甲骨文违约风险 16年高点 https://money.udn.com/money/story/123398/9195561 2025/12/11 01:38:31 经济日报 编译林文彬／综合外电 被视为人工智慧（AI）题材领先指标的甲骨文（Oracle）公司近来情势急转直下，不只股价 过去三个月大跌逾三成，为该公司债券买保险的信用违约交换（CDS）利差也持续快速扩大 ，攀上16年高点，令外界对大型科技公司以债务为燃料的AI支出热潮更加忧心。 随着资本支出高昂和一些协议形成循环引发许多质疑，甲骨文股价已从9月10日写下的历史 高点大跌33%。FactSet数据显示，这家商业软体和资料库大厂的股票空单余额，已从5月底1 ,570万股增至目前的2,440万股。 另据彭博资讯数据，甲骨文5年期CDS利差12月5日收在128个基点，是2009年3月金融危机高 峰期以来最高水准。摩根士丹利分析师泰勒（Lindsay Tyler）预测，基於甲骨文未来融资 计画及能否仰赖OpenAI兑现承诺营收，仍充满不确定性，该公司5年期CDS利差短期可能触及 150个基点。 分析师表示，甲骨文试探这波债务驱动支出热潮极限的方式，比其他大型科技公司都来得激 进，宛如AI矿坑的金丝雀，是评估AI投资热潮是否健康指标。天利投资固定收益研究分析师 利德尔（Nathan Liddle）指出，甲骨文现金流远比同业薄弱，债务水准较高，信用评等则 较低。标普全球评级给予甲骨文BBB评等，Alphabet和Meta都是AA。 心得 刚刚财报公布 甲骨文跳水10% 债务比预期高 营收比预期低 ORCL posted mixed Nov-Q results, with revenue rising 14% to $16.1B, slightly mis sing the 15% forecast, while non-GAAP EPS of $2.26 significantly beat consensus of $1.64 from $2.7B Ampere gain. Operating margins compressed to 29% from 30% de spite revenue growth due to infrastructure mix. We believe rising debt (exceeded $108B gross), negative FCF (-$13.2B LTM), high OpenAI concentration risk, and m argin compression create increasing investment risks. Remaining performance obli gations surged to $523B (+438%), slightly above our view, but remain highly conc entrated to OpenAI's +$300B commitment. Cloud revenue rose 34% to $8.0B, led by Infrastructure as a Service at $4.1B (+68%), while multicloud database emerged a s the fastest-growing segment at +817% from low levels. We expect ORCL to remain FCF negative through at least FY 27 as capex of $35.5B outpaces operating cash flow. In our view, although growth potential is enticing, investors should be lo oking for cleaner AI stories given financial concerns. --

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