https://www.pttweb.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694237467.A.9B8 这篇文章很可惜的被删掉了 其实ptt上有很多篇文章都在谈论利率，如 https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Stock/M.1694616152.A.269.html https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Stock/M.1694611617.A.C3E.html https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Stock/M.1694391683.A.776.html 等等，多不胜数 不过我也不怪板主，毕竟板主是无给职，每天要花那麽多时间维持板面也是很辛苦的 。 进入正文 台湾人普遍都对利率太乐观了 美国房贷利率7% 全世界平均房贷利率6% 台湾房贷利率2% 日本房贷利率1.5% 全世界台湾应该是第二名，只输日本而已 。 美国纵然降息，他还有7% 利率这个东西，他是看绝对数字，而不是相对数字 举例来说 医师的薪水一直下降 服务员的薪水一直上升 有人会因为这样不去当医师而跑去当服务员吗? 医师薪水长期走降，但还是很高 服务员薪水长期走升，但还是很低 。 全世界利率平均是6% 就算下降2%，那也还有4%，是台湾整整2倍之多 。 https://www.thenewslens.com/article/168320 美国是2022/3开始升息，一共升了5.5%，2022/3之前美国的利率是很低的 全世界也跟美国一样，2022/3开始大幅升息，少数几个国家例外而已 台湾只升了0.5%，只有美国的1/10 像台湾这样的情况非常的少见，而且也不会长久 。 全世界的经济是连在一起的，现在有人硬要说全世界都很差，只有我还好??? 全世界的通膨是连在一起的，现在有人硬要说全世界都高通膨，只有我还好??? 这个是一定不会长久的 。 我说台湾房价会腰斩，这个是好意提醒你们，但你们听不进去，硬要认为我在唱衰，然後 乱检举，我也不知道该说些什麽 大多数的人都对台湾房价、台湾利率太乐观了 台湾独立於全世界的情况是不会长久的 ※ 引述《gothmog (上海极司非尔路76号)》之铭言： : 不负责翻译在最後 : Dollar to Rise Another 5% on Sticky Inflation, Acadian Says : The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming months as still- : elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward further policy ti : ghtening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management. : Bloomberg News : Anya Andrianova : Published Sep 12, 2023 ‧ : (Bloomberg) — The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming m : onths as still-elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward fu : rther policy tightening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management. : Hill, a global macro portfolio manager, sees the US currency gaining an addition : al 5% versus many peers, with the trigger coming as policy makers signal further : interest-rate hikes in the leadup to their Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting. He’s preppi : ng for that outcome by favoring the greenback against the Australian, New Zealan : d and Canadian dollars, as well as the yen. : His views on the Fed and the dollar proved prescient earlier this year. In Febru : ary, he correctly predicted that the yen would fall back toward the 32-year lows : it hit in 2022 as the Fed tightened further than many market participants antic : ipated. : The US currency stabilized on Tuesday, after falling from a six-month high Monda : y as authorities in Japan and China ramped up support for their currencies. But : as Hill sees it, the decline to start the week will amount to a bump in the road : as markets reprice the Fed’s path. It’s a chain of events he also expects wil : l push 10-year Treasury yields close to 5%, a level last seen in 2007, from roug : hly 4.3% now. : “The Fed may have to leave the possibility open of hiking further,” potentiall : y two or three more times, said the money manager, whose firm oversees about $10 : 0 billion. “Inflation actually going up away from global central banks’ target : s in the fourth quarter would be a game changer for markets.” : Read more: Fed Hikes Risk Dragging Yen Back to 145 Per Dollar, Acadian Says : Traders expect the Fed to stay on hold at a policy meeting next week, and see ro : ughly a 50% chance that it delivers another hike at the following decision Nov. : 1, before pivoting to cuts next year. The Fed pushed its benchmark rate to the h : ighest in more than two decades in July to tame inflation. : STORY CONTINUES BELOW : The dollar gained the past eight weeks, buoyed by the US economy’s resilience r : elative to other major peers, in particular Europe and China. : US consumer-price index data scheduled for release Wednesday is expected to show : inflation pressure reaccelerating, which risks jolting the Treasury market. The : CPI is expected to have risen 3.6% in August from a year earlier, from 3.2% in : July, even as the core measure — which removes food and energy costs — fell to : 4.3%, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey shows. : Read more: Bond Traders Brace for Risk Inflation Will Fuel Rate-Hike Bets : “Every time that inflation comes down some, markets and economists extrapolate : out that it will continue all the way down to 2% in short order,” Hill said. “ : But we are still well over 4% in US core inflation, and there is a good chance t : hat it stays there, or increases back up this autumn into early next year.” : Hill also anticipates dollar strength versus most emerging markets, with the yua : n, South Korean won and Brazilian real likely to lose the most. : He acknowledges that his outlook poses a risk to assets like stocks, which are v : ulnerable to any uptick in expectations for additional Fed tightening. : But if inflation is proving tough to tackle, policy makers’ “hands are complet : ely tied,” he said. “If inflation is going up, you can’t then all of a sudden : cut rates.” : In the “best case,” he said, in which inflation doesn’t accelerate as much as : he expects, the Fed refrains from hiking further, and instead stays on hold for : most of 2024. : (Updates market movement.) : 不负责翻译如下 : Acadian Asset Management（知名资产管理公司）管理着约1000亿美元的基金经理Clifton : Hill表示， : 未来几个月，美元将随着美国国债收益率的上涨而上涨，美元兑换其它货币将再上升5%（Fe : d 非常有可能在10/31-11/1 的会议上宣布加息） : 因为通膨打不下来，可能会推动美联储进一步收紧政策，至少再加息2-3次 : 他说：美国核心通膨还在4%以上 就不能说反通膨成功，反通膨没有成功 就不能提降息 : 结论： 救救美债？ --

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