by kickass@road of trade If everybody is a technical analyst( and I think everybody is one) and sell and they look at the same chart or use the same indicators !! they would reach the SAME decision to buy/sell. Now, IF 90% of traders in the market have already have a short position (LIKE TODAY, 8/21) because of their technical indicators WILL THE MARKET STILL GO DOWN???? technical analsis IS USELESS BY ITSELF... IT'S USEFUL WHEN everyone USE IT and it fails everyone 's expectation of its usefullness.. Sounds confusing? it took me a long time and a lot of money to figure it out, now, go and think about it.. == I am also ONLY defending my case... 1.大家或许都看同样的图没错，但解读却可能完全不同，所做的动作也会不同。这段从 4044~5xxx的涨势，大家看的图都一样，但有许多人做多也许多人做空，不代表所有看一 样图的人结果都一样 true, and that's ALSO my point. . In the end, technical is still base on price and time. and there are many STANDARD INTERPRETATION of indicators or patterns. What I am saying is that most of these standard ways of trading a chart pattern has a 50/50 chance of winning(losing). It's MORE profitable to trade AGAINST THEM because you know when these pattern FAIL AND SURPIRSE EVERYONE, everybody is WRONG and have to get out. As I have said, technicals is useful ONLY because everybody ELSE think they are useful.. 2.有人买就有人卖，有1万口的空单，就有1万口的多单，只是每个人的周期或许不同、成 本位置也不同，如此罢了 that's stating the obvious..what does that have to do with price movement?? how does price move?? When people use market orders to hit the bid/offer, and why would they do that? to cut losses when they are WRONG. Fundamental analyst don't cut losses, but majority of technical analyst cut their losses. So we have a situation where price move BECAUSE technical analyst cut their losses WHEN THEY ARE WRONG, (of course..this is not the reason for EVERY market movement) . In this case, doesn't it sound logical to TRADE AGAINST TECHNICAL ANAYLSIS to profit from their losses??? If we come back to the question of whether technicals USEFUL? of course..they are!! they are great tools to trade AGAINST simply because too many people use them..but using them in their textbook format is a suicide and from that pespective, technicals are absoultely USELESS.. 4."技术分析"一词实在太广了，或许80%的技术分析真的无用，但另外20%确实有用。再者 ，就算单靠技术分析无法赚钱，但如果配合资金控管可以让你赚钱，那麽这两者的组合就 是有用 I think we are more in agreement than in disagreement, I don't want to argue just for the sake of creating a argument. It's easy to be accused of mental masturbation. My point is if 80% of it is useless, than saying it is "technicals is useful" is not EXACTLY a accurate statement..don't you agree??? It's much easier to take the 20% out and name it something else, and it's called trend-following.. -- "We have to understand the possible and positive relation between technology, culture and politics. They are not enemies. Tech is more than work and money. Culture is more than just some temples or paintings. Politics is not owned by the politicians or the media manipulation channels." ---Geert Lovink --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 59.117.73.142 ※ 编辑: stasis 来自: 59.117.73.142 (03/08 00:10)