原文标题： Fed minutes show members resolved to keep fighting inflation 原文连结： https://cnb.cx/3ILSXre 发布时间： PUBLISHED WED, FEB 22 20232:01 PM ES 记者署名： Jeff Cox 原文内容： -While the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting concluded with a smaller rate hike than most of those implemented since early 2022, officials stressed that their concern over inflation is high. -Inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target, the minutes stated. That came with labor markets that “remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.” Federal Reserve officials at their most recent meeting indicated that there are signs inflation is coming down, but not enough to counter the need for more interest rate increases, meeting minutes released Wednesday showed. While the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting concluded with a smaller rate hike than most of those implemented since early 2022, officials stressed that their concern over inflation is high. Inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target, the minutes stated. That came with labor markets that “remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.“ Consequently, the Fed approved a 0.25 percentage point rate increase that was the smallest hike since the first March 2022, taking the fed funds rate to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. But the minutes stated that the reduced pace came with a high level of concern that inflation was still a threat. “Participants noted that inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases but stressed that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained downward path,” the minutes said. The summary repeated that members believe “ongoing” rate hikes will be necessary. Though the quarter-point hike received unanimous approval, the minutes noted that not everyone was on board. A “few” members said they wanted a half-point, or 50 basis points, hike that would show even greater resolve to get inflation down. Since the meeting, regional presidents James Bullard of St. Louis and Loretta Mester of Cleveland have said they were among the group that wanted the more aggressive move. The minutes, however did not elaborate on how many a “few” were nor which Federal Open Market Committee members wanted the half-point increase. “The participants favoring a 50-basis point increase noted that a larger increase would more quickly bring the target range close to the levels they believed would achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, taking into account their views of the risks to achieving price stability in a timely way,” the minutes said. Since the meeting, Fed officials have emphasized the need to stay vigilant even while expressing optimism that recent inflation data has been encouraging. In a CNBC interview Wednesday, Bullard repeated his belief that going higher sooner would be more effective. But even with his push for more aggressive near-term policy, he said he thinks the peak, or terminal, rate should be around 5.375%, about in line with market pricing. Economic data from January show inflation running at a lower pace than its summer 2022 peak but is still percolating. The consumer price index rose 0.5% from December and is up 6.4% from the same point last year. The producer price index, which measures input costs at the wholesale level, rose 0.7% on the month and 6% annually. Both readings were above Wall Street expectations. The labor market also is hot, indicating that Fed hikes, while hitting the housing market and some other rate-sensitive areas, have yet to seep through to much of the economy. Even with the comments from Mester and Bullard, market pricing still indicates the strong likelihood of another quarter-point increase in March, followed by a couple more to bring the funds rate to a peak of 5.25%-5.5%. If the rate would land around the midpoint of that target, it would be the highest funds rate since 2001. Markets are concerned that if the Fed moves too quickly or too far, it could tip the economy into a recession. The minutes noted that “some” members see the risk of recession as “ elevated.” Other officials publicly have said they think the Fed can avoid a recession and achieve a “soft landing” for the economy that sees growth slowing considerably but not contracting. “Participants observed that the uncertainty associated with their outlooks for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation was high,” the minutes said. Among the risk factors cited were the war in Ukraine, the economic reopening in China and the possibility that the labor market could remain tighter for longer than expected. --- 浏览器翻译 --- 周三公布的会议纪要显示，美联储官员在最近的会议上表示，有迹象表明通胀正在下降， 但不足以应对进一步加息的必要性。 虽然 1 月 31 日至 2 月 1 日的会议结束时,加息幅度小於自 2022 年初以来实施的 大多数加息幅度，但官员们强调，他们对通胀的担忧很高。 会议纪要称，通胀“仍远高於”美联储2%的目标。随之而来的是劳动力市场“仍然非常紧 张，导致工资和物价持续上涨压力”。 因此，美联储批准加息 0.25 个百分点，这是自 2022 年 3 月 1 日以来的最小加息幅度 ，将联邦基金利率提高到 4.5%-4.75% 的目标区间。但会议纪要指出，放缓的步伐伴随着 对通胀仍然构成威胁的高度担忧。 会议纪要称：「出席者指出，过去三个月收到的通胀数据显示，月度价格上涨速度有所下 降，但强调需要更多证据证明在更广泛的价格范围内取得进展，才能确信通胀处於持续下 降的道路上。 摘要重申，成员们认为“持续”加息是必要的。尽管加息四分之一点得到了一致批准，但 会议纪要指出，并非所有人都同意。 “少数”成员表示，他们希望加息半个基点或50个基点，这将显示出降低通胀的更大决心 。 自会议以来，圣路易斯的地区总裁詹姆斯布拉德和克利夫兰的洛雷塔梅斯特表示，他们是 希望采取更积极举措的团体之一。然而，会议纪要没有详细说明「少数」有多少人，也没 有详细说明哪些联邦公开市场委员会成员希望增加半个百分点。 会议纪要称：「赞成加息50个基点的出席者指出，更大的加息将更快地使目标区间接近他 们认为可以实现足够限制立场的水准，同时考虑到他们对及时实现价格稳定的风险的看法 。 自会议以来，美联储官员强调需要保持警惕，即使对最近的通胀数据令人鼓舞表示乐观。 在周三接受CNBC采访时，布拉德重申了他的信念，即越早走越高会更有效。但他表示，即 使他推动了更激进的近期政策，他认为峰值或终端利率应该在5.375%左右，与市场定价大 致一致。 1 月份的经济数据显示，通胀速度低於 2022 年夏季的峰值，但仍在渗透。 消费者物价指数比12月上涨0.5%，同比上涨6.4%。衡量批发层面投入成本的生产者价格指 数环比上涨0.7%，同比上涨6%。这两个读数都高於华尔街的预期。 劳动力市场也很火热，这表明美联储的加息虽然打击了房地产市场和其他一些对利率敏感 的领域，但尚未渗透到经济的大部分地区。 即使有梅斯特和布拉德的评论，市场定价仍然表明，3月份再次上涨四分之一点的可能性 很大，随後又有几次将基金利率带到5.25%-5.5%的峰值。如果利率落在该目标的中点左右 ，这将是自2001年以来的最高基金利率。 市场担心，如果美联储行动太快或走得太远，可能会使经济陷入衰退。 会议纪要指出，「一些」成员认为经济衰退的风险“升高”。其他官员公开表示，他们认 为美联储可以避免经济衰退，并实现经济增长大幅放缓但不收缩的经济“软着陆”。 “与会者观察到，与他们对经济活动，劳动力市场和通货膨胀前景相关的不确定性很高， ”会议纪要说。 心得/评论： 其实就只是重申政策,然後有少数人喊50点. 另外就是通膨的控制,从原本的爆打式升息,变成精雕细琢的方式来控制. 所以可以预想的未来,大概就看数据说话,通膨高一点就升个半码吓吓他, 然後降息过程大概也是爱降不降,FOMC可能会重回答录机时代. --

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