※ [本文转录自 NBA 看板 #1FTJSPc- ] 作者: eertllams (Tree666) 看板: NBA 标题: Fw: [外电] 防守底线三分的重要性 时间: Fri Mar 30 12:31:20 2012 Why corner threes matter for defenses http://tinyurl.com/7ant43u It has become accepted among NBA geeks that the hierarchy of the “best” shots, from most efficient to least, goes something like this: 被大部分的NBA键盘专家认同 最有效率的出手依序为 1. Dunks/layups 1. 灌篮 上篮 2. Free throws 2. 罚球 3. Corner three-pointers 3. 底线三分 4. Other three-pointers 4. 其他三分出手 5. Mid-range shots 5. 中距离投篮 Teams last season shot 39 percent on corner threes, which is about the same percentage teams shoot overall on two-pointers outside the restricted area. Teams last season shot about 35.5 percent on all three-pointers, meaning they shot something like 33.5 percent to 34 percent on three-pointers taken anywhere but the corners. 上个球季全NBA底线三分的命中率是39% 这几乎等同於扣掉冲撞区的两分球命中率 NBA球队上球季的三分命中率是35.5% 换句话说 扣掉底线之外的三分 其他三分命中率大概仅33-34% In short: The corner three is a great shot, something Spurs coach Gregg Popovich understood probably before the Internet became a thing. 简言之: 底线三分是很好的出手 早在网路还没盛行前 波波维奇就已经了解其重要性 Basketball is a game of finite possessions and close scoring margins. It matters if a team’s defense can chase shooters off of corner threes a couple of times per game, and limit those shooters instead to floaters or some other shot that is a) difficult and b) counts for only two points if it goes in. 篮球比赛 就是由有限的持球 跟 得分的一些手段 组成 如果一个球队的防守可以迫使对手减少底线三分出手 改选择比较困难的攻击方式 像是抛射,甚至其他困难的攻击 就算进了 也只是两分 Last week, I noted one reason the Clippers have ranked among the bottom 10 defensive teams this season: Opponents are shooting the lights out (about 44 percent) on corner three-pointers. The league was kind enough to send me data on opponent corner threes for every team over the last two seasons (through March 27), and I sent that data along to a two stats-savvy readers (Eric Maroun and Aaron McGuire, the latter of the fantastic blog Gothic Ginobili). Those guys then measured how strongly defending the corner three correlates with overall defense and team winning percentage. 上周 我注意到快艇被评为本季目前防守的倒数十名 快艇的对手在底线三分可以有44%的命中率 联盟很好心的把这两个球季(三月27号之前)的 每一队的底线三分的资料分享给我 我也随後把资料寄给我俩个统计学上牛逼的读者 他们两位随即分析 把底线三分防守好的球队 跟 球队整体防守跟胜率的 关联性 The answers are interesting, if incomplete. A few general findings before we get to the team level: 分析结果非常有趣 (不过分析目前还不完整) 有些我们的发现 在讨论是那些球队前 先与大家分享 ‧ Limiting attempts seems to matter more than the percentage of corner threes opponents make. That’s not surprising. Lots of studies have found that limiting raw three-point attempts matters more than opponent three-point percentage. The raw number of corner-three attempts allowed last season correlated more strongly with both winning percentage and overall defensive rating than shooting percentage on corner threes, according to work by Maroun and McGuire. It also correlated more strongly with winning percentage than a team’s defensive rebounding rate and the rate at which a team forced turnovers. (In general, the correlation between defensive rebounding and winning percentage is typically stronger than it was last season, according to historical data.) 限制对手的(底线三分)出手数 似乎比对手的底线三分命中率 更为重要! 这不意外 我们发现 能限制对方底线三分的出手数目 跟 球队的整体防守排名还有球队胜利 大为相关! 根据他们的分析还发现 如果比较其他大家熟知的一些参数 (大家都理解的) 防守篮板率 或是 逼迫对方的失误 彼此的高相关 竟然比这篇文章讨论的 球队的胜率 与 限制对手底线三分 还要低一些 ！ In general, the amount of corner threes a team allowed last season correlated strongly with winning percentage as a few other key factors have done so in prior years, including how often a team allows and earns free throws. 对手底线三分出手数 跟胜率有正相关之外 当然还有其他因子也会影响胜率 好比说 你多常让对手占上罚球线? Last season’s Rockets (41.9 percent allowed on corner threes) and Spurs (a league-worst 47 percent) both survived defensively in part because they ranked second and fourth, respectively, in the number of corner-three attempts they permitted. 上个球季火箭对手底线三分有41.9% 马刺更让对手有47%的高命中率(联盟最差) 但是这两队的防守还是让大家称赞 因为以计算对手底线三分出手的话 火箭排第二 马刺排第四 Overall last season, the average team attempted 412 corner threes. Of the 12 defenses that allowed fewer than 412 corner-three tries, nine ranked among the league’s 15 stingiest defenses overall. That group included the Bulls and Celtics, the league’s two best defenses. And of the 12 teams that allowed the most corner-three attempts, only one — the Lakers — ranked better than 17th in points allowed per possession. 上个球季 整体来说 平均的球队底线出手三分数目为 412 次 12只让对手总出手少於 412 次的球队里 9个球队排在防守排名的前15名!! 这包含了公牛与Celtics 而後面12只让对手投超过 412 次的球队里面 防守榜中唯一上榜的 只有湖人在让对手的(100次出手里)平均得分可以排到16名 (连前10都没) There are exceptions, obviously, and this season’s Clippers are an example of how damaging even an average number of corner-three attempts can be if a large chunk of them are wide-open looks. And last season, five of the league’s 10 stingiest defenses, in terms of points allowed per possession, allowed an above-average number of attempts from the corner: the Heat, Magic, Grizzlies, Hornets and Lakers. But four of those teams — all but the Lakers — allowed a number of corner threes close to the league average. Yielding a lot of such shots was generally bad. 当然也有例外 好比说这个球季的快艇队 快艇本身没有让对手有很多底线三分出手数 但是　　大部分出手都是大空档　(对手底线三分命中率44%) 还是队快艇造成很大伤害 ‧ Chicago is ridiculous. The Bulls through 49 games this season had allowed 140 corner-three attempts. The Sixers, through that same stretch, had allowed the second-fewest — 192. The gap between Chicago and Philly is the equivalent of the gap between the Sixers and the league average for corner-three attempts allowed. Chicago opponents are attempting just 2.85 corner threes per game; the average team attempts about five per game. 公牛队很扯.....本球季49场球赛 公牛只让对手地线三分出手140次 76人队也打了49场 让对手出手次数排第二少 但是有192次出手 这两队得差距 差不多就是76人跟联盟平均的差距 所以联盟目前为止 平均让对手出手底线三分224次 以平均来看 一个 球队平均一场底线三分可以出手5次 但你是跟公牛比赛 同样地点你只能出手2.85次 Guess who yielded the fewest corner-three attempts last season? The Bulls, with a total of 305, or about 3.8 per game. They have shaved a full attempt off that number this season. Tom Thibodeau is scary. 那你可以猜猜 上个球季让对手底线三分出手最少的球队是?? 还是公牛! 记得联盟平均是412次 82场的公牛对手 却只能出手305次 平均只有3.8次 但是....今年公牛却让对手在整整在少出手一次 老席 你太可怕了!! ‧ We might be seeing the impact of coaching here in lots of cases. Rick Adelman, for one, appears to be a huge difference-maker in terms of defending the corner three. The Timberwolves allowed a league-high 511 corner-three attempts — about 6.2 per game — last season under Kurt Rambis. Under Adelman, the Wolves have allowed about 4.3 corner threes per game, the fifth-lowest amount. They are playing at a slower pace this season, but the decline — about three possessions per game — does not come close to explaining the drop-off in corner threes on its own. 所以从这份数据 还可以看出教练执教的影响 去年灰狼让对手每场可以出手6.2次 但是在换了经验丰富的Rick Adelman之後 今年对手只能出手4.3次 算是联盟排第五少的 This is especially so when you look at Adelman’s former team, the Rockets. Houston last season allowed the second-fewest corner-three attempts, trailing only the Bulls, but they’ve allowed more than average this season. In fact, the Rockets are on pace to allow about 30 more corner three tries in this 66-game season than they did in the full 82 last season. 而且去年Adelman执教的火箭队 是上季让底线三分出手第二少的! （仅公牛之後） 但是今年的火箭 在Adelman走之後 对手的底线三分出手 是多於联盟平均 换算总数 火箭的步调打完66场 对手总底线三分出手 会比去年的82场多30次 In what probably amounts to a heavy dose of good luck, the Wolves have held opponents to 28.4 percent shooting on corner threes this season. That is unsustainable, but perhaps another sign of how much Adelman emphasizes contesting this shot. 似乎有点运气成份 今年的灰狼对手的底线三分不但出手少 命中率还只有28.4% 不过也许这也要归功於Adelman要求球员能出去挑战对手投篮 Doug Collins’ Philladelphia team, filled with rangy and quick athletes, has effectively shut down the corner three for two years running. Only Chicago has allowed fewer such shots combined over the last two seasons, and Philly opponents have shot below the league average from the corner in both seasons. 文前提到的76人队　　由Doug Collins带领一群体能好速度快的球员 连续两年　很有效的吓阻对手出手底线三分　(两年总数只多公牛) 两年内对手的底线三分命中率　　也低於联盟平均 Another coach to watch: Lawrence Frank. The Pistons are right behind Philly in corner-three attempts allowed after surrendering many more than average last season while playing at a tortoise-like pace. Frank, of course, is a defense-first coach who spent 2010-11 with the Celtics, a team that patrols the corner well. 另一个你可以注意的教练　是Lawrence Frank 去年防守不好得活塞队 在Lawrence的执教下　　今年对手底线三分出手数只输给76人排第三 他是一个防守排第一的教练　　10-11年他在Celtics体系工作 Celtics也是把角落守得很好得球队之一　　 Likewise, the Lakers are allowing about 1.2 fewer attempts from the corner this season under Mike Brown. 湖人今年在Mike Brown的执教下　比去年让对手少出手底线三分1.2次 ‧ Luck may play a part. It would be interesting to spend a bit more time with these numbers to see how much teams can really control opponent shooting percentages from this spot. League observers ranging from Phoenix coach Alvin Gentry to Basketball Prospectus genius Kevin Pelton have argued that random luck plays a fairly large role in three-point percentage against, as evidenced by how the same stat often varies hugely from year-to-year on teams that undergo very little roster turnover. 如果我可以在研究久一点　也许可以发现　 那些球队可以让对手在底线三分的命中率不高　 不过很多篮球专家　　包括太阳队教练简崔　 认为有时候只是随机的运气　　影响着三分球的命中率 所以同样的一个数据　即使球员名单变化不大　 每年跟每年也许都有很大的差异 San Antonio, for instance, is holding teams to 36 percent shooting on corner threes this season after yielding that ghastly 47 percent figure last season. Is that luck, or has Popovich’s club sharpened its focus? 像是今年的马刺　　只让对手底线三分36% 但是去年对手却有超好得47% 是运气成份　　还是波波今年改变得防守方针？ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ※ 转录者: eertllams (71.236.225.133), 时间: 03/30/2012 12:31:20 ※ 编辑: eertllams 来自: 71.236.225.133 (03/30 12:31) ※ jimmy30637:转录至看板 MiamiHeat 03/30 12:55

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