原文标题：Fed’s Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as ‘supply shocks’ provide policy challenges 原文连结：https://reurl.cc/lzMar9 发布时间：2025-5-15 记者署名：Jeff Cox 原文内容： Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that longer-term interest rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux. In remarks that focused on the central bank’s policy framework review, last done in the summer of 2020, Powell noted that conditions have changed significantly over the past five years. During the period, the Fed witnessed a period of surging inflation, pushing it to historically aggressive interest rate hikes. Powell said that even with longer-term inflation expectations largely in line with the Fed’s 2% target, the era of near-zero rates is not likely to return anytime soon. “Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be more volatile going forward than in the inter-crisis period of the 2010s,” Powell said in prepared remarks for the Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington, D.C. “We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks.” The Fed held its benchmark borrowing rate near zero for seven years following the financial crisis in 2008. Since December 2024, the overnight lending rate has been in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, most recently trading at 4.33%. The “supply shocks” remarks are similar to those Powell has delivered over the past several weeks cautioning that policy changes could put the Fed in a difficult balancing act between supporting employment and controlling inflation. Though he did not mention President Donald Trump’s tariffs in his Thursday remarks, the central bank chief in recent days has noted the likelihood that tariffs will slow growth and boost inflation. However, the extent of either impact is difficult to gauge, particularly as Trump recently has backed off the more aggressive duties pending a 90-day negotiating window. Nevertheless, the Fed has been reluctant to ease policy after cutting its benchmark rate by a full percentage point last year. 联准会主席鲍尔表示，随着经济与政策环境改变，长期利率可能维持在较高水准。他指出 ，未来供给冲击可能更频繁且持久，使通膨更不稳定，这将对央行构成挑战。 尽管通膨预期仍接近2%，但鲍尔认为近零利率时代不太可能回来。他并未明指川普的关税 ，但曾提及关税可能导致经济成长放缓与物价上升，影响仍难评估。 心得/评论： 老鲍一句「高实质利率可能会常态化」是不是等於预告？ 长债殖利率不会轻易回落 债券价格难有大反弹 供给冲击+关税效应 = 通膨压力回来了 债蛙又要哭了？ --

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