A Thunder free agency primer http://dailythunder.com/2013/07/a-thunder-free-agency-primer-2/ It’s the same story again for the Thunder and free agency. The roster is virtually filled out, and with little money to spend, the only thing potentially to be done would be adding a few peripheral pieces. 雷霆今年的状况依然差不多─阵容几乎满了、能花的钱也不多，只能买买次要球员。 Essentially, Sam Presti’s master plan is working well, but not perfectly. The real backfire to the plan is that Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and James Harden were actually too good, at least too good too soon, and it meant the roster had to be broken up. Presti的伟大计划很不错─但不到完美，因为Russell Westbrook、Serge Ibaka和James Harden打太好了─至少是太快就打出来了，所以不得不拆散他们。 Still: The Thunder have a young, sustainable roster that is maintaining core consistency year over year and there’s not much to be done on the open market in terms of filling out the team. That frustrates some as they see other contending teams take a shot at a veteran player or a big name, but every year it illustrates that some still don’t understand the vision behind the construction of this roster. The Thunder were designed with the intention to avoid that. 雷霆依然拥有年轻、稳定的核心球员，过去几年都不是靠着自由市场的补强来建军。有些 人看到其他队拼命补强的样子会感到失望，但是很多人依然不明白这就是雷霆的方针─他 们避免到从市场找寻建构阵容的方式。 Look at Sam Presti’s free agency history in terms of new signings: Presti在过去几年补进的阵容： Signed C.J. Miles to an offer sheet, Utah matched (2008) Signed Nenad Krstic, in December, mind you (2008) Signed Kevin Ollie (2009) Signed Royal Ivey (2010) Signed Derek Fisher (2012) Signed Derek Fisher (2013) The Thunder have drafted, cultivated and developed their players, spending virtually their entire budget on locking up players produced in house. It’s always been the plan since Presti took over. Draft, develop and sustain. 选进、栽培、养成、花所有的预算留住他们。这就是Presti要的三步骤─选秀、养成、 留下来。 What that means is the money the team has is almost exclusively used to re-sign those players. If you feel like griping because the Thunder never sign anyone, don’t forget they’ve shelled out two max deals, a large extension to Serge Ibaka and contracts for Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison. The Thunder spend; they just spend it on players they already have. 雷霆的钱几乎用在跟球员「续签」上面。如果你想抱怨雷霆不花钱补强，别忘了他们花掉 两张顶级合约、Ibaka的大合约以及Perkins、Thabo和Collison三位球员的薪水。他们把钱 花在持有的球员上。 So as free agency begins today, a few days after what some perceived as a disappointing draft, questions about possible solutions and help are circling. What can the Thunder realistically do in free agency? 在有些人认为是令人失望的选秀会的几日後，FA开市了。关於解答和补强的问题也浮出来 了─雷霆到底能干嘛？ What is the Thunder’s current salary situation? 2013-14 committed salary: $67,461,070, not including three non-guaranteed contracts (Hasheem Thabeet, DeAndre Liggins, Daniel Orton); if you include them, it’s $70,462,170. 2013-14已付合约─$67.4M($67,461,070)，三位non-guaranteed(Thabeet、Liggins和 Orton)，三位都加上去的话是$70.4M($70,462,170)。 Relevant, important note: The luxury tax is expected to be set at about $71.6 million next season. 更重要的是，明年的税线大概会落在$71.6M。 Assuming the Thunder sign their two first round picks, they’ll have 14 players under contract for next season, leaving one spot open. 如果雷霆签下今年选秀会中得到的前两位球员，他们总共会有14人，剩下一个位置。 What kind of money can the Thunder spend? Because the Thunder are over the salary cap, they only have two ways to sign a free agent. The first is through the mid-level exception and here’s how that works: Teams that did not pay the tax the previous season are eligible for the full MLE (about $5 million a year for four years) while teams that paid the tax get the mini-mid-level (about $3 million a year for three years). The Thunder can use the full mid-level, but it of course would make them a taxpayer next season. 因为雷霆超出门槛，他们只有两种签下FA的方式。其一：中产条款。前一季没有付奢侈税 的球队可以使用全额中产条款(一年$5M、四年)；反之则得以使用迷你中产(一年$3M、三 年)。雷霆可以用全额中产，只是这样明年薪资就爆了。 The other way OKC can sign free agents is through the minimum salary exception. You sign a player to the veteran minimum (salary is based on a scale of years played) for a maximum of two years. 另一种方式最低薪资条款。veteran minimum、最多两年。 (There’s a third way, but it only applies to Kevin Martin, who has Bird Rights, which is an exception where teams can re-sign their own players while exceeding the cap, as long as the player hasn’t switched teams as a free agent in the previous three seasons.) (其实还有第三种方式─鸟权，但是只适用於Kevin Martin。雷霆就算超出上限也能重签 上季原有球员。) So let’s say the Thunder splurge and use the mid-level to sign J.J. Redick for $5 million a year. That would put their total payroll at $75,462,170, which is $3,862,170 above the tax line. What’s important about that number is that in order to use the full non-taxpayer MLE, you have to be below the luxury tax “apron,” even after you use the exception, which is set at $4 million above the tax line. So it works. That contract would put the Thunder in the lowest tax bracket, and would have them paying $1.50 for every dollar they’re over, which is a $5,793,255 tax bill. Essentially, Redick becomes an $10.7 million a year player. (Of course, those numbers are different if the Thunder waive those non-guaranteed players. They’d still break over the tax, but just slightly — about $900,000 or so.) 假设雷霆开心洒钱，用中产条款($5M/y)签下J.J. Redick，薪资将会达到$75,462,170， 超过税限共$3,862,170。重要的是奢侈税「硬上限」是超出$4M，所以勉强过关。雷霆支 付的税金是每超过$1就要付$1.5。就本质来说，Redick变成一位每年$10.7M的球员。(当 然，如果雷霆丢掉那三位non-guaranteed球员的话，超出的总量会减少很多，大约$900K 。) Sam Presti has never said the organization is philosophically opposed to paying the tax, but it certainly doesn’t seem like they’re that interested in it. At least not in a situation like this. The Thunder were willing to head into tax territory with James Harden, but Presti recently labeled that a special circumstance. Presti不曾说过雷霆死不付奢侈税，不过不难看出他们不想这麽做─至少不是这种花法。 雷霆愿意因为留下Harden而花奢侈税，不过最近Presti表示那是「特殊状况」。 (Note: Had Harden accepted the four-year, $55 million offer from the Thunder, OKC’s total payroll would’ve been about $78.5 million next season, assuming they only carried 13 players, forcing them to pay about $12.25 million into the luxury tax. And it was only going to get worse.) (注：假设雷霆接受四年$55M的合约，雷霆下一季的薪资将会达到$78.5M，假设他们只留 13位球员，他们得花费$12.5M奢侈税─而且只会越来越糟。) I think in the right situation, the Thunder would break into the tax. If they loved Redick — I’m using him as the example because I do love Redick — and saw him as a potential missing piece, they might just bite the bullet and take on the tax hit and maybe try and shop some players for picks, or waive the non-guaranteed guys. Some act as if the tax line is a hard cap. It’s scary, it’s ugly, it’s bad. But teams are paying the tax — hello, Brooklyn — and while most are hesitant to go deep into it, just dipping a toe isn’t so bad. The Spurs have paid the tax, granted the previous, less punitive one, but they have paid it. 恰到好处的情况下雷霆会愿意付出奢侈税。如果他们对Redick情有独锺(我提Redick的原 因是我喜欢Redick)，视他为雷霆缺少的那块拼图，那雷霆可以乖乖付税金、或许拿球员 换选秀权、释出non-guaranteed球员等等。有些人将税线视为硬性上限，但是有些球队付 钱付很爽(篮网)，而有不少球队对於超出很多薪资的方法抱持迟疑态度。马刺不也付了一 丁点。 So why don’t they just amnesty Perk, right? All of this is one big reason why amnestying Kendrick Perkins made zero sense whatsoever. The general thinking by many was, amnesty Perk, use that $9 million in new cap space to go sign a new free agent big man. Well, wiping Perk’s contract off the books still wouldn’t put OKC under the cap meaning the only money they could spend on a free agent replacement would be the mid-level exception. And who are they going to get for that? Not Al Jefferson, not Nikola Pekovic, not likely anyone all that good. 特赦Perk毫无道理可言。很多人误以为特赦他可以用腾出来的$9M去买自由球员，但是雷 霆薪资表上涂掉的Perk合约并不能让雷霆的薪资低於税线，所以他们还是只能使用中产 条款签人。Al Jefferson？Nikola Pekovic？不可能。不可能签到那麽好的。 A big addendum: The way to sort of skirt around this for teams is by using a sign-and-trade. However, in the new collective bargaining agreement, teams cannot be above that pesky tax apron — $4 million over the threshold — after the trade is completed. (This was a huge point of contention during the lockout two years ago.) So in the Thunder’s case, they could really only sign-and-trade a player worth about the MLE anyway. Let’s say the Thunder used the amnesty on Perk trimming $9 million, with a sign-and-trade the Thunder could spend up to around $15 million on a replacement. Sounds all well and good, except since the Thunder are over the cap, they’ve got to match up salaries on a deal, meaning good players would have to be traded to another team to complete it. Which really doesn’t make any sense. 重要的附录：似乎可以用先签後换？不过根据新版CBA，球队在交易完成後不能超过硬上 限($4M)，这也是当年风管时的一大争论点。以雷霆的情况来看，他们只能换来一位中产 等级的球员，所以我们特赦Perk的$9M，可以能来换一位$15M的球员。听起来不错，但是 因为雷霆超出税线，所以他们必须让薪资对等─所以他们必须把好球员交易走。所以毫无 道理可言。 Will/can they re-sign Kevin Martin? Sure they can. There are two ways it could happen: 1) Martin decides he has unfinished business in OKC and wants one more run at a championship. He agrees to a mega-discounted deal of one-year, $3.5 million which barely scratches the luxury tax and does minimal financial damage or 2) the Thunder decide Martin is worth dipping a deeper toe into the luxury tax and give him the three years, $21 million he’s likely looking for. 可以啊，1) Martin佛心大发，想要跟雷霆合作再拼冠军戒。小小的佛心就好，一年$3.5M 大概就能让雷霆只需要付一点点税金而不会遭受钜额损失。2) 雷霆佛心大发，给Martin 想要的三年$21M。 A person close to the Martin talks says the chances of him return are “very unlikely.” With serious interest surrounding him throughout the league, there ’s just little to no way the Thunder are going to put together a competitive offer to match the Pistons, Hawks, Mavericks, Pelicans or whoever. 一位亲近Martin的人士表示Martin留下来的机会「微乎其微」。因为很多球队对Martin有 十足的兴趣，雷霆绝对拼不过活塞、老鹰、小牛、鹈鹕之类的球队。 Is using the mid-level exception actually a realistic possibility? Look at it this way: Thabo Sefolosha is about to turn 30 and will be on an expiring deal this season. While the Thunder have another shooting guard ready and waiting in Jeremy Lamb, and a possible future Thabo in DeAndre Liggins, the depth at 2-guard could be thin in the future. Thabo将满30岁，这一结束後约就满了。虽然雷霆有未来SG Jeremy Lamb和或许能成为下 一个Thabo的Liggins，未来的SG大概仍会成为较为薄弱的位置。 With Thabo’s $3.9 million coming off the books next season, there’s a chance the Thunder could bit the tax bullet for one season to add a little depth, let Thabo expire and have the new player for the next few years. Thabo这一季的薪资是$3.9M，所以雷霆大概能咬紧牙关撑一季来增加深度，再约满之後找 寻新球员来撑接下来的几年。 Complications: The Thunder probably would like to be able to re-sign Reggie Jackson in the coming years, so every penny saved now goes towards aiding that, and there’s also the issue of Durant and Westbrook’s deals have percentage raises each season. So Durant and Westbrook are actually going to make about a million more in 2014-15 than they did this season, and more than that the year after. Perk’s $9.6 million comes off the books then, so that helps, which is why having a possible contributor like Steven Adams on a rookie contract would be so important. 复杂的地方：或许雷霆会希望能够续签Reggie Jackson，所以省下来的每一分钱都能帮助 达成这个约的可能性。KD跟Russ的合约再2014-15会多出$1M，再下一季又会多一些；Perk 的$9.6M会跑完─这有不小的帮助─这也是为什麽找一个那时还是新秀约的Steven Adams 是非常重要的一步。 So in conclusions, the likely scenario: Nothing happens, Thabo is re-signed next season. 结论是我们很有机会看到：什麽事都没发生，Thabo下季续签。 What are some options for the Thunder? I don’t see the Thunder actually splurging — though it does feel a little dicey to really be relying on Jeremy Lamb this much — so if there’s a player to be signed, it’ll likely come at the veteran minimum. The Thunder could sign one vet and pretty much still avoid the tax. A couple candidates would be Stephen Jackson, Francisco Garcia, Derek Fisher (gasp), Ronnie Brewer, Martell Webster (wishful thinking), Terence Williams, Xavier Henry, Alan Anderson, Sam Young, Tracy McGrady and Willie Green. 我看不出雷霆洒钱的可能性─虽然倚赖Lamb是有点冒险的举动─但是真的签人的话不外乎 是老将底薪，雷霆能签一人然後避免付税金。我们可以找Stephen Jackson、Francisco Garcia、Derek Fisher(倒抽一口气)、Ronnie Brewer、Martell Webster(乐观想法)、 Terence Williams、Xavier Henry、Alan Anderson、Sam Young、Tracy McGrady或 Willie Green。 Some of those players might get an offer better than the minimum, but it’s hard to really know right now. There is a feeling within the team more veterans are needed, though. And while the Thunder can’t really open up the checkbook and go get a big name free agent, a guy like Jackson — while damaged goods — is a playoff tested vet that would have the support of a lot of Thunder players. He’s friends with Perk, he’s tight with KD. There was that whole Serg Abaka thing, but I’m sure bygones could be teammates. 以上那些人当中会有一些人拿到更好的约，现在很难断言状况如何。现在有种雷霆比较需 要老将的氛围。雷霆现在没有能力负担一位名气响当当的大咖FA。Stephen Jackson─虽 然会造成一点破坏─但是他是经过无数季後赛洗礼的匠，可以支持雷霆球员。他是Perk的 好朋友，跟KD很亲近，虽然有Serg Abaka事件，不过我相信他们还是能成为队友。 What are the Thunder probably going to do? Nothing. Deal with it. 什麽都没有，面对事实吧。 The Thunder will probably hold on to the open roster spot, stay under the tax and press on with the existing team, one that if I may remind you, is already pretty damn good. 雷霆或许会留下这个空位、待在税线底下，用这个阵容打球─容我提醒你─已经是个很棒 的阵容。 -- "HARD WORK BEATS TALENT WHEN TALENT FAILS TO WORK HARD." --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.117.20.246 ※ 编辑: tanaka0826 来自: 122.117.20.246 (07/03 02:49) 感谢~ ※ 编辑: tanaka0826 来自: 122.117.20.246 (07/03 12:08)