http://tinyurl.com/yg24xab Box-office preview: Can 'New Moon' cross $100 million? 新月会三天破亿吗？ by Nicole Sperling Categories: Box Office, Film, Movie Biz, New Moon, Twilight Preordained success is a tricky thing. Anything less than perfect and your movie is considered a disappointment. Lucky for Summit Entertainment and the filmmakers behind New Moon, teenage girls have got their back. At this point only a natural catastrophe (and I’m not talking 2012) could derail the second installment of Twilight from being a major box-office hit. Movie websites are reporting record sales. Teenagers are already lined up for midnight showings. And there is a good possibility this film could gross in the $100 million range, putting it on par with such juggernauts as Iron Man, Indiana Jones and Harry Potter. Not bad for a $50 million movie about teenagers and vampires. 有不少电影被看好会大卖，结果却变成失望的观影经验。 不过Summit娱乐公司与「新月」的剧组就相对幸运多了，因为年轻女孩们都知道 故事会怎麽发展，现在大概只有天然灾难（我不是指2012）会严重影响暮光之城 第二集的票房，因为现在各大娱乐网站都已经报导本片的预售票销售已经创下影史 新高。年轻人已经排队等着去看午夜场，让本片在第一周就有可能创下1亿美金的票房， 与钢铁人、印第安那琼斯与哈利波特共享这个成就，对於这部制作成本的5千万美金的 YA吸血鬼电影来说绝对是个好成绩 But this is one crowded weekend at the box office — Hollywood wasn’t willing to let Summit have all the glory. Some crafty counter-programming includes kid flick Planet 51 and the Sandra Bullock football drama The Blind Side, which is appealing to male audiences. Read on for my predictions. 但本周电影院的竞争还是相当激烈，因为好莱坞的其他片商可不想让Summit公司 独享这个周末的所有光环，一些狡猾的逆向操作也将在本周上映，包括针对小孩的 动画片「51号星球」，与珊卓布拉克主演，目标锁定男性观众的足球剧情片「攻其 不备」 The Twilight Saga: New Moon: $105 million Yes, it’s a ridiculously high number and let me preface it with saying that even if New Moon grosses $85 million, it’s a hit. But the reason Twilight was such a phenomenon was because teenage girls saw the movie 6 and 7 times opening weekend. You don’t get that kind of repeat business at a free buffet. These people are obsessed. The only thing New Moon has going against it is its two-hour run time. And while Summit talked a good game about expanding the audience of the film to lure in boys, all Taylor Lautner’s abs have done is raise the screaming girl power in the theater. I’m doubtful boys are going to show up to watch him turn into a werewolf, despite the sequel’s improved special effects. For comparison, Twilight opened to $69.6 million on 3,419 theaters. The sequel is going to be in over 4,000 locations. 1.暮光之城：新月－1亿5百万美金 是的，这预测是很夸张的高，所以我必须先说：即使新月最後票房只有8千5百万， 他仍然是一次成功的大热卖！不过暮光去年之所以造成全美狂热现象，是因为 有不少女生在首周末就看了6-7次，所以你不能把这种重复的观影比率当作天上 掉下来的礼物，尽管他们的确够着迷！新月能够有超高票房的唯一理由，在於 他刚好两小时的片长。 尽管这次Summit公司杨扬自喜的谈论这回他们如何吸引更多男生入场， 但是所有泰勒罗特纳（雅各）出现的镜头只是让女生的尖叫分贝指数更为大声而已， 我反而怀疑男孩们会愿意买票看雅各变身狼人，虽然这回特效的确更为精致。 顺道一提：去年暮光1在不到3千5百家戏院的情况下开出了将近7千万的票房， 而今年新月则至少会有4千家戏院上映 2012: $26 million Roland Emmerich has a huge worldwide hit on his hands. And while he might not be the most eloquent of filmmakers his ability to destroy is top-notch. This film is full of massive spectacle best seen in the theater. So while it’s going to get smacked around this weekend by New Moon, a 60% drop will still give it a solid $26 million take for its second weekend. 2.2012－2千6百万美金 罗兰爱莫瑞奇的新片在全球都获得了票房成功，也许老罗并不是叙事功力最好的导演， 但他在灾难片的成就还是值得让人尊敬。本片有许多值得在戏院观赏的壮观场面， 所以本周票房虽然会受到新月冲击而大跌6成，但还是可以将收入保持在2千5百万 The Blind Side: $19 million Warner Bros. has been selling this “based on a true story” to football fans across the country and surprisingly, it seems to be working. How high those male moviegoers take the movie will be a wait-and-see game but The Blind Side might just surprise. 3.攻其不备－1千9百万美金 华纳兄弟最近正在向全美的美式足球迷，密集宣传这部根据真人实事改编的电影， 神奇的是，成果看起来还不错。会有多少男性影迷买票入场固然是本周的观战重点 之一，不过攻片可望开出比想像中更好的票房 Disney’s A Christmas Carol: $18 million With a 25% drop last weekend, A Christmas Carol positioned itself for a long box-office run. Perhaps releasing the film so early wasn’t such a bad decision after all. The Jim Carrey-starrer has received positive reviews and will be the holiday movie of choice likely into December. Expect another small drop-off this frame and a solid battle with The Blind Side for third place. 4.圣诞夜怪谈－1千8百万美金 随着上周只有25%的跌幅，圣片证明本片将会是一部长卖电影， 也证明本片这麽早就上映并不是个错误决定。这部由金凯瑞主演的动画片 获得了不错的影评，而且还会是12月假期档的其中一部应景电影，所以本片 在本周仍然能够维持小跌幅，甚至与攻其不备争夺季军 Planet 51: $11 million This is no Pixar film but with a cute concept (humans invade another planet) and charming green creatures it’s certainly appealing to the under-8 set. Still with so much out there, it will be a real feat if Planet 51 crosses the $10 million mark. 5.51号星球－1千1百万美金 本片不是皮克斯出品，但故事设定（人类入侵另一个星球）与片中的绿色怪物 都相当迷人可爱，势必可以吸引8岁以下的小孩。不过在其他影片夹击之下， 本片能开出破千万的票房就算成功了！ Keep in mind, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire is set to expand to 629 theaters. Even if the film’s per-screen average from last week drops 50%, which is more than likely considering the film’s expansion, it’s still on track to earn over $10 million. That could mean that this indie film could reach an astounding $15 million in three weeks of limited release. 也不要忘记「珍爱人生」将会增听至629家戏院，虽然本片的平均戏院收入 将会下跌一半，但他仍然有望在本周吸取超过1千万的票房，换句话说这部独立制片 也即将在有限的戏院中达到三周1千5百万的惊人票房纪录 -- / \ NY 　Ｂ LA 鸟 Ｓ NY ρ TB 口 / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ Ｖ　 口 口 口 口 口 口 口 口 囧总统 囧-Rod 囧提兹 囧米瑞兹 囧霍兹 铃木一囧 囧尔川 囧恩霍华 囧格利亚 英囧 --

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