原文标题： U.S. economy on track for soft landing - Dallas Fed 原文连结： https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/bonds/idUSN26247192/ 发布时间： September 27, 2007 3:36 AM GMT+8 记者署名： Reuters 原文内容： WASHINGTON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures are easing and the economy should manage a soft landing, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said on Wednesday. "The latest data reinforce the impression of an economy in which growth remains moderate and inflationary pressures are likely to continue to subside," it said in a national economic review written by senior Dallas Fed staff economist Tao Wu. "A soft landing with a slow convergence to trend growth is probable, unless uncertainties among households and investors suddenly trigger a sharp consumption slowdown or the credit crunch spreads beyond housing the sector," he said. The U.S. central bank slashed interest rates by an unexpectedly bold half percentage point last week to 4.75 percent to shield the economy from the slumping housing market, which has triggered a global credit crunch. Interest rate futures currently imply an 86 percent probability the Fed will cut rates by another quarter point at its next scheduled meeting, on Oct. 30-31. "Macroeconomic implications of the credit tightening are still quite limited so far, although potentially could be more severe over the coming quarters if the mortgage credit crunch goes further (and) deeper and spreads to other sectors," Wu said. The Fed warned in the policy statement that accompanied its rate cut that the outlook for the economy was uncertain, while some inflation risks remain. Wu said the latest data from the hosing sector showed that it had yet to bottom out, while a 4,000 dip in the number of non-farm jobs in August was 'alarming'. On the other hand, he noted that the August consumer price index declined by 0.1 percent compared with the previous month while measures of underlying inflation had also softened. "Recent months have seen a gradual deceleration in the growth of other core consumer price indexes as well. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures edged up 0.1 percent in July, having risen 1.9 percent over the past 12 months," he said. 机器翻译： 华盛顿，9月26日（路透社）- 美国的通胀压力正在减轻， 经济应该能够实现软着陆，达拉斯联邦储备银行在周三表示。 "最新数据强化了这样的印象：经济增长仍然适度，通胀压力可能会继续减少。" 达拉斯联邦储备银行高级经济学家Tao Wu在一份全国经济评论中表示。 "除非家庭和投资者之间的不确定性突然引发消费急剧放缓， 或信贷紧缩扩散到住房以外的其他领域， 否则软着陆和缓慢趋近趋势增长是可能的。"他说。 美国中央银行上周意外大幅下调利率半个百分点至4.75%， 以保护经济免受下滑的住房市场影响，该市场已引发全球信贷紧缩。 目前的利率期货显示， 联邦储备银行在下次预定会议（10月30日至31日）上再降息四分之一点的概率为86%。 "信贷紧缩的宏观经济影响到目前为止仍然相当有限， 尽管如果抵押贷款信贷紧缩进一步加深并扩散到其他领域， 未来几个季度可能会更加严重。"Tao Wu说。 联邦储备银行在伴随降息的政策声明中警告，经济前景不确定， 尽管仍存在一些通胀风险。 Tao Wu表示，来自住房领域的最新数据显示，该领域尚未触底， 而8月份非农就业人数减少4,000的情况"令人担忧"。 另一方面，他指出，8月份的消费者物价指数较上个月下降了0.1%， 而基础通胀的指标也有所减弱。 "最近几个月，其他核心消费者物价指数的增长也逐渐放缓。 核心个人消费支出在7月份上升了0.1%，在过去12个月中上升了1.9%。"他说。 心得/评论： 这次有不一样吗？华尔街今年应该是拿不同剧本吧？ 次贷危机一开始时没有QE 是不是只要JPow带着他的印钞机重新开始QE 一切都会好起来的 对吗？ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 125.229.76.233 (台湾) ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Stock/M.1726707288.A.F2B.html