发生的，当乐透签1985年开始，当时最大奖Patrick Ewing，最伟大的大学篮球员 中的其中一员，早已像其他NBA球星般声名远播，NBA当局担心球队会对Patrick Ewing算计 ，所以发明了乐透签，七只没打季後赛的球队都有一样的机率，完全没有多余奖励给最鸟的 那支球队。 The Knicks won that lottery, of course, launching a thousand conspiracies. The NBA had accomplished its goal, though: It had eliminated the incentive to tank. The league stuck with its equal-chance lottery until 1990, when it acknowledged that, OK, some brands of stink smell worse than others. Knicks最後赢了，当然，大家也说是阴谋论，NBA当局又玩这种伎俩达成目的，然而，这消 弭算计的动机。联盟到1990年才摆脱均等的制度，当他觉察到，OK，就是有人比别人更鸟。 翻到後面才知跟爵士关系没那麽多... 但也没差，大家都在思考这个制度。 -- GO!JAZZ!GO! --

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