尽管川普推行促进成长议程，「滞胀」担忧仍困扰美国市场 https://is.gd/60xPA0 路透 作者：Suzanne McGee和Davide Barbuscia 2025 年 2 月 20 日下午 2:21 概要： 1.川普关税加剧通膨和低成长担忧 2.调查显示基金经理人的滞胀预期上升 3.有些人仍乐观地认为关税对经济成长的冲击将是暂时的 4.分析家警告不要对川普的政策感到自满 2 月 20 日（路透社）——顽固的通货膨胀和唐纳德·特朗普总统的强硬贸易政策重新引发 了人们对滞胀的担忧。 过去50年来，滞胀卷土重来的可能性不断出现，这将对一系列资产带来压力，但并未对投资 者的投资组合构成真正的威胁。尽管经济学家和投资组合经理还不愿意说这次的情况有所不 同，但随着贸易战和惩罚性关税的前景给美国经济成长蒙上阴影，这种可怕的情形在最近几 周再次成为投资者面临的主要风险。 布兰迪万全球固定收益策略投资组合经理杰克麦金太尔表示：“滞胀肯定已经重新出现，因 为我们的这些政策可能会损害消费需求，而持续的通膨限制了美联储的操控能力。” “从 长远来看，这不再是一个零可能性的情况了。” 本月早些时候，滞胀难题的关键部分——通货膨胀拒绝降温——更加牢固地存在，当时政府 数据显示，1 月份消费者价格以 2023 年 8 月以来的最快月度速度上涨，使年通膨率达到 3%。 另一个难题是美国经济成长仍悬而未决，而川普的关税可能会增加通膨压力，从而打破平衡 。 Innovator Capital Management 首席投资策略师 Tim Urbanowicz 表示：“比起通膨风险 ，我们更担心的是滞胀。” “我们需要应对通膨的顽固基础，除此之外，关税还有可能成 为消费者税，拖累利润和经济成长，从而减缓经济成长。” 美国银行周二对全球基金经理人进行的一项调查显示，预计未来一年将出现滞胀（该银行将 其定义为增长低於趋势但通膨高於趋势）的投资者比例达到七个月来的最高水平。同时，调 查显示，投资人仍看好股市，贸易战被视为低机率风险。 川普虽然在2月初将对加拿大和墨西哥进口产品徵收新关税的计画推迟了一个月，但他已对 所有中国进口产品徵收10%的新关税，并宣布对全球钢铁和铝进口徵收关税。 他还责成其经济团队制定对所有向美国进口产品徵税的国家徵收互惠关税的计划，并於本周 表示计划对汽车、半导体和药品进口徵收 25% 的关税。 一些投资者认为，关税对经济成长造成的冲击将是暂时的。 资本集团资产类别服务主管 Maddi Dessner 表示，从长期来看，关税甚至可能促进成长， 推动那些受益於全球竞争减少的产业发展。另一方面，它们的最初影响可能会增加价格压力 。 她表示：「事实是，它可能介於这两者之间。」她还补充称，关税是 Capital Group 现在 预测 10 年期美国国债收益率在 20 年内将达到 3.9% 的原因之一，高於去年预测的 3.7% 。 原文： 'Stagflation' fears haunt US markets despite Trump's pro-growth agenda Summary： Trump's tariffs fuel low growth fears on top of inflation Fund managers' stagflation expectations rise, survey shows Some remain optimistic tariff hit on growth would be temporary Analysts warn about complacency towards Trump policies Feb 20 (Reuters) - Stubborn inflation and President Donald Trump's hard-line tra de policies have rekindled fears of stagflation, a worrying mix of sluggish grow th and relentless inflation that haunted the U.S. in the 1970s, even as markets remain upbeat on his pro-growth agenda. The potential return of stagflation, which would pressure a range of assets, has been flagged periodically over the past 50 years but not materialized as a real threat to investor portfolios. While economists and portfolio managers are not ready to say that this time is different, the dreaded scenario has crept back as a key risk for investors in recent weeks, as the prospect of trade wars and pun itive tariffs cast a shadow over U.S. growth. "Stagflation has definitely re-emerged as a possibility because we have these po licies that could hurt consumer demand even while persistent inflation limits th e Federal Reserve's ability to maneuver," said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for Brandywine Global's fixed income strategies. "It's not a zero-possibility sc enario any more, by a long shot." A key piece of the stagflation puzzle - inflation that refuses to cool down - lo dged more firmly into place earlier this month, when government data showed cons umer prices rose in January at their fastest monthly pace since August 2023, bri nging the annual rate of inflation to 3%. The other piece of the puzzle, U.S. economic growth, hangs in the balance, with Trump's tariffs threatening to add inflationary pressure that could tip the scal e. "What continues to concern us more than the risk of inflation is stagflation," s aid Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist at Innovator Capital Management. "There is that sticky base of inflation to contend with but on top of that, tar iffs have the potential to slow down the economy by becoming a tax on consumers and weighing on profits and economic growth." A Bank of America survey of global fund managers on Tuesday showed the proportio n of investors expecting stagflation - defined by the bank as below-trend growth and above-trend inflation - over the next year stood at a seven-month high. At the same time, investors remained bullish on stocks, with a trade war seen as a low-probability risk, the survey showed. While Trump postponed imposing new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico for a month at the beginning of February, he has rolled out a new 10% levy on all C hinese imports and announced tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports. He has also tasked his economics team with devising plans for reciprocal tariffs on every country that taxes U.S. imports, and this week said he plans to introd uce 25% tariffs on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports. Some investors believe any hit to growth from tariffs would be temporary. Over a longer-term horizon, tariffs could even promote growth, said Maddi Dessne r, head of asset class services at Capital Group, boosting industries that will benefit from less competition globally. On the other hand, their initial impact could increase price pressures. "The truth is it's probably going to be somewhere in between those two things," she said, adding tariffs were partly why Capital Group now forecasts 10-year Tre asury yields at 3.9% over a 20-year horizon, up from a 3.7% forecast last year. 心得评论： 1 月份消费者价格以 2023 年 8 月以来的最快月度速度上涨，使年通膨率达到 3%。 2.美国银行周二对全球基金经理人进行的一项调查显示，预计未来一年将出现滞胀的投资者 比例达到七个月来的最高水平。 3.投资人仍看好股市，贸易战被视为低机率风险。 4.Capital Group 预测 10 年期美国国债收益率在 20 年内将达到 3.9% （高於去年预测的 3.7%）。 结论：投资人仍看好股市，还有上涨可能，唯需注意贸易战带来的滞胀风险。 联准会主席鲍尔在2026年5月15日才下台，联准会不听川普的，川普还有多少工具可用？ --

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