伊朗战争考验唐纳·川普对石油市场「痛苦」的容忍度 美国总统似乎会根据原油价格的波动，突然转向政策立场 找出下一个「Taco」时刻何时到来，已成为华尔街最新的痴迷点。 投资者正试图寻找触发唐纳·川普（Donald Trump）对伊朗战争政策转向的「痛苦临界点 」，因为这位美国总统在社交媒体上的发言引发了石油市场的剧烈波动。 自川普发动中东战争以来，他倾向於在石油市场关闭的周末加强对伊朗政权的威胁，并在 油价上涨时暗示和平即将到来。 这些讯息是其政府平抑汽油价格通膨努力的一部分，此时距离期中选举仅剩几个月，生活 成本危机已成为选民关注的焦点。 这种模式凸显了石油市场对冲突进程的核心影响，以及白宫——至少到目前为止——在防 止原油价格失控方面的成功。 「很明显，（川普）害怕加油站的高油价……汽油价格超过 4 美元是政治自杀，」Onyx Capital Group 石油分析师 Jorge Montepeque 表示。「但天平的另一端是他的自尊心。 他不能被看作是输家。」 布兰特原油（Brent crude）在 3 月 9 日创下每桶 119 美元以上的高点，且在过去几周 剧烈震荡，期间伊朗对穿越荷莫兹海峡的船只及波斯湾各地的能源设施发动了袭击。 美国消费者和企业已开始感受到影响：汽油价格跳涨逾三分之一，接近每加仑 4 美元； 而工业的重要燃料——柴油，则已突破 5 美元。 一位资深能源交易员指出了一个清晰的模式：每当美国油价（目前交易价格比布兰特原油 低约 10 美元）接近每桶 95 至 100 美元时，政府的降温言论就会加强，市场对政府干 预石油市场的猜测也会随之升温。 他们表示，到目前为止，这种「口头干预」（jawboning）有助於压制价格。但他们也警 告，如果出现实际的物理性短缺，市场可能会大幅飙升。 「Taco」时刻 几位交易员认为，考量到伊朗战争造成的破坏规模，油价理应更高，但没多少人敢与川普 透过社交媒体和电视采访进行的干预对做，因为他们认为这些举动旨在打压价格。 「这些指控完全是错误的。川普总统对美国民众一直保持完全透明，这些只是暂时的短期 波动，他正专注於做正确的事——即消除伊朗恐怖政权对美国及其盟友的威胁，」白宫发 言人 Taylor Rogers 表示。 投资者对於川普反覆无常的政策制定早已习以为常。自去年此时他在关税问题上反反覆覆 ——当时的多次转向催生了「川普总是退缩」（Trump Always Chickens Out，简称 TACO ）一词。 但过去一周矛盾的讯息将川普的不可预测性推向了新高度。 自上周五以来，美国政府威胁要从战略石油储备（SPR）中释放数亿桶原油，向中东部署 了陆军第 82 空降师的精英伞兵，并威胁要「夷平」伊朗的发电厂——同时却又暗示与身 分不明的伊朗官员进行的和平谈判进展顺利。 「现在有太多竞争性的标题，有的预示战争升级，有的预示缓和，我们已经进入了虚构作 品的范畴，」纽约经纪商 Jones Trading 的 Mike O’Rourke 表示。 与此同时，由於油价上涨推高了通膨预期，迫使交易员承认联准会（Fed）今年可能不会 降息，美国借贷成本已升至近 12 个月来的最高水平。基准 10 年期公债殖利率（决定政 府借贷成本）本月迄今已上升约 0.4 个百分点，是 2024 年底以来表现最差的一个月。 找出下一个「Taco」时刻何时到来，已成为华尔街最新的痴迷点。德意志银行跨资产策略 主管 Maximilian Uleer 本周开发了一个「压力指数」，作为「美国政府即将发布言论或 进行战略调整的指标」。 该指数纳入了川普支持率的一个月变化、一年通膨预期、标普 500 指数的表现以及美国 国债殖利率。 「如果指数上升，美国政府进行战略调整的可能性就会增加，」Uleer 表示。「如果这四 个痛苦点都感到疼痛，调整的动力就会非常高。」该指数目前正处於川普重返总统职位以 来的最高点。 Amundi 投资学院院长 Monica Defend 表示，川普在第二任期内对国债殖利率变得「敏感 得多」。 「一旦（10 年期）公债接近 4.5%，政府就会变得非常紧张，通常那时他们就会采取行动 。作为投资者，你需要预见到这一点，」她说。 其他投资者则选择在混乱中观望，担心被川普在 Truth Social 上的下一篇发文搞得措手 不及。 「我们都在做同样的事——什麽都不做，」一家北美避险基金的投资长表示。「你不能放 空石油，因为它随时可能冲上 150 美元。或者，战争也可能在五分钟内结束。」 原文标题： Iran war tests Donald Trump’s tolerance for ‘pain’ in oil market US president appears to make abrupt policy pivots based on swings in crude prices 原文连结： https://www.ft.com/content/bc6037d6-d6cf-4117-9eb0-311956ea9dd1?syn-25a6b1a6=1 发布时间： Published5 hours ago 记者署名： George Steer in New York and Emily Herbert, Malcolm Moore and Jonathan Vincent in London 原文内容： Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://help.ft.com/faq/gifting-and-sharing-an-article/what-is-a-gift-article/. https://www.ft.com/content/bc6037d6-d6cf-4117-9eb0-311956ea9dd1?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Investors are hunting for the “pain point” that prompts Donald Trump to make policy pivots on his war in Iran as the US president’s social media posts ignite severe swings in the oil market. Since Trump launched the war in the Middle East, he has tended to intensify his threats against the Iranian regime over weekends, when oil markets are closed, and hint at impending peace when prices are rising. The messages are part of his administration’s efforts to tamp down petrol price inflation just months ahead of midterm elections when an affordability crisis will be on voters’ agenda. The pattern underscores the centrality of oil markets to the course of the conflict, along with the White House’s success — at least so far — in preventing crude prices from spiralling out of control. “It is clear that [Trump] is fearful of high prices at the pumpGasoline over $4 is a political killer,” said Jorge Montepeque, oil analyst at Onyx Capital Group. “On the other side of the ledger is his ego. He can’ t be seen to have lost.” Brent crude hit a high above $119 a barrel on March 9 and has gyrated violently over the past few weeks as Iran has launched strikes against ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz and energy facilities across the Gulf. US consumers and businesses are beginning to feel the effects: petrol prices have jumped more than a third to almost $4 a gallon, while diesel — a vital fuel for industry — has exceeded $5. One senior energy trader pointed to what they saw as a clear pattern: whenever US oil prices — currently trading around $10 below Brent — approached $95 to $100 a barrel, the administration’s de-escalatory rhetoric intensified and market speculation about potential government intervention in the oil market grew louder. So far, they said, such “jawboning” had helped cap prices. But they also warned that the market could break sharply higher if physical shortages began to emerge. Several traders said they believed oil prices should be higher given the scale of disruption the Iran war has caused, but that there were not many people brave enough to trade against Trump’s interventions via social media posts and television interviews that they view as designed to knock down prices. “These claims are totally false. President Trump has been completely transparent with Americans about these temporary, short-term disruptions and he is focused on doing the right thing — which is eliminating the Iranian terroristegime’s threato America and our allies,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. Investors have grown used to Trump’s capricious policymaking since his toing and froing on tariffs this time last year — when his numerous U-turns spawned the phrase “Trump Always Chickens Out”. But the past week of conflicting messaging has taken Trump’s unpredictability to new heights. Since Friday, the US administration has threatened to release hundreds of millions of barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, deployed elite paratroopers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East and threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants — all while suggesting that peace negotiations with unidentified Iranian officials are progressing well. “There are now so many competing headlines signalling intensification versus de-escalation of the war in Iran, we have crossed over into fiction,” said Mike O’Rourke at New York-based broker Jones Trading. US borrowing costs have meanwhile risen to their highest level in nearly 12 months as costlier oil drives up inflation expectations and forces traders to concede that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates this year. The benchmark 10-year yield, which sets government borrowing costs, has risen by roughly 0.4 percentage points so far this month, its worst performance since late 2024. Figuring out when the next “Taco” moment will arrive has become Wall Street ’s latest obsession. Deutsche Bank’s head of cross-asset strategy, Maximilian Uleer, this week developed a “pressure index” as a “proxy for upcoming rhetoric or strategic adjustments by the US administration”. The index factors in the one-month change in Trump’s approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, the performance of Wall Street’s S&P 500 and US Treasury yields. “If the index moves up, a probability of strategic adjustment by the US administration is more likely,” Uleer said. “If all four pain points hurt, the incentive to adjust is very high.” The index is currently near its highest level since Trump regained the presidency. Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute, said Trump had become “much more sensitive” to Treasury yields during his second term. “As soon as the [10-year] Treasury nears 4.5 per cent, the administration is getting really nervous, and usually that’s when they act. As investors you need to anticipate that,” she said. Other investors are simply waiting out the chaos, too worried about being caught offside by Trump’s next post on Truth Social. “We’re all doing the same thing — nothing,” said the chief investment officer of a North American hedge fund. “You can’t short oil because it could easily rip to $150. Or the war could end in five minutes.” Additional reporting by Kate Duguid and Aime Williams 心得/评论： 近期油价跟大盘呈现高度负相关的关系 而川普近期都在周末释出重大升级讯息 导致油价在周一开盘後大涨 但又在布伦特触及110左右进行降温 投资人如果持有大部位的大盘 不妨小部位的作多石油以进行风险对冲 --

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