这篇也是预测我们选Bayless。 How will lottery teams pick? by: Fran Fraschilla posted: Wednesday, May 21, 2008 | Print Entry I love this time of year because I get to watch tape in anticipation of the NBA draft. It's a great hobby after a long college season. And, unlike a lot of NBA GMs and personnel people, nobody cares if I'm wrong. One thing I have learned through the years is that, while I try to factor in all of the information I can collect from my NBA scouting and college coaching friends, it's always best for me to let my own eyes do the evaluating for me. I trust them more. So, now that the order of the NBA draft lottery has been determined, here's my early handicapping of which way teams will go. 1. Chicago Bulls: Michael Beasley, Kansas State There will be some pressure on the Bulls to take the hometown hero, Derrick Rose, but with a core of good, young perimeter players, Beasley gives this team an anchor inside for the next decade. He'll score and rebound right away and has a better feel for team basketball than people realize. He will turn into a 20-10 guy fairly quickly. 2. Miami Heat: Derrick Rose, Memphis What would have been an excruciating decision for Pat Riley if the Heat gained the No.1 selection, now is a no brainer. Rose will struggle early, especially when teams back off his jump shot, but ultimately he will combine with a healthy Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion and put the Heat back into the Eastern Conference playoff mix immediately. 3. Minnesota Timberwolves: O.J. Mayo USC I am not one who thinks that Jerryd Bayless will make the immediate adjustment to the NBA point guard, although he's got the great athleticism to do it. Mayo upgrades the shooting guard position. With Al Jefferson about to become a superstar, the road to recovery for the Timberwolves begins. 4. Seattle Sonics: Jerryd Bayless, Arizona If the Sonics are confident Bayless can grow into the point guard position quickly, he gives them the type of speed and athleticism that P.J. Carlesimo saw out of Tony Parker when Carlesimo was a Spurs' assistant. The young front line of Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Chris Wilcox is solid, but Bayless' scoring ability will take some heat off them. 5. Memphis Grizzlies: Brook Lopez, Stanford The Grizzlies' leading rebounder this season was a shooting guard, Mike Miller. With Pau Gasol gone, Memphis needs to upgrade its frontline, and Lopez is a start. I love this guy because he's got size, skill and some "nasty" in him. He'll dive after loose balls and has more offensive weapons than people think. 6. New York Knicks: Danilo Gallinari, Italy I have watched this guy since he was 16, and I promise that Gallinari would have been the talk of college basketball this season if he were an American. The 19-year-old small forward can handle like a guard, can shoot it, isn't afraid to attack the rim and is already a high-level European player. There may be some karma here because his father was a teammate of new Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni on a number of Italian championship teams. 7. Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon, Indiana On January 1, a number of teams had Gordon pegged in the top three picks, but injuries and the Indiana controversy may have changed some opinions. The bottom line is that he is not a pure point guard and not big enough to be a traditional shooting guard. However, he has an offensive arsenal and, as importantly, a relentless motor. 8. Milwaukee Bucks: Anthony Randolph, LSU This is a tough one because the Bucks could use some help in the backcourt, but Randolph is too good to pass up here. He's the first guy in the draft that will not be instantly ready to play but has as much long-range potential as anyone this year. At 6-foot-9, he is a great athlete with outstanding ball skills. He is an improved jumper and a mature physique away from being an all-star. 9. Charlotte Bobcats: Darrell Arthur, Kansas I am a Darrell Arthur fan. He runs the court as well as any big man in college basketball. He's got an excellent low-post package and a reasonably good perimeter jumper. Like all of Kansas' top seven, he checked his ego at the door and only played 25 minutes a game for the national champs. With added strength, he's a young Horace Grant. 10. New Jersey Nets: Kevin Love, UCLA The Nets need to keep adding pieces to their rebuilding plan, and while Love is not the perfect fit, he is a tough, fundamentally sound player. Rebounding won't be an issue, and he fits in a pick-and-pop game because of his outside shooting. But scoring over length will be an issue. 11. Indiana Pacers: D.J. Augustin, Texas It's time for the Pacers to break from the past and move Jamaal Tinsley. Augustin may be the second-best point guard in this draft. He's got everything but size, and his character is off the charts. Larry Bird won't solve all of his problems with this pick, but he'll get a young guard who knows the game. 12. Sacramento Kings: Russell Westbrook, UCLA Westbrook will drop because of concerns about his inconsistent jump shot, but he is NBA-ready on the defensive end and the UCLA coaches swear by his work ethic. A late bloomer coming out of high school, Westbrook's athleticism will get him by until his offensive game catches up. 13. Portland Trail Blazers: Chase Budinger, Arizona I confess to not being big on Budinger this year until I watched a lot of tape of him after the season. He is an excellent athlete with a very quick release on a reasonably accurate jump shot. His weakness is that he is the proverbial "one-armed bandit," always going to his right. The Blazers may go in a different direction, however, if they can get Spanish star and former first-round pick, Rudy Fernandez, to come over next year. 14. Golden State Warriors: Nathan Jawai, Australia I want to like Joe Alexander here, but after studying his game, I wonder is he going to guard an NBA power forward or small forward? So, I'll go wild card here and take a flier on a 6-10 power forward who nobody knew a year ago. The 270-pound Jawai is light on his feet, has a quick jumper and has a good touch for a big man. Mayo thoughts I go back and forth on the one-and-done rule all the time. On the one hand, getting a chance to go directly from high school to the NBA for a talented player should be the American way. And, so should failing miserably like Kwame Brown and Darius Miles, as well. On the other hand, there's no question that the NCAA and NBA both profit from the free farm system set up by the new rule. The NCAA markets players like Durant and Beasley, while the NBA gets to evaluate these players for another year, reducing some of the risk in selecting on long-term potential. The bottom line is that I think the rule should be rescinded. Last year, I wrote in a column that most of the top 50 high school recruits are, in fact, professionals. When one adds up the cash, the free trips, the free basketball equipment and sneakers that top high school recruits accrue, the average fan would be stunned. It's time to go back and let them sink or swim right away at the NBA level and eliminate the charade that they are really college students. Guys like Mayo have no business being in college if they can get to the NBA right out of high school. Whether it's the agents and their runners or the shoe companies (through summer-league coaches) subsidizing the players, guys like Mayo make the NCAA look bad. Nobody I know in basketball was surprised by the recent allegations about Mayo accepting gifts and money from someone associated with an agent. When one-time NCAA offender, Rodney Guillory, walked into Tim Floyd's office at USC last year to, essentially, deliver the prized recruit, there were more red flags raised than at a reunion of Russian KGB agents. If college basketball survived without Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant passing though, it can survive not seeing Kevin Love or Michael Beasley in a college uniform with a shoe company logo on it. --

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