原文标题： Oil jumps 10% on Iran conflict and could spike to $100 a barrel, analysts say 中文翻译标题： 油价因伊朗冲突暴涨 10%，分析师称可能飙升至每桶 100 美元 原文连结： https://reurl.cc/dqdObg 发布时间： March 1, 2026 8:44 PM GMT+8 记者署名： 路透社 Seher Dareen and Dmitry Zhdannikov 原文内容： LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) - Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war. 伦敦，3 月 1 日（路透社） —— 石油交易员表示，周日布兰特原油场外交易价格暴涨 10% 至每桶约 80 美元；同时分析师预测，在美国与以色列对伊朗发动袭击、使中东陷 入新战争後，油价可能会攀升至 100 美元的高位。 "While the military attacks are themselves supportive for oil prices, the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz," said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS. 「虽然军事攻击本身对油价有支撑作用，但这里的关键因素是霍尔木兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）的关闭，」ICIS 能源与炼油总监 Ajay Parmar 表示。 Most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said, after Tehran warned ships against moving through the waterway. More than 20% of global oil is moved through the Strait of Hormuz. 贸易消息人士指出，在德黑兰（伊朗政府）警告船只不要通过该水道後，大多数油轮船东 、石油巨头和贸易公司已暂停经由霍尔木兹海峡运输原油、燃料和液化天然气。全球超过 20% 的石油运输需经过霍尔木兹海峡。 "We expect prices to open (after the weekend) much closer to $100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait," Parmar said. 「我们预计（周末过後）开盘价格将更接近每桶 100 美元，且如果我们看到海峡长期中 断，价格甚至可能超过该水平，」Parmar 说。 Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to more than $100 a barrel, said RBC analyst Helima Croft. Barclays analysts also said prices could hit $100. 加拿大皇家银行（RBC）分析师 Helima Croft 表示，中东领导人此前已向华盛顿发出警 告，称对伊朗的战争可能导致油价跳涨至每桶 100 美元以上。巴克莱银行（Barclays） 的分析师也表示价格可能达到 100 美元。 The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Sunday to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April, a modest increase representing less than 0.2% of global demand. 由石油生产国组成的 OPEC+ 集团於周日达成协议，将从 4 月起每日增产 20.6 万桶（ bpd），这一小幅增长仅占全球需求不到 0.2%。 While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of 8 million to 10 million bpd of crude oil supply even after diverting some flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi pipeline, said Rystad energy economist Jorge Leon. 睿咨得能源（Rystad Energy）经济学家 Jorge Leon 表示，虽然可以使用一些替代基础 设施来绕过霍尔木兹海峡，但即便在将部分流量分流至沙乌地阿拉伯的「东西管道」和阿 布达比管道後，海峡关闭带来的净影响仍将导致每日 800 万至 1,000 万桶的原油供应损 失。 Rystad expects prices to rise by $20 to about $92 a barrel when trade opens. The Iran crisis also prompted Asian governments and refiners to assess oil stockpiles and alternative shipping routes and supplies. Rystad 预计当市场开盘时，油价将上涨 20 美元，达到每桶约 92 美元。伊朗危机也 促使亚洲各国政府和炼油厂开始评估石油库存，以及寻找替代的运输航线与供应来源。 P.S. 中文由Gemini翻译员协助翻译。 心得/评论： A.I.的好处是可以直接帮我翻译路透即时新闻XD 布兰特原油场外交易已经到每桶80美元!! OPEC+那点增产量看样子是来不及阿~ 油价如果继续喷，通膨又要再起啦， 期待的降息可能又要往後延， 还是希望战事能快点结束~ 各位石油大亨怎麽看呢? --

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