原文标题： Why U.S. Beef Prices Keep Scaling New Heights 原文连结： https://www.investopedia.com/why-beef-prices-keep-scaling-new-heights-11769774 发布时间： July 12, 2025 08:00 AM EDT 记者署名： Lyle Niedens 原文内容： Why U.S. Beef Prices Keep Scaling New Heights KEY TAKEAWAYS The lowest U.S. cattle inventories in 73 years have pushed U.S. beef prices to all-time highs in recent months. Reduced slaughter is forecast to limit beef production in the months ahead and into 2026. Tariffs and a ban on cattle shipments from Mexico could crimp otherwise strong beef imports that have helped pick up the slack. U.S. beef cattle supplies have reached their lowest point since the Truman Administration, propelling beef prices to all-time highs that likely will persist in the months ahead. Covid-19 pandemic disruptions, drought in the western U.S. and meatpacking industry consolidation all have played a role in declining cattle inventories in recent years. Now, with supplies down, tariffs and Mother Nature may limit beef and cattle imports, maintaining upward pressure on prices. This week, the U.S. reinstituted a ban on cattle imports from Mexico because of concerns about screwworm, a flesh-eating larvae that can spread throughout cattle herds.1 Prices Surge Ground beef prices reached an average of $5.98 per pound in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.2 That's a 16% increase from the same month a year ago and 46% higher than four years ago. A broader measure of retail beef prices, including steaks and roasts, from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows a 17% increase since the beginning of 2023.3 Beef prices that have repeatedly scaled new all-time highs this year directly reflect the declining availability of cattle for slaughter. As of Jan. 1, U.S. cattle inventories were at the lowest level since 1952.4 Inventories have declined steadily since the pandemic.5 As consumer demand has remained steady, the lower supply has pushed up prices at cattle auctions and prices for cattle fattened at feed yards. Feeder cattle and live cattle prices have surged 21% and 14% so far this year, and average prices for slaughter steers have reached record highs.67 Limited Production As cattle prices have risen, meatpackers in May dropped the number of animals they slaughtered for the first time during that month since at least 1970.6 Typically, slaughter increases in spring months as meatpackers prepare for summer grilling season demand. As a result, the USDA in June lowered its 2025 U.S. beef production projection slightly, and production in 2026 now is forecast to fall 4% from this year, likely keeping a high floor on prices. Beef imports have helped pick up some of the supply slack this year, with U.S. beef imports up 28% through April. However, import prices have surged, exacerbated by tariffs the Trump Administration has levied on key foreign markets.6 That could limit import demand moving forward. 机翻： 为何美国牛肉价格持续创下新高 主要观点 - 美国牛只存栏量创73年来最低，推高近期美国牛肉价格至历史新高。 - 预计未来数月至2026年，屠宰量减少将限制牛肉产量。 - 对墨西哥牛只进口的关税和禁令可能限制原本强劲的牛肉进口，这些进口有助於弥补供 应缺口。 - 美国肉牛供应量已降至杜鲁门（Truman）政府时期以来的最低点，牛肉价格创下历史新 高，且这种高价可能在未来数月持续。 新冠疫情（Covid-19）造成的干扰、美国西部乾旱以及肉品加工业的整合，近年来皆对牛 只存栏量下降产生影响。 现在，随着供应减少，关税和自然因素可能限制牛肉及牛只进口，持续推高价格压力。本 周，美国因担心螺旋虫（screwworm，一种会侵蚀牛只的食肉幼虫）在牛群中传播，重新 对墨西哥牛只进口实施禁令。 价格飙升 根据劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）数据，5月绞牛肉价格平均达到每磅5. 98美元。与去年同期相比上涨16%，与四年前相比上涨46%。美国农业部（U.S. Department of Agriculture）对零售牛肉价格（包括牛排和烤肉）的更广泛衡量显示， 自2023年初以来价格上涨17%。 今年牛肉价格屡次创下历史新高，直接反映出可供屠宰的牛只数量下降。截至1月1日，美 国牛只存栏量降至1952年以来的最低水平。疫情爆发以来，存栏量持续稳定下降。 由於消费者需求保持稳定，供应减少推高了牛只拍卖价格以及饲养场育肥牛的价格。今年 至今，育肥牛和活牛价格分别上涨21%和14%，屠宰用公牛的平均价格也创下历史新高。 产量受限 随着牛只价格上涨，肉品加工商在5月首次减少屠宰量，这是至少自1970年以来该月首次 出现屠宰量下降。通常，春季屠宰量会增加，以因应夏季烧烤季的需求。 因此，美国农业部在6月略微下调了2025年美国牛肉产量预测，预计2026年产量将较今年 下降4%，这可能使价格保持高位。 今年牛肉进口在一定程度上弥补了供应缺口，截至4月，美国牛肉进口量增加28%。然而， 进口价格也随之上涨，川普政府对主要外国市场徵收的关税加剧了这一情况。这可能限制 未来的进口需求。 心得/评论： 美国自己的牛肉都不太够用了，同时库存来到来到73年最低。 台湾假如真的降美国牛关税暂时也不会对台湾造成太大冲击吧。 另外美股麦当劳、YUM股价不知道会不会受到牛肉价格影响？ --

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