文章标题 请使用 原新闻标题 勿删减或自创标题，违者4-1处分 原文标题： 请勿删减或自创标题，违者4-1处分，此行请删除 Fed leaves rates unchanged; three policymakers dissent in favor of a hike 联准会维持利率不变 3名官员主张升息一码 原文连结： 网址超过一行，请用缩网址，连结不能点击者板规 1-2-2 处分。 https://reurl.cc/QNjldO 发布时间： 请勿张贴超过3天新闻 July 29, 20266:04 PM GMT+8Updated 5 mins ago 2026年7月29日下午6:04 GMT+8 5分钟前更新 记者署名： 路透社新闻 By Ann Saphir and Michael S. Derby 原文内容： Summary US central bank leaves policy rate in 3.50%-3.75% range Three Fed bank presidents wanted a quarter-percentage-point hike Markets had priced about a one-in-three chance of a rate increase WASHINGTON, July 29 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, a choice that may intensify questions about how U.S. central bank chief Kevin Warsh will deliver on his commitment to bring inflation back down to the 2% target. The widely expected decision to leave he benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range drew dissents from three of the 12 members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee who "preferred" a quarter-percentage-point hike at this meeting. Those same three, the presidents of the Fed's Cleveland, Dallas and Minneapolis regional banks, had also dissented at Jerome Powell's final meeting as central bank chief in late April, that time in favor of removing the implied promise of lower ates. Warsh, who took over as head of the Fed in May, has said he has "no tolerance" for inflation that has been running above the central bank's target or more than five years, and up until last month was accelerating as the war in the Middle East pushed up global uel and food prices, and investment in data centers and other spending tied to artificial intelligence drove up demand."Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2% goal," the Fed said in a short policy statement after the end of its latest two-day meeting. It replicated word for word all of the June 17 statement's assessment of the economy. The Fed said conomic activity is "expanding at a solid pace," noting, as it did in June, that job gains "have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little." Warsh said in a press conference following the FOMC announcement that "we've begun a new chapter and we understand that the five-plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in nine weeks, or by a single month of modest price decreases. This ed will not waver" on getting inflation back to the 2% target. While he declined to say what's next for monetary policy, Warsh said "I want to stress, of course, that ecisions by this committee matter a great deal, and where necessary and appropriate, we will not hesitate to act." U.S. stocks pared losses after the release of the statement while yields on U.S. Treasuries ared gains. The ollar fell against a basket of currencies. "At this stage, I think we should expect the FOMC to hike rates by 25 basis points in September unless the labor market data collapses, or core inflation prints closer to 2% annualized, which I do not expect in the July or August readings before the September FOMC," said Omair Sharif, founder and president of forecasting firm Inflation Insights. The number of officials voting in favor of tighter policy suggests a change in Fed thinking, even though some analysts think the central bank can still hold ff on hikes. “The high number of dissents underscore hat policymakers are increasingly more hawkish,” aid Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, in a note. But she nevertheless thinks that “the Fed can and should remain on hold this year since higher interest rates will not solve the energy supply shock from the Middle East nor slow AI capex that is driving p prices.” In leaving the policy rate pinned in the range it has been since December, Fed policymakers are embracing the idea that urrent borrowing costs are creating enough friction in the economy to reduce any inflation that isn't, like the effect of tariffs on goods prices, expected to fade on its own. Warsh has said little about the mix of risks and nothing about the outlook for the policy rate, though he has expressed the expectation that rising productivity aided by AI will allow the economy to grow faster without also pushing up nflation. Financial markets ahead of this week's meeting had priced in about a one-in-three chance of a rate hike nd, absent such a move at this week's meeting, nearly a 100% chance of an increase in September. By then, Fed policymakers will have in hand two more monthly readings on inflation and the jobs market, giving hem a better picture of whether the cooling price pressures evident last month have continued. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Additional reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci 摘要 美国央行将政策利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间 三位联准银行总裁主张升息0.25个百分点 市场原先已反映约三分之一的升息机率 华盛顿，7月29日（路透社）——美国联准会周三维持利率不变，这项决定可能会加深外 界的疑问：美国央行主席凯文·华许将如何履行承诺，把通膨重新压回2%的目标。 这项普遍符合预期的决定，让基准利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间，但在负责制定政策的 联邦公开市场委员会12名成员中，有三人投下反对票，表示他们在本次会议中「倾向」升 息0.25个百分点。 这三人分别是克里夫兰、达拉斯与明尼亚波利斯地区联准银行的总裁。他们在4月底杰洛 姆·鲍尔以央行主席身分主持的最後一次会议中，也曾投下反对票；当时他们主张删除声 明中隐含未来将降息的承诺。 华许於5月接任联准会主席。他曾表示，对於通膨没有任何「容忍空间」。通膨已经连续 五年多高於央行目标，而且直到上个月都还在加速上升，原因包括中东战争推高全球燃料 与食品价格，以及资料中心投资和其他与人工智慧相关的支出带动需求上升。 联准会在结束最新一场为期两天的会议後，於一份简短的政策声明中表示： 「相较於委员会2%的目标，通膨仍然偏高。」 这份声明对经济情势的评估，逐字沿用了6月17日声明的全部内容。 联准会表示，经济活动正「以稳健的速度扩张」。声明也和6月时一样指出，就业增加「 与劳动力成长速度保持一致，失业率则变化不大」。 华许在FOMC公布决议後举行的记者会上表示： 「我们已经开启了一个新的篇章。我们明白，超过五年的通膨高於目标，不可能在九周内 治癒，也不可能靠单一月份的物价温和下降就解决。这一届联准会不会动摇」，将坚持让 通膨回到2%的目标。 虽然华许拒绝说明货币政策下一步将如何调整，但他表示： 「我当然要强调，本委员会所作出的决定影响非常重大；在必要且适当的情况下，我们将 毫不犹豫地采取行动。」 声明发布後，美国股市收敛跌幅，美国公债殖利率也收敛涨幅。美元兑一篮子货币下跌。 预测机构Inflation Insights创办人兼总裁Omair Sharif表示： 「现阶段，我认为除非劳动市场数据崩跌，或者核心通膨数据降至接近年化2%的水准，否 则我们应该预期FOMC会在9月升息25个基点。我不认为在9月FOMC会议前公布的7月或8月数 据中，会出现这两种情况。」 支持紧缩政策的官员人数，显示联准会内部的想法可能正在改变，尽管部分分析师仍认为 ，央行可以继续暂缓升息。 Nationwide首席经济学家Kathy Bostjancic在一份报告中表示： 「大量的反对票凸显出，政策制定官员正变得愈来愈鹰派。」 不过，她仍认为： 「联准会今年可以、也应该继续维持利率不变，因为更高的利率无法解决来自中东的能源 供应冲击，也无法减缓正在推高价格的人工智慧资本支出。」 联准会决定让政策利率继续维持在去年12月以来的区间，显示联准会政策制定官员认同， 目前的借贷成本已经对经济形成足够的阻力，能够压低那些不会自行消退的通膨压力；至 於关税对商品价格造成的影响，则被预期会自行逐渐消退。 华许很少谈及各项风险之间的权衡，也完全没有说明政策利率的未来走向。不过，他曾表 示，人工智慧带动的生产力提升，预计能让经济以更快速度成长，同时不会进一步推高通 膨。 在本周会议召开前，金融市场原先已反映约三分之一的升息机率；若本周会议没有升息， 市场则几乎百分之百预期联准会将在9月升息。 到了9月，联准会政策制定官员将再取得两个月份的通膨与就业市场数据，让他们能更清 楚判断，上个月所呈现的物价压力降温现象是否持续。 Ann Saphir报导；Michael S. Derby补充报导；Paul Simao与Andrea Ricci编辑 心得/评论： 不止美国收敛，刚刚夜盘一度上涨2%多，等等看明天开盘 个人感觉还没跌够，因为美股大盘SPX没有跌多少 还有修正空间，台股就跌比较重，但也没跌到20%进入熊市 整体还是跌1X%而已，个股比较惨 股神刚刚讲了句: Will hit them hard, it's our turn to. 美股马上就下来 -- https://i.imgur.com/Kc4llBM.jpeg --

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