川普政策风险如何反映在美国国债上 https://is.gd/Bw5GYP 路透 报导：Davide Barbuscia 编译：Paritosh Bansal 及 Daniel Flynn April 8, 202511:56 PM GMT+8 纽约，4月8日（路透社） — 自川普总统於1月上任以来，美国基准国债的殖利率大幅下降 ，但这个数字中所蕴含的一项风险指标——「期间溢酬」（term premium）——却始终维持 正值，显示投资人对前景仍感到不安。 「期间溢酬」是殖利率中的一个组成部分，用来衡量投资人在将资金借出长达10年期间所要 求的风险补偿。尽管10年期美债殖利率自川普就职以来下跌了约50个基点，但期间溢酬依然 维持在正值。 这项理论性指标反映了市场对未来货币政策走向的不确定性、对美国政府信用的评估等各种 因素。纽约联邦储备银行根据一个广泛使用的模型所计算的期间溢酬显示，该指标自去年底 川普声势走高并最终当选後便持续转为正值，而这在过去数年是罕见的。 如今，川普重塑美国对外关系的作法——发动贸易战、挑战美国制度与法治基础——已引起 七位投资人与分析师的警惕，他们指出美国政府信用风险正在上升。 两位市场专家指出，美国国债的期间溢酬可能正反映这些政治与制度风险。 「政府运作稳定性令人疑虑，联邦体制未来的轮廓也不明朗，最终甚至出现对法治与政策可 预测性的担忧，」Lazard资产管理的首席市场策略师Ronald Temple说。 殖利率下跌，但风险补偿仍在：债券市场的警讯 持续为正的期间溢酬可能是债券市场「警察」（bond vigilantes）蠢蠢欲动的早期信号。 这些投资人可能透过提高政府融资成本，对川普政策施加约束，尽管近期美债市场仍维持强 劲。 部分投资人表示，川普的政策议程正在削弱美国资产的长期吸引力，这可能最终会使美国调 降利率变得更加困难。 「我认为从长期来看，这些政策对美国经济成长是负面影响，对美国作为投资目的地也是不 利的，」Temple说。「最终——不是明天——这会提高美国政府、企业与消费者的资金成本 。」 当然，期间溢酬的坚挺可能受多种因素影响，并不容易厘清。 Piper Sandler全球政策与资产配置主管Benson Durham表示，由於美国国债在全球金融市场 中的主导地位，美债价格往往受到与股票吸引力的相对比较、以及市场对财政赤字预期等多 种因素驱动。 不过，Durham也补充说，期间溢酬同时反映了不断上升的政治风险。 风险仍在上升：即使殖利率大跌，期间溢酬仍正值 上周市场剧烈震荡，即使美债殖利率急剧下滑，纽约联准会的模型仍显示期间溢酬维持在正 值。这是在川普将进口关税提高至20世纪初水平後发生的。 周四，基准殖利率下跌14个基点，但期间溢酬仅下滑2个基点；周五殖利率再跌6个基点，期 间溢酬也仅下降至25个基点，根据数据显示。 这个模型由法兰克福金融管理学院（Frankfurt School of Finance and Management）金融 与货币经济学教授Emanuel Moench及其他两位经济学家开发。Moench在访谈中表示，这个模 型提供了「对美债市场风险的统计代理指标」。虽然它反映政策风险，但无法完全拆解对债 券价格造成影响的各种因素。 「如果你无法再将美国国债视为避险资产，」Moench表示，「这就会对期间溢酬形成上行压 力。」 政策风险引发投资人不安 超过六位投资人与分析师表示，川普政府在治理、经济与外交等诸多政策上的方向令人不安 。 例如，试图重塑联邦政府架构、削减政府支出、对主要贸易夥伴（包括盟国）徵收大规模关 税，这些举措已经打击了企业与消费者信心，也带来经济衰退的阴影。 此外，川普政府倾向采用非常规手段处理债务问题，并积极推动高额减税政策，也使得债券 投资人感到风险升高。分析师表示，这可能进一步恶化美国36兆美元的债务总额与偿债能力 。 对外强硬的手段也促使外国银行与官员寻找替代美元与美国资产的方案。虽然投资人普遍认 为短期内没有替代方案——由於美国经济规模、资本市场深度与制度稳健性——但长远来看 情况可能改变。 英国投资公司Ruffer的基金经理Matt Smith表示：「过去依赖美国安全保护伞的债权国—— 如日本、韩国、台湾、新加坡和德国——持有大量美国资产。如果这些国家开始减码或只是 对汇率风险进行对冲，美国资产与美元都可能大幅贬值。」 Ruffer目前管理约240亿美元资产，其对美国风险资产的曝险极低，美元比重也接近零。Smi th表示，这反映了高估值与「政权转变的潜力」，指的是美国安全保护政策可能出现的重大 转向。 法治与制度风险：国际信心的根基动摇 分析师指出，川普政府与司法部门的冲突，可能在长期内侵蚀国际社会对美国制度的信任， 而这正是支撑外国投资人购买美国资产的根本。 一位不愿具名的信评机构消息人士表示，他们密切关注美国是否出现「法治基础」的侵蚀， 这会影响机构对美国制度强度的评估，而这是信用风险评级中的核心要素。 AXA投资管理公司的大卫・佩奇表示：「投资人担心川普政府正在削弱制度稳健性。」他指 出，政府未遵守法院命令、以及总统与官员公开攻击法官的言论，令人关注。 「如果美国长期以来强大的制度出现持续性变化，那麽全球资产配置可能因此转向，最终冲 击美国资产与美元，」佩奇说。 PGIM固定收益投资的首席地缘政治分析师梅希尔・马库也指出，投资人密切关注川普对总统 职权的广泛解释，也就是「单一行政权理论」（unitary executive theory）——这是一种 几乎所有决策权集中於总统的法律观点。 「我相信，随着时间推进，投资人会愈来愈关注川普试图建立的『单一行政体制』，即所有 政策决策都要经白宫通过，」马库说。「这绝对是个负面讯号。」 DoubleLine副投资长杰佛瑞・舍曼表示，政策不确定性最终可能导致外资信心恶化，促使资 本回流。 「到最後，人们会不想再跟你做生意，」舍曼说。「建立信任与良好关系需要很长的时间， 但摧毁它却可能在一夕之间完成。」 心得评论： 这篇路透社报导详尽解说了美债「期间溢酬」，简单说就是投资人开始怀疑美国政府的偿债 能力与风险示警。 文中也提到，若美债主要债权国开始对美债减码或汇率风险对冲，美元计价资产可能大幅贬 值。 另一个我自己想到的，若美债主要债权国为了减少对美贸易顺差而减码美债，换回本币，那 可能也有相同风险。 原文： NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury bond has fallen dramatically since President Donald Trump took office in January. But one measure of risk embedded in that number has remained positive, in a sign of inv estor nervousness. The term premium, a component of yields, is a measure of the compensation invest ors want for the risk of lending money for the life of a 10-year Treasury bond. It has stayed positive even as the yield on the 10-year has fallen about 50 basi s points since Trump's inauguration. The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start yo ur day. Sign up here. A theoretical measure, the term premium captures a variety of elements, includin g uncertainty about future monetary policy and the U.S. government's credit wort hiness, investors and academics say. The measure of term premium - calculated by the New York Federal Reserve, based on a widely followed model - shows it turned steadily positive late last year, t racking Trump's rising popularity and eventual election win, after years of bein g in the red. With Trump now rewriting the terms of U.S. engagement with the rest of the world - starting trade wars and appearing to test the strength of U.S. institutions a nd the rule of law - seven investors and analysts said the risks to U.S. governm ent's creditworthiness are increasing. Two separate market experts said the term premium on U.S. Treasuries was likely reflecting those risks. "There are questions around the stability of government functioning, uncertainty around the shape of the federal bureaucracy, and then ultimately questions incr easingly around the rule of law and predictability," said Ronald Temple, chief m arket strategist for Lazard's financial advisory and asset management businesses . In a statement, White House spokesman Kush Desai said Trump's economic agenda wi ll boost growth and reaffirm America's credibility, via reforms including tax cu ts and slashing wasteful government spending. He did not address Reuters' questi on about the term premium. Supporters of Trump's administration have cited the sharp fall in Treasury yield s as a sign of the debt market’s faith in his policies. But many investors say yields are being dragged lower by a deterioration in the U.S. economic outlook, which is causing interest rate expectations to drop. BOND VIGILANTES A persistently positive term premium could be an early sign that bond vigilantes - investors who may have the power to check Trump by making it punitively expen sive for the U.S. government to borrow - are stirring in the background despite the recent rally in Treasuries. Some investors said they are getting nervous that the Trump administration's pol icy agenda is eroding the long-term attractiveness of U.S. assets. This could ev entually make it harder for it to lower interest rates. "I think this is all net negative for U.S. growth in the long run, and it's a ne t negative for the U.S. as an investment destination," said Lazard's Temple. "Ov er time - not tomorrow - it raises the cost of capital for the U.S. government a nd for company and consumers in the country." To be sure, the stickiness in the term premium could point to a wide array of fa ctors, which are hard to delineate. Benson Durham, head of global policy and asset allocation at Piper Sandler, a fi nancial services firm, said given the Treasury market's outsized role in global finance, prices of U.S. government bonds tend to reflect drivers such as Treasur y bonds' attractiveness versus stocks and investor expectations on fiscal defici ts. But Durham added that the term premium would also capture rising political risks . POSITIVE RISK Amid a market rout last week, the New York Fed's model for the term premium has remained positive even as benchmark yields dropped, after Trump raised tariffs o n imports to levels last seen in the early 1900s. On Thursday, when benchmark yields dropped 14 basis points, the term premium fel l only 2 basis points. On Friday, when yields fell another 6 basis points, the t erm premium fell 6 basis points to 25 basis points, data shows. Emanuel Moench, a professor of financial and monetary economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, is one of three economists who created the mo del used by the New York Fed. In an interview, Moench said his framework provided "a statistical proxy of the risk in the Treasury market". Although it reflected policy risks, it could not d isentangle the various factors weighing on bonds, he said. "If you can't really trust Treasuries as a safe-haven asset anymore," Moench sai d, it "should put upward pressure on the term premium." POLICY NERVOUSNESS More than half a dozen investors and analysts said the Trump administration’s p olicies across a wide range of issues, from governance to economics and foreign relations, were rankling them. Trump's attempt to remake the federal government and cut back on government spen ding, for example, while imposing massive tariffs on major U.S. trading partners , including its closest allies, has disrupted business and consumer confidence a nd raised the spectre of a recession. Its willingness to explore unconventional strategies to manage U.S. debt and eag erness to push through expensive tax cuts are also risks for bond investors, as it could worsen the country’s $36 trillion debt pile and its ability to service it, analysts have said. Its strong-arm approach to foreign countries, both allies and foes, has led to a search for alternatives to U.S. assets and the dollar, foreign bankers and offi cials have said. While investors said there is no alternative in the near term due to the size of the U.S. economy, the depth of its capital markets and the strength of its inst itutions, that might change over time. "Creditor countries that previously assumed they were part of the U.S. security umbrella ... own a lot of U.S. assets," said Matt Smith, a fund manager at Briti sh investment firm Ruffer. "If they begin to unwind those exposures, or merely h edge their currency risk, there could be a marked decline in both the dollar and U.S. risk assets." He cited countries like Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Germany. Ruffer, which oversees about $24 billion, had a low exposure to U.S. risk assets – and a near-zero weight to the U.S. dollar – in reflection of both high valu ations and "regime change potential," Smith said, referring to possible changes in U.S. provision of security protections. RULE OF LAW The Trump administration’s other actions, such as its clashes with the judiciar y, could over time erode confidence in U.S. institutional strength, a key pillar of foreign demand for U.S. assets, six analysts said. A source at a major credit ratings agency, who requested anonymity to speak more candidly, said they were closely following developments that could point to an erosion of the rule of law in the country, which is relevant to how ratings agen cies assess institutional strength - a key component of their credit risk views. "There is investor concern that the administration is weakening institutional st rength," said David Page, head of macro research at AXA Investment Management, a n investment firm with nearly $1 trillion in assets under management. Page pointed to concerns that the administration was failing to comply with cour t orders and officials, including Trump, were verbally attacking judges. "A persistent change in the U.S.’ long-standing history of strong institutions would certainly risk a change in global asset allocation practice, which could h ave an impact on U.S. assets and the dollar," Page said. Mehill Marku, lead geopolitical analyst at PGIM Fixed Income, a New Jersey-headq uartered investment firm with $837 billion in assets under management, said inve stors were also watching Trump's expansive interpretation of his powers as Presi dent, a legal doctrine called the "unitary executive" theory. "I'm sure investors are going to pay a lot more attention as we go forward in th e so-called unitary presidency that clearly President Trump wants to establish, where everything goes through the White House," Marku said. "This is definitely a negative." Jeffrey Sherman, deputy chief investment officer at U.S. bond firm DoubleLine, s aid policy uncertainty could contribute to a deterioration of foreign investor s entiment that may eventually encourage a repatriation of capital. "Ultimately you get yourself into a place where people don't want to do business with you," Sherman said. "It takes a long time to build up positive sentiment, just like a relationship and trust, but you can destroy it very quickly." --

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