原文标题： China imports no US soybeans in September for first time in seven years 原文连结：https://tinyurl.com/4bez5jeu 发布时间：October 20, 2025 11:27 AM GMT+8 记者署名：By Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson 原文内容： BEIJING (Reuters) - China imported no soybeans from the U.S. in September, the first time since November 2018 that shipments fell to zero, while South American shipments surged from a year earlier, as buyers shunned American cargoes during the ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. 北京（路透社）——中国在九月份未从美国进口任何大豆，这是自2018年11月以来首次进 口量降至零。与此同时，南美地区的大豆出货量则较去年同期大幅增加，原因是中美这两 个世界最大经济体之间的贸易争端持续，使得中国买家避开美国货源。 Imports last month from the U.S. fell to zero from 1.7 million metric tons a year earlier, data from China's General Administration of Customs showed on Monday. 中国海关总署周一公布的数据显示，上月自美国进口量从去年同期的170万吨降至零。 Shipments fell because of the high tariffs China has imposed on U.S. imports and as previously harvested U.S. supplies, known as old-crop beans, have already been traded. China is the world's biggest soybean importer. 出货量下降的原因在於中国对美国进口大豆课徵高额关税，且美国先前收成的「旧作大豆 」已几乎售罄。此外，中国是全球最大的大豆进口国。 "This is mainly due to tariffs. In a typical year, some old-crop beans would still enter the market," said Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures. 「这主要是因为关税所致。在一般年份里，仍会有部分旧作大豆进入市场，」京都期货分 析师万成志指出。 Brazil arrivals last month jumped 29.9% year-on-year to 10.96 million tons, accounting for 85.2% of China's total imports of the oilseed, customs data showed, while shipments from Argentina rose 91.5% to 1.17 million tons, or 9% of the total. 海关数据显示，巴西上月大豆到港量年增29.9%，达1,096万吨，占中国大豆总进口量的85 .2%；阿根廷出货量则暴增91.5%，达117万吨，占总进口量的9%。 China's soybean imports reached 12.87 million metric tons in September, the second-highest level on record. 中国九月大豆总进口量达1,287万吨，创下历史第二高纪录。 China has not purchased any U.S. soybean cargoes from this autumn's harvest. The window for U.S. soybean purchases is rapidly closing as buyers secure shipments through November, largely from Brazil and Argentina, helped by Argentina's brief tax holiday. 中国至今未采购任何美国今年秋季的新作大豆。由於买家已锁定11月前的船期，主要从巴 西与阿根廷进货（阿根廷近期还推出短暂的出口税优惠），美国大豆的采购窗口正迅速关 闭。 Without a breakthrough in trade talks, U.S. farmers could face billions in losses as Chinese crushers continue sourcing from South America. Beijing, however, may also face a potential supply crunch early next year before Brazil 's new crops hit the market. 若贸易谈判无突破，美国农民可能面临数十亿美元损失，因中国榨油厂将继续自南美采购 。然而，在巴西新作尚未上市前，中国也可能在明年初面临供应短缺风险。 "A soybean supply gap may emerge in China between February and April next year if there's no trade deal in place. Brazil has already shipped a huge volume, and no one knows how much old-crop stock remains," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. 北京农业谘询公司 AgRadar 创办人项进（Johnny Xiang）表示：「若没有达成贸易协议 ，中国可能在明年2月至4月间出现大豆供应缺口。巴西已出口巨量货物，但没人确定剩余 的旧作存量有多少。」 Trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington appear to be regaining momentum after weeks of fresh tariff threats and export controls. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he believed a soybean deal would be reached. 在连续数周的关税威胁与出口管制之後，中美之间的贸易谈判似乎重新获得动能。美国总 统唐纳德·川普周日表示，他相信双方将达成大豆协议。 For the January-September period, China imported 63.7 million tons from Brazil , up 2.4% year-on-year, and 2.9 million tons from Argentina, up 31.8% year-on- year. 今年1至9月期间，中国自巴西进口6,370万吨，年增2.4%；自阿根廷进口290万吨，年增31 .8%。 Even as Chinese buyers are shunning this year's U.S. harvest, purchases earlier in 2025 mean that year-to-date imports of American beans have totalled 16.8 million tons, up 15.5%, data showed. 尽管中国买家避开今年美国新作，但由於年初已采购部分货源，2025年迄今美国大豆进口 总量仍达1,680万吨，年增15.5%。 心得/评论： 中国策略：透过「选择性进口」与「延迟采购」， 同时向南美分散依赖，让川普政府在政治上承受压力。 川普策略：透过公开信心表态（相信会达成大豆协议）， 向农民与市场传递「可控」讯息，稳定选前情绪。 --

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